Joseph R Fitchett

Estimates of global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoeal diseases: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Summary Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoeal diseases. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 25 years and informs the changing picture of diarrhoeal disease worldwide. Methods We estimated diarrhoeal mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm), a modelling platform shared across most causes of death in the GBD 2015 study. We modelled diarrhoeal morbidity, including incidence and prevalence, using a meta-regression platform called DisMod-MR. We estimated aetiologies for diarrhoeal diseases using a counterfactual approach that incorporates the aetiology-specific risk of diarrhoeal disease and the prevalence of the aetiology in diarrhoea episodes. We used the Socio-demographic Index, a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility, to assess trends in diarrhoeal mortality. The two leading risk factors for diarrhoea—childhood malnutrition and unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene—were used in a decomposition analysis to establish the relative contribution of changes in diarrhoea disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Findings Globally, in 2015, we estimate that diarrhoea was a leading cause of death among all ages (1·31 million deaths, 95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 1·23 million to 1·39 million), as well as a leading cause of DALYs because of its disproportionate impact on young children (71·59 million DALYs, 66·44 million to 77·21 million). Diarrhoea was a common cause of death among children under 5 years old (499 000 deaths, 95% UI 447 000–558 000). The number of deaths due to diarrhoea decreased by an estimated 20·8% (95% UI 15·4–26·1) from 2005 to 2015. Rotavirus was the leading cause of diarrhoea deaths (199 000, 95% UI 165 000–241 000), followed by Shigella spp (164 300, 85 000–278 700) and Salmonella spp (90 300, 95% UI 34 100–183 100). Among children under 5 years old, the three aetiologies responsible for the most deaths were rotavirus, Cryptosporidium spp, and Shigella spp. Improvements in safe water and sanitation have decreased diarrhoeal DALYs by 13·4%, and reductions in childhood undernutrition have decreased diarrhoeal DALYs by 10·0% between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation At the global level, deaths due to diarrhoeal diseases have decreased substantially in the past 25 years, although progress has been faster in some countries than others. Diarrhoea remains a largely preventable disease and cause of death, and continued efforts to improve access to safe water, sanitation, and childhood nutrition will be important in reducing the global burden of diarrhoea. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

UK investments in global infectious disease research 1997–2010: a case study

BACKGROUND Infectious diseases account for 15 million deaths per year worldwide, and disproportionately affect young people, elderly people, and the poorest sections of society. We aimed to describe the investments awarded to UK institutions for infectious disease research. METHODS We systematically searched databases and websites for information on research studies from funding institutions and created a comprehensive database of infectious disease research projects for the period 1997-2010. We categorised studies and funding by disease, cross-cutting theme, and by a research and development value chain describing the type of science. Regression analyses were reported with Spearmans rank correlation coefficient to establish the relation between research investment, mortality, and disease burden as measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). FINDINGS We identified 6170 funded studies, with a total research investment of UK£2·6 billion. Studies with a clear global health component represented 35·6% of all funding (£927 million). By disease, HIV received £461 million (17·7%), malaria £346 million (13·3%), tuberculosis £149 million (5·7%), influenza £80 million (3·1%), and hepatitis C £60 million (2·3%). We compared funding with disease burden (DALYs and mortality) to show low levels of investment relative to burden for gastrointestinal infections (£254 million, 9·7%), some neglected tropical diseases (£184 million, 7·1%), and antimicrobial resistance (£96 million, 3·7%). Virology was the highest funded category (£1 billion, 38·4%). Leading funding sources were the Wellcome Trust (£688 million, 26·4%) and the Medical Research Council (£673 million, 25·8%). INTERPRETATION Research funding has to be aligned with prevailing and projected global infectious disease burden. Funding agencies and industry need to openly document their research investments to redress any inequities in resource allocation. FUNDING None.

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory tract infections in 195 countries: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Summary Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2015 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs) in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 25 years and shows how the burden of LRI has changed in people of all ages. Methods We estimated LRI mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using a modelling platform shared across most causes of death in the GBD 2015 study called the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We modelled LRI morbidity, including incidence and prevalence, using a meta-regression platform called DisMod-MR. We estimated aetiologies for LRI using two different counterfactual approaches, the first for viral pathogens, which incorporates the aetiology-specific risk of LRI and the prevalence of the aetiology in LRI episodes, and the second for bacterial pathogens, which uses a vaccine-probe approach. We used the Socio-demographic Index, which is a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility, to assess trends in LRI-related mortality. The two leading risk factors for LRI disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), childhood undernutrition and air pollution, were used in a decomposition analysis to establish the relative contribution of changes in LRI DALYs. Findings In 2015, we estimated that LRIs caused 2·74 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·50 million to 2·86 million) and 103·0 million DALYs (95% UI 96·1 million to 109·1 million). LRIs have a disproportionate effect on children younger than 5 years, responsible for 704 000 deaths (95% UI 651 000–763 000) and 60.6 million DALYs (95ÙI 56·0–65·6). Between 2005 and 2015, the number of deaths due to LRI decreased by 36·9% (95% UI 31·6 to 42·0) in children younger than 5 years, and by 3·2% (95% UI −0·4 to 6·9) in all ages. Pneumococcal pneumonia caused 55·4% of LRI deaths in all ages, totalling 1 517 388 deaths (95% UI 857 940–2 183 791). Between 2005 and 2015, improvements in air pollution exposure were responsible for a 4·3% reduction in LRI DALYs and improvements in childhood undernutrition were responsible for an 8·9% reduction. Interpretation LRIs are the leading infectious cause of death and the fifth-leading cause of death overall; they are the second-leading cause of DALYs. At the global level, the burden of LRIs has decreased dramatically in the last 10 years in children younger than 5 years, although the burden in people older than 70 years has increased in many regions. LRI remains a largely preventable disease and cause of death, and continued efforts to decrease indoor and ambient air pollution, improve childhood nutrition, and scale up the use of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children and adults will be essential in reducing the global burden of LRI. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Systematic analysis of funding awarded for antimicrobial resistance research to institutions in the UK, 1997–2010

Objectives To assess the level of research funding awarded to UK institutions specifically for antimicrobial resistance-related research and how closely the topics funded relate to the clinical and public health burden of resistance. Methods Databases and web sites were systematically searched for information on how infectious disease research studies were funded for the period 1997–2010. Studies specifically related to antimicrobial resistance, including bacteriology, virology, mycology and parasitology research, were identified and categorized in terms of funding by pathogen and disease and by a research and development value chain describing the type of science. Results The overall dataset included 6165 studies receiving a total investment of £2.6 billion, of which £102 million was directed towards antimicrobial resistance research (5.5% of total studies, 3.9% of total spend). Of 337 resistance-related projects, 175 studies focused on bacteriology (40.2% of total resistance-related spending), 42 focused on antiviral resistance (17.2% of funding) and 51 focused on parasitology (27.4% of funding). Mean annual funding ranged from £1.9 million in 1997 to £22.1 million in 2009. Conclusions Despite the fact that the emergence of antimicrobial resistance threatens our future ability to treat many infections, the proportion of the UK infection-research spend targeting this important area is small. There are encouraging signs of increased investment in this area, but it is important that this is sustained and targeted at areas of projected greatest burden. Two areas of particular concern requiring more investment are tuberculosis and multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria.

Differences in research funding for women scientists: a systematic comparison of UK investments in global infectious disease research during 1997–2010

Objectives There has not previously been a systematic comparison of awards for research funding in infectious diseases by sex. We investigated funding awards to UK institutions for all infectious disease research from 1997 to 2010, across disease categories and along the research and development continuum. Design Systematic comparison. Methods Data were obtained from several sources for awards from the period 1997 to 2010 and each study assigned to—disease categories; type of science (preclinical, phases I–III trials, product development, implementation research); categories of funding organisation. Fold differences and statistical analysis were used to compare total investment, study numbers, mean grant and median grant between men and women. Results 6052 studies were included in the final analysis, comprising 4357 grants (72%) awarded to men and 1695 grants (28%) awarded to women, totalling £2.274 billion. Of this, men received £1.786 billion (78.5%) and women £488 million (21.5%). The median value of award was greater for men (£179 389; IQR £59 146–£371 977) than women (£125 556; IQR £30 982–£261 834). Awards were greater for male principal investigators (PIs) across all infectious disease systems, excepting neurological infections and sexually transmitted infections. The proportion of total funding awarded to women ranged from 14.3% in 1998 to 26.8% in 2009 (mean 21.4%), and was lowest for preclinical research at 18.2% (£285.5 million of £1.573 billion) and highest for operational research at 30.9% (£151.4 million of £489.7 million). Conclusions There are consistent differences in funding received by men and women PIs: women have fewer funded studies and receive less funding in absolute and in relative terms; the median funding awarded to women is lower across most infectious disease areas, by funder, and type of science. These differences remain broadly unchanged over the 14-year study period.

Determining Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection among BCG-Immunised Ugandan Children by T-SPOT.TB and Tuberculin Skin Testing

Background Children with latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) represent a huge reservoir for future disease. We wished to determine Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) infection prevalence among BCG-immunised five-year-old children in Entebbe, Uganda, but there are limited data on the performance of immunoassays for diagnosis of tuberculosis infection in children in endemic settings. We therefore evaluated agreement between a commercial interferon gamma release assay (T-SPOT.TB) and the tuberculin skin test (TST; 2 units RT-23 tuberculin; positive defined as diameter ≥10 mm), along with the reproducibility of T-SPOT.TB on short-term follow-up, in this population. Methodology/Principal Findings We recruited 907 children of which 56 were household contacts of TB patients. They were tested with T-SPOT.TB at age five years and then re-examined with T-SPOT.TB (n = 405) and TST (n = 319) approximately three weeks later. The principal outcome measures were T-SPOT.TB and TST positivity. At five years, 88 (9.7%) children tested positive by T-SPOT.TB. More than half of those that were T-SPOT.TB positive at five years were negative at follow-up, whereas 96% of baseline negatives were consistently negative. We observed somewhat better agreement between initial and follow-up T-SPOT.TB results among household TB contacts (κ = 0.77) than among non-contacts (κ = 0.39). Agreement between T-SPOT.TB and TST was weak (κ = 0.28 and κ = 0.40 for T-SPOT.TB at 5 years and follow-up, respectively). Of 28 children who were positive on both T-SPOT.TB tests, 14 (50%) had a negative TST. Analysis of spot counts showed high levels of instability in responses between baseline and follow-up, indicating variability in circulating numbers of T cells specific for certain M.tb antigens. Conclusions/Significance We found that T-SPOT.TB positives are unstable over a three-week follow-up interval, and that TST compares poorly with T-SPOT.TB, making the categorisation of children as TB-infected or TB-uninfected difficult. Existing tools for the diagnosis of TB infection are unsatisfactory in determining infection among children in this setting.

Investments in respiratory infectious disease research 1997-2010: a systematic analysis of UK funding.

Objectives Respiratory infections are responsible for a large global burden of disease. We assessed the public and philanthropic investments awarded to UK institutions for respiratory infectious disease research to identify areas of underinvestment. We aimed to identify projects and categorise them by pathogen, disease and position along the research and development value chain. Setting The UK. Participants Institutions that host and carry out infectious disease research. Primary and secondary outcome measures The total amount spent and number of studies with a focus on several different respiratory pathogens or diseases, and to correlate these against the global burden of disease; also the total amount spent and number of studies relating to the type of science, the predominant funder in each category and the mean and median award size. Results We identified 6165 infectious disease studies with a total investment of £2·6 billion. Respiratory research received £419 million (16.1%) across 1192 (19.3%) studies. The Wellcome Trust provided greatest investment (£135.2 million; 32.3%). Tuberculosis received £155 million (37.1%), influenza £80 million (19.1%) and pneumonia £27.8 million (6.6%). Despite high burden, there was relatively little investment in vaccine-preventable diseases including diphtheria (£0.1 million, 0.03%), measles (£5.0 million, 1.2%) and drug-resistant tuberculosis. There were 802 preclinical studies (67.3%) receiving £273 million (65.2%), while implementation research received £81 million (19.3%) across 274 studies (23%). There were comparatively few phase I–IV trials or product development studies. Global health research received £68.3 million (16.3%). Relative investment was strongly correlated with 2010 disease burden. Conclusions The UK predominantly funds preclinical science. Tuberculosis is the most studied respiratory disease. The high global burden of pneumonia-related disease warrants greater investment than it has historically received. Other priority areas include antimicrobial resistance (particularly within tuberculosis), economics and proactive investments for emerging infectious threats.

Research investments in global health: a systematic analysis of UK infectious disease research funding and global health metrics, 1997–2013

Abstract Background Infectious diseases account for a significant global burden of disease and substantial investment in research and development. This paper presents a systematic assessment of research investments awarded to UK institutions and global health metrics assessing disease burden. Methods We systematically sourced research funding data awarded from public and philanthropic organisations between 1997 and 2013. We screened awards for relevance to infection and categorised data by type of science, disease area and specific pathogen. Investments were compared with mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLD) across three time points. Findings Between 1997–2013, there were 7398 awards with a total investment of £3.7 billion. An increase in research funding across 2011–2013 was observed for most disease areas, with notable exceptions being sexually transmitted infections and sepsis research where funding decreased. Most funding remains for pre-clinical research (£2.2 billion, 59.4%). Relative to global mortality, DALYs and YLDs, acute hepatitis C, leishmaniasis and African trypanosomiasis received comparatively high levels of funding. Pneumonia, shigellosis, pertussis, cholera and syphilis were poorly funded across all health metrics. Tuberculosis (TB) consistently attracts relatively less funding than HIV and malaria. Interpretation Most infections have received increases in research investment, alongside decreases in global burden of disease in 2013. The UK demonstrates research strengths in some neglected tropical diseases such as African trypanosomiasis and leishmaniasis, but syphilis, cholera, shigellosis and pneumonia remain poorly funded relative to their global burden. Acute hepatitis C appears well funded but the figures do not adequately take into account projected future chronic burdens for this condition. These findings can help to inform global policymakers on resource allocation for research investment.

Rape as a strategy of war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is tremendously wealthy. Abundant in gold, diamonds, tantalum, tin, copper, zinc and cobalt, the natural resources in Africas third largest country are not equally benefiting the people. The DRC should sustainably be making use of their natural resources to develop the country, whose health, education and transport systems all suffer to this day from the effects of conflict. Instead, the DRC is divided with rebels, corrupt governments and foreign investors all fighting in one way or another for control over the countrys wealth. The following article focuses on the emergence of rape as a strategy of war in the DRC.

Tuberculosis transmission across the United States-Mexico border

In this era of increasing drug resistance among infectious diseases such as tuberculosis (TB), the complex population dynamics of border areas must be monitored more extensively. TB remains a major public health threat; its antimicrobial treatment is long; and the only vaccine licensed in the world, live-attenuated Mycobacterium bovis Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), exhibits varying efficacy. In addition to epidemiological surveillance, the underlying determinants contributing to the health and wellbeing of populations are of key importance. Although it received heightened attention in the past, tuberculosis transmission in the United States-Mexico border area demands renewed interest. Lessons learned should be applied to similar areas around the globe.