Joseph Post

The use of flight track and convective weather densities for national airspace system efficiency analysis

This paper presents an analytical framework for conducting NAS (national airspace system)-wide performance assessments. The proposed approach segments the national airspace into a two-dimensional grid; superimposes flight tracks, flight plans, convective activity, and convective forecasts onto this grid; and then uses statistical techniques to compare these densities. In this manner one can quantify such things as the difference between planned and actual routes, the accuracy of convective forecasts, the impact of severe weather on traffic, etc. The use of two-dimensional statistical techniques borrowed from the fields of image processing and geostatistics can remove much of the arbitrariness involved in previous approaches, which attempt to match similar days.

A Validation of Three Fast-Time Air Traffic Control Models

This paper presents the results of a validation of three fast-time air traffic control models currently being used to support decisionmaking at the Federal Aviation Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The models exercised in this validation were LMINET, the Airspace Concepts Evaluation System (ACES), and the National Airspace System Performance Analysis Capability (NASPAC). The three models were used to simulate the same historical day (with good weather and fairly heavy traffic). Actual flight data was used to generate the flight schedule inputs for LMINET and ACES, while the Official Airline Guide and statistical data were used for NASPAC. Due to limitations inherent in the models and the way they are run, somewhat different airport networks and fleets were simulated by each model, yielding different flight counts. The validation first compares the number of flights simulated by each model with the historical record. A number of delay metrics are then computed for each model and compared with delay data from the Aviation System Performance Metrics database.

The Cost and Effectiveness of Alternative Space Radar Constellations

The United States Air Force, National Reconnaissance Office, and National GeospatialIntelligence Agency are jointly developing a new radar reconnaissance satellite known as Space Radar. A constellation of these satellites will perform reconnaissance, surveillance, and geospatial intelligence gathering missions for military and Intelligence Community users, with the first launch around 2015. CBO conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of four alternative Space Radar constellations. The Space Radar Integrated Program Office (IPO) has selected neither a prime contractor nor an architecture for the system, so CBO developed notional alternative architectures using open sources. CBO estimated the research and development, acquisition, and operations costs for its alternatives using a combination of standard Cost Estimating Relationships, industry studies, analogies, and IPO data. CBO analyzed the capabilities of the alternative architectures at performing the Synthetic Aperture Radar imaging and Ground Moving Target Indication missions.

Real Options in Capital Investment Decision -Making: Data Link Case Study

The traditional approach to valuation at th e FAA, other government agencies, and businesses understates the true value of proposed projects. By ignoring the inherent flexibility in these projects, a discounted cash flow analysis may lead to erroneous investment decisions. The real options approach to project valuation, derived from well established financial options pricing theory, can be used to supplement a traditional discounted cash flow analysis. The real options approach, which is beginning to see widespread use in private sector project valua tion, can help managers to design their projects so as to maximize managerial flexibility. Real options can also provide a more realistic estimate of a project’s value and thus lead to improved investment decision -making. This paper describes the real opti ons methodology using a data link case study based on the FAA’s recently postponed Controller Pilot Data Link Communications (CPDLC) project. We will show that there might have been significantly more value in the project than was realized by a naive Net P resent Value (NPV) analysis, had the program been structured to increase managerial flexibility. While our example demonstrates an increase in project present value, it is still insufficient to justify the investment. But we present only one such possible program structure, which is certainly not the optimum. By using real options analysis as a planning tool one could possibly have designed a program that was economically defensible, maximizing flexibility and thereby reducing risk.

Projecting Constrained Flight Schedules Based On the Rules From An Empirical Study

The National Airspace System (NAS) faces growing air travel demand which has already approached or exceeded operational capacities at several major airports. To reflect these capacity constraints, this paper presents a study to develop flight constraining rules based on historical traffic data at four previously slot-controlled airports: ORD, LGA, JFK, and EWR. Our analysis focuses exclusively on metrics based on service quality (measured by delays) and congestion (measured by capacity utilization ratios). After examining the selected metrics at the four airports, we derive the trigger conditions and implementation rules for capacity constraints. A similar set of flight constraining rules are also derived, based on the daily traffic constraint distributions, that can be applied to computer models to project feasible flight schedules in the future.

NATSIM: A Systems Dynamics Model of North Atlantic Air Traffic (ALTERNATE PAPER)

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) developed the North Atlantic Simulation (NATSIM) model to provide a means for stakeholders to evaluate changes to policies, procedures, and technologies in the North Atlantic. The macroscopic model forecasts future demand and provides long-term operational and financial estimates resulting from policy and system change. The scope of the NATSIM includes commercial passenger flight activity for flights between specific countries in North America (Canada, United States) and Europe (European Union 15 as defined by the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development). The NATSIM provides estimates for flight counts, flight characteristics (flight distance, block time, fuel burn), and economic and financial changes (airline costs, air service provider revenues).