Joško Parunov

Safety analysis of ship rolling in rough sea

Abstract Non-linear ship rolling and capsizing in irregular waves is analysed by a single degree-of-freedom system. The random wave excitation depends on sea state, ship speed and ship direction to wave propagation. The governing differential equation of motion is integrated by applying the harmonic acceleration method. Ship response is presented in time and frequency domains. A safe basin in the initial value plane is constructed for different values of the three excitation parameters mentioned above in order to determine the probability of ship survival, which is presented in a PC radar map as a function of heading angle.

Effects of Common Structural Rules on hull-girder reliability of an Aframax oil tanker

Abstract This paper aims at quantifying the changes in notional reliability levels that result from redesigning an existing Aframax tanker to comply with the Common Structural Rules (CSR) for double-hull oil tankers. The probability of structural failure is calculated using the first-order reliability method. The evaluation of the wave-induced load effects that occur during long-term operation of the ship in the seaway is carried out in accordance with the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS)-recommended procedure, while transfer functions are calculated using the sink–source 3D linear method. The still-water loads are defined on the basis of a statistical analysis of loading conditions from the loading manual. The ultimate collapse bending moment of the midship cross section, which is used as the basis for the reliability formulation, is evaluated by progressive collapse analysis and by a single-step procedure according to CSR. The reliability assessment is performed for “as-built” and “corroded” states of the existing ship and a reinforced ship complying with CSR. It is shown that the hull-girder failure probability of an Aframax tanker is reduced several times due to the reinforcements according to CSR. Sensitivity analysis and a parametric study are performed to investigate the variability of results with the change of parameters of pertinent random variables within their plausible ranges. Finally, differences between load combination approaches by Ferry-Borges and Castanheta method and Turkstras rule are investigated.

Long-term prediction of combined wave and whipping bending moments of container ships

The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical computational procedure for the long-term distribution of combined wave and whipping bending moments (BMs) of container ships. The problem is formulated in the frequency domain using standard engineering tools for load computation: a seakeeping code for the rigid-body response and a beam finite element model for transient vibratory response. The von Karman approach with correction for pile-up effect is employed for bow flare slamming load assessment. Correlation between wave and whipping BMs is considered. The procedure is demonstrated on the example of a 9200 TEU container ship. Long-term distributions of combined BMs are computed using the standard International Association of Classification Societies scatter diagram for the North Atlantic environment and two additional scatter diagrams for common shipping routes of container ships. The speed profile required for the long-term load prediction is calculated by the seakeeping analysis respecting operability limiting criteria. Conclusions about influence of various environmental and operability parameters are drawn.

Structural Reliability of a Suezmax Oil Tanker Designed According to New Joint Tanker Project Rules

The paper aims at quantifying the changes in notional reliability levels that result from redesigning an existing suezmax tanker to comply with new Joint Tanker Project (JTP) rule requirement for ultimate vertical bending moment capacity. The probability of structural failure is calculated using a first-order reliability method. The evaluation of the wave-induced load effects that occur during long-term operation of the ship in the seaway is carried out in accordance to IACS recommended procedure. Comparative analysis of long-term distributions of vertical wave bending moment calculated by two independent computer seakeeping codes is performed. The still water loads are defined on the basis of a statistical analysis of loading conditions from the loading manual. The ultimate collapse bending moment of the midship cross section, which is used as the basis for the reliability formulation, is evaluated by JTP single-step procedure and by program HULLCOLL for progressive collapse analysis of ship hull-girders. The reliability assessment is performed for “as-built” and “corroded” states of the existing ship and a reinforced design configuration complying with new JTP rules. It is shown that hull-girder failure probability of suezmax tanker reinforced according to new JTP rules is reduced several times. Sensitivity analysis and a parametric study are performed to investigate the variability of results to the change of parameters of pertinent random variables within their plausible ranges.Copyright

Ultimate hull-girder-strength-based reliability of a double-hull oil tanker after collision in the Adriatic Sea

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to present a methodology for the assessment of the structural reliability of an oil tanker damaged in a hypothetical collision accident in the Adriatic Sea. Monte Carlo simulation is employed to generate random damage scenarios. Assumption of the damage size is based on the numerical simulation of the ship–ship collision. Residual ultimate strength and still-water bending moment distribution are determined based on the size and location of the damage. Structural reliability analysis is employed to determine the safety index with respect to the ultimate hull-girder failure. Histograms of safety indices are thus obtained, representing new measures for the performance assessment of the damaged ship. If extended to more severe design wave environments and collision scenarios, the presented methodology may be used for general reliability-based comparison of different alternative designs of marine structures with respect to the accidental failure modes or for improvement of ship structural design rules.

Probabilistic Load Combination Factors of Wave and Whipping Bending Moments

Extreme values of wave and whipping bending moments are important in structural design of large containerships. Since the extreme values of these two, partially correlated processes do not occur at the same time instant and even at the same environmental conditions, it is necessary to combine them by using probabilistic load combination methods. The correlation analysis between wave and whipping bending moments is performed and a practical method for calculation of the most probable load combination factor between considered bending moments is presented. Short-term load combination factors are calculated by reconstruction of the signal from the frequency domain solution. Results are validated by comparison with model test data of the 9400-TEU containership for various sea states and speeds and heading angles. Practical regression equations for estimation of the most probable short-term load combination factor are formulated. Regression equations are then used in the computation of the long-term distribution of combined bending moment. The procedure is demonstrated on the example of the two large containerships.

Structural reliability assessment of container ship at the time of accident

Hull girder reliability assessment of the MSC Napoli at the time of accident is presented. Loads considered in the study are still water bending moments, vertical wave bending moments and whipping bending moments, while structural capacity is represented by the hull girder ultimate strength. Load combination between wave and whipping bending moments is considered. The probability of failure is calculated using a first-order reliability method. Sensitivity study is performed in order to investigate influence of the pertinent random variables. The uncertainty model of the basic random variables involved is consistent with the recent proposal by the International Maritime Organization, thus enabling direct comparison of the obtained results with reliability levels proposed by International Maritime Organization.

Structural Reliability of a Suezmax Oil Tanker Designed According to New Common Structural Rules

The paper aims at quantifying the changes in notional reliability levels that result from redesigning an existing suezmax tanker to comply with new Common Structural Rules (CSR) requirement for ultimate vertical bending moment capacity. The probability of structural failure is calculated using a first-order reliability method. The evaluation of the wave-induced load effects that occur during long-term operation of the ship in the seaway is carried out in accordance to International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) recommended procedure. Comparative analysis of long-term distributions of vertical wave bending moment calculated by two independent computer seakeeping codes is performed. The still-water loads are defined on the basis of a statistical analysis of loading conditions from the loading manual. The ultimate collapse bending moment of the midship cross section, which is used as the basis for the reliability formulation, is evaluated by CSR single-step procedure and by program HULLCOLL for progressive collapse analysis of ship hull-girders. The reliability assessment is performed for as-built and corroded states of the existing ship and a reinforced design configuration complying with CSR. It is shown that hull-girder failure probability of suezmax tanker reinforced according to new CSR is reduced several times. Sensitivity analysis and a parametric study are performed to investigate the variability of results to the change of parameters of pertinent random variables within their plausible ranges.

Finite element study of residual ultimate strength of a double hull oil tanker with simplified collision damage and subjected to bi-axial bending

ABSTRACT The aim of the study is assessment of the residual strength of the double hull oil tanker damaged in collision, which the accidental limit states foreseen by International Association of Classification Societies in their new Common Structural Rules. Collision damage is idealised as a ‘rectangular box’, assuming to start from the main deck downwards. Nonlinear finite element method with the explicit dynamic integration method implemented in LS-Dyna is employed. Such approach enables a systematic investigation of ship residual strength under combined horizontal and vertical bending moments that has not been performed previously. As a result of the study, residual strength interaction diagrams are developed with the purpose of rapid residual ultimate longitudinal strength assessment of the damaged oil tanker. Interaction diagrams may be useful for classification societies when developing rules regarding accidental limit states, as well as for a fast assessment of the hull girder residual strength in accidental situations.

Structural Reliability Assessment of an Oil Tanker Accidentally Grounded in the Adriatic Sea

The aim of the paper is to present a methodology for the assessment of the structural reliability of an oil tanker damaged in a hypothetical grounding accident in the Adriatic Sea. The grounding accident affects the ultimate hull girder capacity in the damaged region, the still water bending moment (SWBM) distribution along the vessel as well as the vertical wave bending moments (VWBM). The extent of the damage on the ship’s hull after a grounding accident depends on several parameters such as ship`s speed, rock size, penetration depth, longitudinal and transversal location of stranding along the hull. These parameters are in the present study assumed as random variables, described by probability density functions. Based on defined statistical properties, random realizations of grounding parameters are simulated by Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. For each such random grounding scenario, the damage size is calculated by the surrogate model based on numerical grounding simulations. Residual ultimate strength and SWBM distribution are determined based on the size and location of the damage. VWBM is calculated for average sea state in the area with increased risk of grounding accident in the Adriatic Sea. Structural reliability analysis is employed to determine the safety index with respect to the ultimate hull girder failure for salvage period of 12 hours. As each grounding scenario results in different hull- girder reliability, histogram of safety indices is obtained representing new measures for the performance assessment of the damaged ship.