Joshua J. Lewer

How Large Is International Trade’s Effect on Economic Growth?

The estimated static welfare gains from international trade are very small, on the order of one percent of GDP. The case for free trade is therefore increasingly linked to trades apparent positive effects on economic growth. But how large are these growth effectsq The vast empirical literature has emphasized the statistical significance, not the economic significance, of the trade-growth relationship. This surveys re-examination of the empirical literature focuses on the size of the relationship between trade and growth. Our survey reveals that the many empirical studies are surprisingly consistent in terms of the size of the relationship: A one percentage point increase in the growth of exports is associated with a one-fifth percentage point increase in economic growth. Given the power of compounding, the effect of trade on growth is very important for human welfare. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2003.

Does Immigration Stimulate International Trade? Measuring the Channels of Influence

This article examines the relationship between immigration and international trade. It applies panel data in a simultaneous equation regression model to test six channels through which immigration is hypothesized to influence international trade. The results indicate that immigration stimulates bi-lateral trade between 16 OECD countries and a large set of immigrant source countries for the years 1991–2000 primarily by 1. increasing foreign direct investment flows back to the source countries, 2. creating trade networks between immigrants in destination and native countries, and 3. raising income in immigrant destination countries.

Does trade composition influence economic growth? Time series evidence for 28 OECD and developing countries

This paper is an empirical test of the hypothesis suggested by Mazumdar (1996), namely, that the composition of trade determines the strength of the ‘engine of growth’. Mazumdar suggested that, within the framework of the Solow model, the composition of trade affects the medium-run transition to the steady state. The composition of trade matters because the price of capital is affected by whether a country exports or imports capital goods. Using unpublished SITC data, we create two international trade composition variables to test this hypothesis for 28 developed and developing countries. We test single-equation, simultaneous-equations, and panel data models with time-series data. All modern time-series procedures are rigorously applied. The results are supportive of the hypothesis; countries that import mostly capital goods and export consumer goods tend to grow faster than countries that export capital goods. There are important implications for developing countries. By focusing on their comparative advantage in producing labour-intensive consumer goods, developing countries will enhance their economic growth more than conventional models suggest. In addition, ceteris paribus, developing labour-abundant and consumer goods-exporting economies will grow faster than developed capital good exporters.

Backtracking from Globalization

This paper offers a global perspective of the political economy of the liberal trading system since the Great Depression and examines four major intellectual and socio-political challenges facing international trade and globalization going forward, including: (1) income redistribution, (2) the rise of Asia and a potential shift in comparative advantage, (3) the rise of China and the national security argument, and (4) the lack of compelling dynamic evidence supporting free trade. Given the growing domestic and global discontent with free trade, and the fact that these exacerbating issues remain, this paper suggests that U.S. and global trade policies may shift away from the liberal trading system.

Illegal Media File Sharing: The Impact of Cultural and Demographic Factors

The purpose of this article is to examine the ethics and economics behind the illegal file-sharing phenomena. A model of media evasion that adjusts for demographics, locus of control, and cultural aspects is developed to examine individual behavior. Using an expanded survey instrument at three universities (a private Midwest Christian liberal arts school, a public Division II university, and a public historically black college), data are collected on both student attitudes toward and actual propensity to illegally download music and other forms of multimedia. With a total sample of 302 individuals, logistic regression results indicate that age and internal locus of control tendencies are positively associated with moral attitudes, while age is the only demographic variable that is negatively associated with reduced illegal behavior. The cultural/religious results indicate that (1) self-reported religiosity has no effect on a persons attitude toward the morality of file sharing, and (2) frequency of attending religious services (“religious intensity”), particularly among those who indicate they are of the Christian faith, has a significantly positive effect on a persons attitude toward the morality of file sharing, but (3) neither of these two factors have a significant effect on actual illegal behavior.

Capital Account and Foreign Direct Investment Policies in the Late Nineties: What Effect on Trade?

The purpose of this paper is to empirically test the relationship between capital account policies and international trade in the late 1990s. A gravitational-based system is developed to identify and estimate this association for seventy-four countries and a subset of ASEAN countries. Using non-linear panel and cross-section techniques, a strong positive association is found, with foreign direct investment policies accounting for a significant portion of the total effect. The ASEAN sub-sample is found to be relatively more responsive to changes in capital account policies than the rest of the world, confirming the importance of financial liberalization in developing regions. However, this policy-trade association diminishes after the 1997-98 global contagion period for both ASEAN and world samples.

Predicting student demand for online courses in the college of business

ABSTRACT Demographic and behavioral characteristics of students in four undergraduate online business courses were analyzed in order to build profiles of online demand, as well as to determine the market segment(s) being served. The analysis revealed student traits that demonstrate multiple market segments being served by these courses. A predictive model was prepared that incorporates key independent student variables that can forecast student demand for courses and degree programs online.