Joshua Kurek

Legacy of a half century of Athabasca oil sands development recorded by lake ecosystems

The absence of well-executed environmental monitoring in the Athabasca oil sands (Alberta, Canada) has necessitated the use of indirect approaches to determine background conditions of freshwater ecosystems before development of one of the Earth’s largest energy deposits. Here, we use highly resolved lake sediment records to provide ecological context to ∼50 y of oil sands development and other environmental changes affecting lake ecosystems in the region. We show that polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) within lake sediments, particularly C1-C4–alkylated PAHs, increased significantly after development of the bitumen resource began, followed by significant increases in dibenzothiophenes. Total PAH fluxes in the modern sediments of our six study lakes, including one site ∼90 km northwest of the major development area, are now ∼2.5–23 times greater than ∼1960 levels. PAH ratios indicate temporal shifts from primarily wood combustion to petrogenic sources that coincide with greater oil sands development. Canadian interim sediment quality guidelines for PAHs have been exceeded since the mid-1980s at the most impacted site. A paleoecological assessment of Daphnia shows that this sentinel zooplankter has not yet been negatively impacted by decades of high atmospheric PAH deposition. Rather, coincident with increases in PAHs, climate-induced shifts in aquatic primary production related to warmer and drier conditions are the primary environmental drivers producing marked daphniid shifts after ∼1960 to 1970. Because of the striking increase in PAHs, elevated primary production, and zooplankton changes, these oil sands lake ecosystems have entered new ecological states completely distinct from those of previous centuries.

Distribution of Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) Head Capsules in Recent Sediments of Canadian Arctic Lakes

Thirty-two taxa of chironomid larvae were collected from the sediments of 50 lakes from across the Canadian Arctic Islands. Most chironomid taxa living in the Arctic have wide distributions, with only one taxon, Abiskomyia, showing a clear geographic limitation in this region. Many of these taxa have habitat preferences, among which lake morphometry, pH, nutrients and temperature are important. Due to the complex environmental patterns in the Arctic, lakes in both the northern and southern portion of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago have warmer temperatures and the chironomid assemblages of these two regions resemble each other more than those of the intervening central islands. Chironomid diversity is lowest in the central arctic islands, primarily Devon and Cornwallis Island, where the combination of low nutrients and cold temperatures provide the most severe environment for chironomid survival.

Effects of within-lake gradients on the distribution of fossil chironomids from maar lakes in western Alaska: implications for environmental reconstructions

We examined fossil chironomids (Diptera: Chironomidae) in the surface sediments of four maar lakes in western Alaska to determine chironomid distribution patterns with respect to within-lake gradients of water depth, LOI (loss-on-ignition), and bottom-water temperature. Linear and non-linear regressions were undertaken to test whether the within-lake distributions of fossil chironomids were uniform. Additionally, water depths where abrupt changes or breakpoints in the assemblages occur were identified using piecewise regression. Direct gradient analysis was then used to examine variation in the assemblages explained by the environmental data. For the shallowest lake, chironomid abundances of individual taxa and inferred temperatures varied little within the lake. For the three deep lakes, seven of the sixteen commonest fossil taxa varied significantly with water depth, although some lake-specific patterns were evident. Water depth was generally identified as the principal environmental variable in explaining variation in the assemblages, although sediment organic matter content and bottom-water temperature were also important. Abrupt changes in assemblages occurred at different water depths in each lake, and at only one lake did the breakpoint occur within the range of water depths defining the thermocline. Chironomid-inferred temperature trends from the lakes also showed depth-related patterns: the warmest inferred temperatures were generally from both the shallowest and deepest water depths, whereas intermediate depths yielded temperature inferences about 0.5 to 1.0°C cooler than the average within-lake value. Nevertheless, we conclude that these patterns had only a slight impact on temperature reconstructions relative to the prediction error of the model. A greater understanding of taphonomic processes is needed to determine their influence on environmental reconstructions based on chironomids.

Recent Warming, Rather than Industrial Emissions of Bioavailable Nutrients, Is the Dominant Driver of Lake Primary Production Shifts across the Athabasca Oil Sands Region

Freshwaters in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) are vulnerable to the atmospheric emissions and land disturbances caused by the local oil sands industry; however, they are also affected by climate change. Recent observations of increases in aquatic primary production near the main development area have prompted questions about the principal drivers of these limnological changes. Is the enhanced primary production due to deposition of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) from local industry or from recent climatic changes? Here, we use downcore, spectrally-inferred chlorophyll-a (VRS-chla) profiles (including diagenetic products) from 23 limnologically-diverse lakes with undisturbed catchments to characterize the pattern of primary production increases in the AOSR. Our aim is to better understand the relative roles of the local oil sands industry versus climate change in driving aquatic primary production trends. Nutrient deposition maps, generated using geostatistical interpolations of spring-time snowpack measurements from a grid pattern across the AOSR, demonstrate patterns of elevated total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and bioavailable nitrogen deposition around the main area of industrial activity. However, this pattern is not observed for bioavailable phosphorus. Our paleolimnological findings demonstrate consistently greater VRS-chla concentrations compared to pre-oil sands development levels, regardless of morphological and limnological characteristics, landscape position, bioavailable nutrient deposition, and dibenzothiophene (DBT)-inferred industrial impacts. Furthermore, breakpoint analyses on VRS-chla concentrations across a gradient of DBT-inferred industrial impact show limited evidence of a contemporaneous change among lakes. Despite the contribution of bioavailable nitrogen to the landscape from industrial activities, we find no consistency in the spatial pattern and timing of VRS-chla shifts with an industrial fertilizing signal. Instead, significant positive correlations were observed between VRS-chla and annual and seasonal temperatures. Our findings suggest warmer air temperatures and likely decreased ice covers are important drivers of enhanced aquatic primary production across the AOSR.

Testing intra-site transfer functions: an example using chironomids and water depth

Most calibration data sets used to infer past environmental conditions from biological proxies are derived from many sites. An alternative strategy is to derive the calibration data set from within a single site. Transfer functions derived from such intra-site calibration data sets are usually applied to fossil assemblages from the focal lake, but a recent development has been to apply these transfer functions to other sites. Transfer functions derived from intra-site calibration data sets can have impressive cross-validation performance, but that gives little indication of their performance when applied to other sites. Here, we develop transfer functions for lake depth from intra-lake chironomid calibration data sets in Norway and Alaska and test the resulting models by cross-validation and against known depth in external lakes. Lake depth is a statistically significant predictor of chironomid assemblages at all these lakes, and most intra-lake transfer functions perform reasonably well under cross-validation, but their performance against external data is erratic. Downcore reconstructions from transfer functions developed on different lakes are dissimilar. Ignoring the poorly performing transfer functions, only 3 of 14 downcore reconstructions are statistically significant. Few assemblages downcore had good modern analogues in the calibration data set, even when the core was from the same lake as the calibration data set. We conclude that intra-site calibration data sets can find site-specific rather than general relationships between species and the environment and thus should be applied with care and to external sites only after careful and critical validation.

Reply to Hrudey: Tracking the extent of oil sands airborne pollution

We welcome Hrudey’s comments (1) regarding “the most noteworthy findings” of Kurek et al. (2) and have thus focused our response to discuss “several features” of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) data (and related dibenzothiophenes, DBTs) from Namur Lake.

Long-term stability of cladoceran assemblages in small, shallow, Canadian Shield lakes experiencing marked calcium declines

A greater appreciation of biotic responses to environmental changes is warranted in small, shallow lakes because of the high number of these habitats, and their unique contributions to regional biodiversity. Furthermore, recent water chemistry monitoring data show that shallow lakes in Ontario are sensitive and have responded significantly to environmental stressors such as acid deposition and lake water calcium decline. Here, we use paleoecological techniques to examine cladoceran assemblages in modern and pre-industrial sediments of 30 shallow lakes to determine the key environmental gradients that influence present-day assemblages, and to assess how assemblage structure has changed since pre-industrial times (pre-1850s). Redundancy analysis of present-day cladoceran assemblages and key environmental variables identified lake surface area and Secchi depth as significant predictors of assemblage composition. In our data set, Secchi depth was not correlated to water clarity but rather to macrophyte cover, suggesting that cladoceran assemblages were highly influenced by habitat structure. In contrast to nearby, deeper lakes, where pelagic cladoceran taxa have changed significantly in relative abundance over time, cladoceran assemblages in present-day and pre-industrial sediments of shallow lakes did not differ significantly in composition. While the specific reasons for this muted response are unknown, we hypothesize that: (1) littoral taxa may be less sensitive to low Ca concentrations, or ecological thresholds have not yet been crossed or are lower for littoral taxa; (2) calcium availability may vary spatially within shallow lakes, and this is not captured in a single measure of water chemistry from the centre of the lake; and/or (3) habitat structure is more important than water chemistry as a predictor of assemblage composition in these study lakes, and this has not changed significantly over time.

Assessment of multi-trophic changes in a shallow boreal lake simultaneously exposed to climate change and aerial deposition of contaminants from the Athabasca Oil Sands Region, Canada

The Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) has been intensely developed for industrial bitumen extraction and upgrading since the 1980s. A paucity of environmental monitoring prior to development raises questions about baseline conditions in freshwater systems in the region and ecological responses to industrial activities. Further, climatic changes prompt questions about the relative roles of climate and industry in shaping aquatic ecosystems through time. We use aquatic bioindicators from multiple trophic levels, concentrations of petrogenic contaminants (dibenzothiophenes), and spectrally-inferred chlorophyll-a preserved in well-dated sediments of a closed-basin, shallow lake ~50km away from the main area of industry, in conjunction with climate observations, to assess how the biotic assemblages of a typical AOSR lake have changed during the past ~75years. We examine the contributions of the areas stressors in structuring aquatic communities. Increases in sedimentary measures of petrogenic contaminants provide clear evidence of aerial contaminant deposition from local industry since its establishment, while climate records demonstrate consistent warming and a recent period of reduced precipitation. Quantitative comparisons of biological assemblages from before and after the establishment of regional industry find significant (p<0.05) differences; however, the magnitude and overall timing of the changes are not consistent with a threshold-type shift in response to the onset of regional industry. Rather, biotic assemblages from multiple trophic levels suggest transitions to an increasingly complex benthic environment and relatively warmer waters, which, like the increasing trends in inferred primary production, are consistent with a changing climate. These findings highlight the important role of climate conditions in regulating primary production and structuring aquatic communities in these shallow systems.

Long-term oxygen conditions assessed using chironomid assemblages in brook trout lakes from Nova Scotia, Canada

Abstract We examined the larval remains of chironomids in 12 stocked brook trout lakes from Nova Scotia using 2 paleolimnological approaches (i.e., top–bottom approach and stratigraphic analyses). Limited monitoring data have indicated that almost all of the survey lakes contained poor coldwater-fish habitat; therefore, concerns have been raised that oxygen conditions have deteriorated and suitable habitat for brook trout may have declined. Our goal was to evaluate shifts in water quality, with a focus on understanding trends in hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations. No strong directional changes in the relative abundances of chironomids were recognized using top–bottom (12 lakes) and downcore stratigraphic (4 lakes) analyses. Chironomid assemblage compositions have not differed significantly between modern and preindustrial time periods (ANOSIM: R = −0.06, P = 0.94). Changes (if any) in oxygen conditions over the last ∼2 centuries likely were subtle and not of sufficient duration and (or) magnitude to strongly influence chironomid assemblage compositions through time. Detrended correspondence analysis of downcore assemblages indicated that taxa turnover was minimal (≤1 SD) at 3 of 4 lakes. We conclude that oxygen conditions (which our proxy data indicate were likely naturally low) have not deteriorated significantly since preindustrial times, and no overall directional trends are yet obvious in the paleolimnological record. Combining the often complimentary information gained from paleolimnological, monitoring, and modeling analyses, as we do here, can aid in the management of aquatic ecosystems and highlight the relative importance of regional trends in water quality and its influence on aquatic organisms such as recreationally significant salmonids.

A new terrestrial palaeoenvironmental record from the Bering Land Bridge and context for human dispersal

Palaeoenvironmental records from the now-submerged Bering Land Bridge (BLB) covering the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present are needed to document changing environments and connections with the dispersal of humans into North America. Moreover, terrestrially based records of environmental changes are needed in close proximity to the re-establishment of circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Oceans following the end of the last glaciation to test palaeo-climate models for the high latitudes. We present the first terrestrial temperature and hydrologic reconstructions from the LGM to the present from the BLBs south-central margin. We find that the timing of the earliest unequivocal human dispersals into Alaska, based on archaeological evidence, corresponds with a shift to warmer/wetter conditions on the BLB between 14 700 and 13 500 years ago associated with the early Bølling/Allerød interstadial (BA). These environmental changes could have provided the impetus for eastward human dispersal at that time, from Western or central Beringia after a protracted human population standstill. Our data indicate substantial climate-induced environmental changes on the BLB since the LGM, which would potentially have had significant influences on megafaunal and human biogeography in the region.