Joshua A. Greenberg

The Alaska Salmon Enhancement Program: A Cost/Benefit Analysis

In May 1991, the Alaska Senates Special Committee on Domestic and International Commercial Fisheries initiated the first review of the states salmon enhancement program since its inception 20 years ago. As part of this review, a cost/benefit analysis of the States enhancement program for salmon was performed with cooperation from the Fisheries Research Enhancement Division of the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. The main results are that the additional producers surplus generated by the pink and sockeye hatchery programs are estimated to be less than the costs of running these programs. Eliminating the entire pink or sockeye salmon programs is estimated to increase net benefits by about 8% and 6%, respectively. A 15% increase in either program is estimated to result in a reduction in net benefits and a 15% decrease in either program is estimated to result in a slight increase in net benefits. Estimates of the confidence intervals for net benefits suggest that the gains from the elimination of either the pink program or the sockeye program are statistically different from zero. However, changes of plus or minus 15% of current hatchery production are found not to statistically affect net benefits.

Extending Federal Crop Insurance Programs to Commercial Fisheries: The Case of Bristol Bay, Alaska, Sockeye Salmon

Abstract This paper analyzes the feasibility of extending the U.S. Department of Agricultures crop insurance program to the Bristol Bay, Alaska, capture fishery for sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka. The impetus for this program has been a string of poor sockeye salmon fishing seasons followed by a series of disaster declarations in western Alaska. The mission of the Risk Management Agency, for whom this analysis was prepared, is to help stabilize the agricultural sector, not to provide disaster payments that offset permanent industry shifts by assuring producers some historical (but no longer attainable) production or revenue levels. Without a contemporaneous effort to restructure and rationalize the program of limited entry, the proposed crop insurance program for Bristol Bay cannot provide meaningful relief to a maladaptive industry that is beleaguered by excessive costs and increased competition.

An International Supply and Demand Model for Alaska Snow Crab

The Alaska snow crab fishery has increased in commercial importance as the king and Tanner crab stocks have declined. The commercial success of snow crab has led to a rejuvenation of the Alaska Crab fleet. This success has led to important economic questions about snow crab markets. This paper is the first to econometrieally model the world snow crab markets and addresses the specific question of whether a 400 million pound harvest in 1992 would have enhanced gross receipts to the Alaska snow crab fleet. The results do not support industrys concern that a 1992 400 million pound harvest would have depressed gross fishery returns.

A Revenue Analysis of the Alaska Pink Salmon Fishery

Abstract The Alaska salmon industry is suffering from declining prices due to an increasing supply of salmon worldwide, This has led to a much-needed economic evaluation of the Alaska salmon enhancement program and especially of the hatchery system for pink salmon Oncorhynchus gorbuscha. An econometric model of world salmon markets was used to evaluate possible future pink salmon enhancement production scenarios, as requested by the Alaska State Legislature and the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Results of this model, based on point estimates, indicate that if pink salmon production for enhancement were decreased, revenues to pink salmon fishers in Alaska would rise, although there would be regional differences. However, a complete elimination of the Alaska salmon enhancement program would decrease revenues.

Allocative Consequences of Pot Limits in the Bristol Bay Red King Crab Fishery: An Economic Analysis

Abstract Alaskas Bristol Bay fishery for red king crab Paralithodes camtschaticus is an example of a high-value, high-effort fishery characterized by short seasons and difficult in-season management. Pot limits are viewed as one potential way of reducing management problems. Two pot limit schemes were considered here: fixed pot limits, where each vessel is limited to the same number of pots, and proportional reduction requirements, where each vessel must reduce its number of pots (determined by past registration) by the same percentage. Production functions relating vessel performance to pot numbers were estimated. These models were subsequently employed in model simulations to evaluate potential effects various pot limit regulations may have on fleet performance, Results of this study suggest that the 1992 decision of the Alaska Board of Fisheries to implement a fixed limit of 250 pots per vessel in the Bristol Bay red king crab fishery (a decision that since has been revoked) may have conflicted with t...

Estimated Economic Impacts of Potential Policy Changes Affecting the Total Allowable Catch for Walleye Pollock

Abstract Walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma accounts for approximately 1 of every 20 kg of world landings of fish, shellfish, and crustaceans. There has, however, been little formal market analysis of walleye pollock. In this paper, an international econometric demand and supply model is constructed and estimated for walleye pollock caught in the waters off Alaska. The Japanese market for surimi was the most important modeled factor in determining exvessel prices for Alaska pollock. Model simulations were employed to investigate potential revenue effects of changes in the total allowable catch. In the short run, policy decisions that increase harvest from 1993 levels would also increase revenues to the pollock harvesting sector. In 1993, exvessel revenues would have continued to increase until harvest levels reached 1.7 million metric tons, at which point revenues would have started to decline. Likewise, decreases in harvest from 1993 levels would have lowered exvessel revenues.

Alaska’s Sablefish Fishery after Individual Fishing Quota (IFQ) Program Implementation: an International Economic Market Model

AbstractAlaska is the world’s principal supplier of Sablefish Anoplopoma fimbria, a buttery-flavored whitefish greatly prized in Japan. Sablefish are distributed from Baja California to western Japan, but the majority of commercial catches are from the Gulf of Alaska and the Aleutian Islands off Alaska. The volume and value of landings of this long-lived demersal fish are comparable to those of the well-known Pacific Halibut Hippoglossus stenolepis. As with Pacific Halibut, Alaska region catches of Sablefish are managed under an individual fishing quota (IFQ) program implemented in 1995. We present a simultaneous-equation market model for Sablefish and use it to examine the linkages between landings volume and exvessel prices and revenues, including the sensitivity of Alaska exvessel prices and revenues to changes in landings, the implementation of IFQs, and changes in the Japanese economy. The model simulations indicate that markets could absorb substantially more Sablefish than can be sustainably harves...

The Russian salmon fishery: Alaska's next big threat?

The recent breakup of the Soviet Union has brought hope and opportunity to many Americans. It has also brought the possibility of new competition to some US agricultural and resource-based industries. Recent concern in the western regions of the United States and Canada has centered on the increased possibility of salmon exports from the Russia Far East to traditional Western markets fueled, in a large part, from Russia- Japanese joint ventures. A dynamic econometric model of the world salmon markets was utilized to simulate future Russian salmon export scenarios. It was found that the Alaska pink salmon industry may suffer devastating consequences from increased Russian exports of pink salmon while the sockeye industry will suffer somewhat less from increased Russian exports of sockeye salmon.

The Persistence of Subsistence: Wild Food Harvests in Rural Alaska, 1983-2013

Many Alaskans depend on family-centered harvests of wild fish, wildlife, and plants in what could be considered a home production model. State and federal laws provide priorities for these “subsistence uses,” a divisive political issue in Alaska. We explore Alaska’s subsistence economies using community-level demographic, economic, and subsistence harvest estimates from more than 18,000 household surveys administered during 354 projects in 179 Alaska communities. Neither mean subsistence harvests nor mean incomes are significantly associated with time alone. But harvests are associated with time in multiple regression models that explain more than 60% of the variation in mean subsistence harvests per person at the community level. Propensity score matching finds that roads have significant, strong, and negative effects on subsistence harvests, but no significant effects on incomes. Results suggest that – given sustainably managed renewable resources and appropriate levels of exclusion – subsistence economies can co-exist with market economies.

Agriculture and economic reform in Russia

The economic and political climate of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics is changing rapidly. Because of these dramatic changes, it is difficult to provide an analysis of development in agriculture. Average annual agricultural production for the 1986-1990 period increased somewhat in volume when compared to the 1980-1985 average. However, the trend of increasing production did not continue in 1991, when agricultural output fell below the 1990 level. The primary causes of this downturn are crisis in the financial sector, disintegration of the material and equipment supply system to farm enterprises, price differences between industrial and agricultural commodities, the rigid purchasing system for agricultural outputs, weakening of central authorities, and state monopoly. Financial recovery and political stability are necessary for future growth of the agricultural sector.