Joseph G. Eisenhauer

Regression through the Origin

Summary This article describes situations in which regression through the origin is appropriate, derives the normal equation for such a regression and explains the controversy regarding its evaluative statistics. Differences between three popular software packages that allow regression through the origin are illustrated using examples from previous issues of Teaching Statistics.

The Entrepreneurial Decision: Economic Theory and Empirical Evidence

This paper Integrates three major traditions of economic thought into a model of entrepreneurial decision making. Several testable hypotheses are formulated, and the model Is estimated using a 33-year sample of aggregate time-series data for the U.S.

Survey measures of risk aversion and prudence

This paper utilizes a thought experiment conducted by the Bank of Italy to estimate absolute and relative risk aversion along with absolute and relative prudence for a broad cross-section of Italian households. Upper and lower bounds are calculated for each parameter, and comparisons are made across socio-demographic groups. Evidence is found of decreasing absolute risk aversion, decreasing absolute prudence, increasing relative risk aversion, and increasing relative prudence.

The prevalence of hyperbolic discounting: some European evidence

Experimental matching data are used from the 2000 Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) and the 2000 wave of the Center for Economic Research (CentER) Savings Survey at Tilburg University to compare the relative frequencies of hyperbolic and exponential discounters. Among 3200 Italian respondents and 1400 Dutch respondents, less than a quarter exhibited hyperbolic discounting. This finding is both statistically significant and robust with respect to various assumptions regarding utility; moreover, it holds across a wide variety of economic, social and demographic characteristics. The youngest, poorest, most urban and least educated individuals are the most likely to be hyperbolic discounters. In addition, it is found that hyperbolic discounters accumulate less wealth and are somewhat less likely than exponential discounters to utilize commitment devices to constrain their future choices.

Prudence and precautionary saving

Households save income for various reasons, including the need to plan for the future, the intention to leave a bequest, and the desire to guard against unforeseen expenditures and income fluctuations. Although it is widely believed that prudent individuals engage in precautionary saving, the extent of such saving is not well understood. This paper develops a model of saving with an explicit role for the Leland-Kimball measure of prudence. Estimation of the model using household-level data from Italy suggests an average value of relative prudence near 4 or 5, with approximately 15 to 36 percent of total saving being precautionary.

The Relevance of Precautionary Saving

Abstract This paper develops a model of personal saving that includes, unlike previous models appearing in the literature, an explicit role for the Leland-Kimball measure of prudence. Estimation of the model using Bank of Italy survey data suggests that about 20 per cent of total saving is driven by precautionary reasons.

Severity of illness and the welfare effects of moral hazard

The extent to which the moral hazard caused by health insurance represents economic inefficiency has been the subject of much debate. This paper incorporates health status in a model of moral hazard, and finds that seriously ill patients are likely to exhibit greater moral hazard than healthier patients but the proportion of moral hazard that is inefficient declines with the severity of illness. Because of these competing tendencies, the cost of resource misallocation is parabolic in the severity of illness. The effect of the consumer’s initial wealth endowment is also considered.

Risk Aversion and the Willingness to Pay for Insurance: A Cautionary Discussion of Adverse Selection

Textbooks frequently describe adverse selection as an almost inevitable feature of insurance markets with heterogeneous buyers and asymmetric information. But if low-risk applicants are more risk averse than their high-risk counterparts, the former may be as willing or more willing than the latter to purchase insurance at any given price. The present article discusses this possibility in several forms suitable for different levels of instruction, to help bridge the gap between insurance education and current research on this topic.

Risk aversion, wealth, and the DARA hypothesis: A new test

The Pratt-Arrow hypothesis of decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA) is widely invoked in economic models of uncertainty but empirical tests, especially those using nonexperimental data, have yielded mixed results. This paper reexamines the DARA hypothesis using an expected utility model of life insurance demand and a 23-year sample of aggregate time series data from the U.S. After controlling for household size, age, income, loss probabilities, premium expenses, and inflation, the effect of wealth on insurance demand is found to be positive and statistically significant in linear and loglinear regressions, explaining more than 93 percent of the variation in coverage. Thus, in contrast to the prevailing theory, this empirical test presents evidence of increasing absolute risk aversion.

The Monty Hall Matrix

A general procedure for solving the ‘Monty Hall problem’ is demonstrated using probability matrices, and an n-dimensional extension is presented.