Joshua Nealon

Dengue in a changing climate

Dengue is the worlds most important arboviral disease in terms of number of people affected. Over the past 50 years, incidence increased 30-fold: there were approximately 390 million infections in 2010. Globalization, trade, travel, demographic trends, and warming temperatures are associated with the recent spread of the primary vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and of dengue. Overall, models project that new geographic areas along the fringe of current geographic ranges for Aedes will become environmentally suitable for the mosquitos lifecycle, and for dengue transmission. Many endemic countries where dengue is likely to spread further have underdeveloped health systems, increasing the substantial challenges of disease prevention and control. Control focuses on management of Aedes, although these efforts have typically had limited effectiveness in preventing outbreaks. New prevention and control efforts are needed to counter the potential consequences of climate change on the geographic range and incidence of dengue, including novel methods of vector control and dengue vaccines.

Symptomatic Dengue in Children in 10 Asian and Latin American Countries

BACKGROUND The control groups in two phase 3 trials of dengue vaccine efficacy included two large regional cohorts that were followed up for dengue infection. These cohorts provided a sample for epidemiologic analyses of symptomatic dengue in children across 10 countries in Southeast Asia and Latin America in which dengue is endemic. METHODS We monitored acute febrile illness and virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) in 3424 healthy children, 2 to 16 years of age, in Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) from June 2011 through December 2013 and in 6939 children, 9 to 18 years of age, in Latin America (Brazil, Colombia, Honduras, Mexico, and Puerto Rico) from June 2011 through April 2014. Acute febrile episodes were determined to be VCD by means of a nonstructural protein 1 antigen immunoassay and reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction assays. Dengue hemorrhagic fever was defined according to 1997 World Health Organization criteria. RESULTS Approximately 10% of the febrile episodes in each cohort were confirmed to be VCD, with 319 VCD episodes (4.6 episodes per 100 person-years) occurring in the Asian cohort and 389 VCD episodes (2.9 episodes per 100 person-years) occurring in the Latin American cohort; no trend according to age group was observed. The incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever was less than 0.3 episodes per 100 person-years in each cohort. The percentage of VCD episodes requiring hospitalization was 19.1% in the Asian cohort and 11.1% in the Latin American cohort. In comparable age groups (9 to 12 years and 13 to 16 years), the burden of dengue was higher in Asia than in Latin America. CONCLUSIONS The burdens of dengue were substantial in the two regions and in all age groups. Burdens varied widely according to country, but the rates were generally higher and the disease more frequently severe in Asian countries than in Latin American countries. (Funded by Sanofi Pasteur; CYD14 and CYD15 ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT01373281 and NCT01374516.).

Dengue serotype-specific seroprevalence among 5- to 10-year-old children in India: a community-based cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND Dengue surveillance data in India are limited and probably substantially underestimate the burden of disease. A community-based study was undertaken to assess the prevalence of dengue-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies in children across India and to examine historical dengue exposure rates. Potential associations between socio-economic factors and dengue seroprevalence were also assessed (registered at ctri.nic.in: CTRI/2011/12/002243). METHODS A convenience sample of 2609 healthy children aged 5-10 years was enrolled; these children were registered at or were living in the vicinity of eight centres located at six geographically distinct sites across India. Blood samples were drawn to test for the presence of dengue IgG antibodies using ELISA. Serotype-specific neutralizing antibody titres were measured in dengue IgG-positive children using dengue plaque reduction neutralization tests. Socio-demographic and household information was collected using a questionnaire. RESULTS Overall, 2558/2609 children had viable samples with laboratory results for dengue IgG. Dengue IgG seroprevalence across all sites was 59.6% (95% confidence interval 57.7-61.5%): the lowest (23.2%) was in Kalyani, West Bengal, and the highest (80.1%) was in Mumbai. Seroprevalence increased with age. Multivariate analysis suggested associations with household water storage/supply and type of housing. Half of the subjects with positive IgG results presented a multitypic profile, indicating previous exposure to more than one serotype. CONCLUSIONS The overall dengue seroprevalence suggests that dengue endemicity in India is comparable to that in highly endemic countries of Southeast Asia. Additional prospective studies are required to fully quantify the disease burden, in order to support evidence-based policies for dengue prevention and control in India.

Dengue seroprevalence and force of primary infection in a representative population of urban dwelling Indonesian children

Background Indonesia reports the second highest dengue disease burden in the world; these data are from passive surveillance reports and are likely to be significant underestimates. Age-stratified seroprevalence data are relatively unbiased indicators of past exposure and allow understanding of transmission dynamics. Methodology/Principal Findings To better understand dengue infection history and associated risk factors in Indonesia, a representative population-based cross-sectional dengue seroprevalence study was conducted in 1–18-year-old urban children. From October to November 2014, 3,210 children were enrolled from 30 geographically dispersed clusters. Serum samples were tested for anti-dengue IgG antibodies by indirect ELISA. A questionnaire investigated associations between dengue serologic status and household socio-demographic and behavioural factors. Overall, 3,194 samples were tested, giving an adjusted national seroprevalence in this urban population of 69.4% [95% CI: 64.4–74.3] (33.8% [95% CI: 26.4–41.2] in the 1–4-year-olds, 65.4% [95% CI: 69.1–71.7] in the 5–9-year-olds, 83.1% [95% CI: 77.1–89.0] in the 10–14-year-olds, and 89.0% [95% CI: 83.9–94.1] in the 15–18-year–olds). The median age of seroconversion estimated through a linear model was 4.8 years. Using a catalytic model and considering a constant force of infection we estimated 13.1% of children experience a primary infection per year. Through a hierarchical logistic multivariate model, the subject’s age group (1–4 vs 5–9 OR = 4.25; 1–4 vs. 10–14 OR = 12.60; and 1–4 vs 15–18 OR = 21.87; p<0.0001) and the number of cases diagnosed in the household since the subject was born (p = 0.0004) remained associated with dengue serological status. Conclusions/Significance This is the first dengue seroprevalence study in Indonesia that is targeting a representative sample of the urban paediatric population. This study revealed that more than 80% of children aged 10 years or over have experienced dengue infection at least once. Prospective incidence studies would likely reveal dengue burdens far in excess of reported incidence rates.

Symptomatic Dengue Disease in Five Southeast Asian Countries: Epidemiological Evidence from a Dengue Vaccine Trial.

Dengue incidence has increased globally, but empirical burden estimates are scarce. Prospective methods are best-able to capture all severities of disease. CYD14 was an observer-blinded dengue vaccine study conducted in children 2–14 years of age in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam. The control group received no vaccine and resembled a prospective, observational study. We calculated the rates of dengue according to different laboratory or clinical criteria to make inferences about dengue burden, and compared with rates reported in the passive surveillance systems to calculate expansion factors which describe under-reporting. Over 6,933 person-years of observation in the control group there were 319 virologically confirmed dengue cases, a crude attack rate of 4.6%/year. Of these, 92 cases (28.8%) were clinically diagnosed as dengue fever or dengue hemorrhagic fever by investigators and 227 were not, indicating that most symptomatic disease fails to satisfy existing case definitions. When examining different case definitions, there was an inverse relationship between clinical severity and observed incidence rates. CYD14’s active surveillance system captured a greater proportion of symptomatic dengue than national passive surveillance systems, giving rise to expansion factors ranging from 0.5 to 31.7. This analysis showed substantial, unpredictable and variable under-reporting of symptomatic dengue, even within a controlled clinical trial environment, and emphasizes that burden estimates are highly sensitive to case definitions. These data will assist in generating disease burden estimates and have important policy implications when considering the introduction and health economics of dengue prevention and control interventions.

Changing sero-epidemiology of hepatitis A in Asia Pacific countries: A systematic review

OBJECTIVES Hepatitis A is a viral liver disease whose prevalence is associated with low socio-economic and hygiene levels due to its faecal-oral transmission. Severity increases with age, and immunity is life-long. Decreased endemicity could result in increased age and severity of cases. A literature review was conducted to describe changes in age-stratified hepatitis A seroprevalence in Asia Pacific countries from 1980 to 2016, and to identify gaps in the literature. The PRISMA guidelines were followed. METHODS The PubMed database was searched for studies on age-specific hepatitis A seroprevalence in 17 Asia Pacific countries. All studies published in the English language, reporting human hepatitis A seroprevalence levels in any age group, were included. RESULTS Seventy-three publications from 11 countries were identified. A trend of increasing age at first exposure over time was observed, particularly in developed countries such as Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, and Korea, suggesting a transition in terms of endemicity. CONCLUSIONS Extensive gaps in the literature were identified between countries and year of publication, indicating the need for further research. Decreasing hepatitis A exposure and thus immunity conferred during childhood, may render older populations susceptible to infection. The public health and economic value of vaccination against hepatitis A should be assessed within this changing epidemiological context.

Serological Evidence of Japanese Encephalitis Virus Circulation in Asian Children From Dengue-Endemic Countries

Abstract Background Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a zoonotic, mosquito-borne flavivirus, distributed across Asia. Infections are mostly mild or asymptomatic, but symptoms include neurological disorders, sequelae, and fatalities. Data to inform control strategies are limited due to incomplete case reporting. Methods We used JEV serological data from a multicountry Asian dengue vaccine study in children aged 2–14 years to describe JEV endemicity, measuring antibodies by plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT50). Results A total 1479 unvaccinated subjects were included. A minimal estimate of pediatric JEV seroprevalence in dengue-naive individuals was 8.1% in Indonesia, 5.8% in Malaysia, 10.8% in the Philippines, and 30.7% in Vietnam, translating to annual infection risks varying from 0.8% (in Malaysia) to 5.2% (in Vietnam). JEV seroprevalence and annual infection estimates were much higher in children with history of dengue infection, indicating cross-neutralization within the JEV PRNT50 assay. Conclusions These data confirm JEV transmission across predominantly urban areas and support a greater emphasis on JEV case finding, diagnosis, and prevention.

Dengue virus serotype distribution based on serological evidence in pediatric urban population in Indonesia

Background Dengue is a febrile illness transmitted by mosquitoes, causing disease across the tropical and sub-tropical world. Antibody prevalence data and serotype distributions describe population-level risk and inform public health decision-making. Methodology/Principal findings In this cross-sectional study we used data from a pediatric dengue seroprevalence study to describe historical dengue serotype circulation, according to age and geographic location. A sub-sample of 780 dengue IgG-positive sera, collected from 30 sites across urban Indonesia in 2014, were tested by the plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) to measure the prevalence and concentration of serotype-specific neutralizing antibodies according to subject age and geography. PRNT results were obtained from 776 subjects with mean age of 9.6 years. 765 (98.6%) neutralized one or more dengue serotype at a threshold of >10 (1/dil). Multitypic profiles were observed in 50.9% of the samples; a proportion which increased to 63.1% in subjects aged 15–18 years. Amongst monotypic samples, the highest proportion was reactive against DENV-2, followed by DENV-1, and DENV-3, with some variation across the country. DENV-4 was the least common serotype. The highest anti-dengue antibody titers were recorded against DENV-2, and increased with age to a geometric mean of 516.5 [1/dil] in the oldest age group. Conclusions/Significance We found that all four dengue serotypes have been widely circulating in most of urban Indonesia, and more than half of children had already been exposed to >1 dengue serotype, demonstrating intense transmission often associated with more severe clinical episodes. These data will help inform policymakers and highlight the importance of dengue surveillance, prevention and control.