Joseph Voros

A generic foresight process framework

A generic foresight process framework is outlined, based on prior independent work by Mintzberg, Horton and Slaughter. The framework was developed as part of work carried out by the author during the introduction of foresight into the formal strategic planning of a public‐sector university in Australia. The framework recognises several distinct phases, leading from the initial gathering of information, through to the production of outputs intended as input into the more familiar activities of strategy development and strategic planning. The framework is also useful as a diagnostic tool for examining how foresight work and strategy are undertaken, as well as a design aid for customised foresight projects and processes. Some observations and reflections are made on lessons learned from a two‐and‐a‐half year engagement as an organisationally‐based foresight practitioner.

Reframing environmental scanning: an integral approach

The basis for a broadened scanning framework is described, which may also function as a means for understanding how human minds filter their perceptions of the world. The framework is based on the Four‐Quadrant Integral model of Ken Wilber and the Spiral Dynamics model of Don Beck and Chris Cowan. An analytical tool (cross‐level analysis) is presented for examining views of the world in terms of both the perceptual filters of the viewer and the aspect of the world being viewed, a technique which is also useful for analysing how other scanners do their scanning. A notation for cross‐level analysis is presented and described, with examples of its use.

Integral futures: an approach to futures inquiry

Abstract This paper sketches the broad outlines of the philosophical and methodological foundations of an emerging approach to inquiry—‘integral inquiry’—and how this form of inquiry may be applied to futures studies, leading to an approach which has come to be called ‘Integral Futures’.

Paradigms at play and implications for validity in social marketing research

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to shed light on concepts of validity and validation of social marketing research (SMR) with a view to enhancing SMR design and to inform SMR practice.Design/methodology/approach – The paper defines and presents concepts of validity in a manner that sheds light on the unique issues facing SMR and sets the stage for future research.Findings – The paper introduces an integrated model representing the variety of relationships that exist amongst a range of validity concepts that will assist methodological practice and increased rigor in future studies. The authors also introduce a matrix on research paradigms that can support the integration of a range of philosophical considerations to SMR research design.Research limitations/implications – The “quality” of research is being determined by those at the leading edge of their own paradigm without reference to other points of view. The authors argue that these sub‐processes of determining the validity of research outcomes a...

Introducing a classification framework for prospective methods

Purpose – The purpose of this article is to examine the nature and type of methods used in futures studies and foresight work which are explicitly concerned with creating “forward views” and/or “images of the future” (“prospective” methods).Design/methodology/approach – A new analytical technique, “mode‐level analysis”, is introduced and described, based on a classification of “modes” of futures thinking and levels of “depth” of interpretive frameworks. By choosing both a set of thinking modes and a series of interpretive levels as a basis, prospective methods may be analyzed in terms of which mode(s) and what level(s) they operate with or at.Findings – Two modes of thinking and five levels of depth are chosen for this analysis. The resulting schema is used to classify such methods as: wildcards, forecasting, “trend breaks”, visioning, backcasting, and alternative histories and counterfactuals. An analysis is also carried out on the method of “scenarios”, revealing a variety of different approaches operat...

A generalised “layered methodology” framework

Purpose – To outline and present a generalised scheme for using “layered methods” in foresight work.Design/methodology/approach – A number of different approaches to “layering” in futures studies and foresight work are examined and synthesised into a generalised scheme. The place of layered methods in foresight work is also examined, and the role of perceptual filters in interpretation is discussed.Findings – A schema of four major “strata”, each potentially containing multiple sub‐layers, is developed. The strata range from, for example, short‐term trends in the shallowest level, through to long‐term macrohistorical forces at the deepest level.Practical implications – The generalised scheme enables the practitioner to progressively move to greater levels of understanding as new layers of meaning are uncovered or constructed, as appropriate to the specific nature of the particular foresight engagement. The scheme also represents a template from which purpose‐built interpretive frameworks can be constructe...

Morphological prospection: profiling the shapes of things to come

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is two‐fold. First, to describe in detail a particular sub‐class of powerful prospective methods based on the method of “morphological analysis”. And second, to extend their use to create a basis for strengthening strategic analysis and policy development.Design/methodology/approach – The paper examines the history and use of morphological methods in foresight work, and briefly describes three main “lineages” currently in use, and proposes some extensions to models of practice.Findings – Recent research in cognitive psychology suggests that requiring a detailed and systematic examination of future possibilities before a decision is made leads to more effective assessments of futures. Morphological methods, by design and construction, are perfectly suited to this, and so can form an exceptionally strong basis for thinking systematically about the future.Practical implications – The paper also describes how to go about designing a foresighting capacity based on a systemat...

How to solve a wicked problem? Furniture foresight case study

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to report on how foresight methods are being used to address a “wicked problem” for the global furniture industry: “What are we going to do in the furniture industry in high cost countries (HCC) to maintain our future competitiveness with respect to the competition coming from low cost countries?”Design/methodology/approach – This study explores one sectorial initiative, CEFFOR® (Furniture Foresight Centre, headquarters in Valencia, Spain), that attempts to mitigate the negative impact of globalisation on the competitiveness of the furniture industry in HCCs, by creating a vision of a preferable future through the use of a set of qualitative foresight tools (structural analysis, morphological analysis/field anomaly relaxation, and cross impact analysis) involving a worldwide expert panel.Findings – This paper examines the set‐up phase of the CEFFOR initiative, and describes the main elements of the morphological space developed to profile possible future configuratio...

Big history as a scaffold for futures education

This paper does several things. First, it reports on some of the history of the Master of Strategic Foresight (MSF) at Swinburne (2001–2018) to provide some background information that, it is hoped, may be useful for others seeking to create or develop under- and postgraduate foresight courses in the future. Second, it also describes some observations made during the early years of the MSF regarding some of the characteristics of the students undertaking it—as compared with other nonforesight students also undertaking comparable-level postgraduate studies—which had a bearing on how we designed and revised the MSF over several iterations, and which, it is similarly hoped, may also be useful for foresight course designers of the future. Third, it notes that the introduction of “Big History” in 2015 at both undergraduate and postgraduate levels seems to have engendered a somewhat easier “uptake” of futures/foresight thinking by those students who were introduced to it, in contrast to cohorts of comparable students in previous years who were not. It is speculated that the Big History perspective was an important factor in this, and some related writings by other academics supporting this conjecture are sketched. It is then argued that, in particular, Big History seems to be especially well-suited to the framing of global-scale/civilizational futures. Finally, a number of remarks are made about how and why I believe Big History provides an ideal basis for engendering futures/foresight thinking, especially with regard to global/civilizational futures, as noted, as well as for framing The Anthropocene.

On a morphology of contact scenario space

The purpose of this paper is to explore the possibility space of scenarios of ‘contact’—the discovery of extra-terrestrial life, whether intelligent or not—using a morphological approach utilising seven principal parameters, chosen both for their descriptiveness of the scope of possibilities, as well as for their relevance in examining potential societal impacts arising from different scenarios, including, for example, the proximity of the discovery. Several classes of contact scenario are examined, and existing approaches to the search for extra-terrestrial life and intelligence are situated within the range of possible search strategies and targets illuminated by this particular choice of parameters, as are some examples of contact scenarios from popular culture. The resulting possibility space can also suggest new search strategies and potential targets, one of which is highlighted—that of ‘galaxy-scale macro-engineering’. It is hypothesised that an example of this might already be known to us, namely the intriguing galaxy ‘Hoags Object’ (PGC54559), and some specific empirical observations are suggested in order to test this hypothesis. Some possible extensions to the parameters used, as well as some preliminary observations about modelling the range and extent of human societal responses to contact, are also made.