Jouko Meriläinen

Estimation of pH optima and tolerances of diatoms in lake sediments by the methods of weighted averaging, least squares and maximum likelihood, and their use for the prediction of lake acidity

Ecological optima and tolerances with respect to autumn pH were estimated for 63 diatom taxa in 47 Finnish lakes. The methods used were weighted averaging (WA), least squares (LS) and maximum likelihood (ML), the two latter methods assuming the Gaussian response model.WA produces optimum estimates which are necessarily within the observed lake pH range, whereas there is no such restriction in ML and LS. When the most extreme estimates of ML and LS were excluded, a reasonably close agreement among the results of different estimation methods was observed. When the species with unrealistic optima were excluded, the tolerance estimates were also rather similar, although the ML estimates were systematically greater.The parameter estimates were used to predict the autumn pH of 34 other lakes by weighted averaging. The ML and LS estimates including the extreme optima produced inferior predictions. A good prediction was obtained, however, when prediction with these estimates was additionally scaled with inverse squared tolerances, or when the extreme values were removed (censored). Tolerance downweighting was perhaps more efficient, and when it was used, no additional improvement was gained by censoring. The WA estimates produced good predictions without any manipulations, but these predictions tended to be biased towards the centroid of the observed range of pH values.At best, the average bias in prediction, as measured by mean difference between predicted and observed pH, was 0.082 pH units and the standard deviation of the differences, measuring the average random prediction error, was 0.256 pH units.

Interpretation of lake quality from contemporary diatom assemblages

Diatom assemblages from the topmost sediment of 49 lakes were ordinated by means of a program for detrended correspondence analysis and reciprocal averaging (Decorana). Five lake groups were separated, each having more or less characteristic diatom assemblages and water quality. Shifts from one group to another caused by factors such as acidification, artificial drainage, diffuse nutrient loading and sewage are discussed.

Maximum likelihood prediction of lake acidity based on sedimented diatoms

. As an example of ecological gradient analysis, Gaussian response functions, with Poisson or quasi-Poisson error distribution, were fitted for diatom taxa on a pH gradient. It is possible to predict or infer the pH of lake water from the fitted curves using the method of maximum likelihood, which is easily implemented in standard non-linear regressionprograms. Due to overdis-persion with respect to the Poisson distribution, moment estimates forthe negative binomial distribution were also applied, both in estimating the species response curves and in prediction. Simulations indicated that the theoretical maximum precision (measuredby standard deviation of prediction errors) in our data set was 0.17 pH units. The observed errors were much greater (SD 0.35 to 0.43). It seems that roughly equal proportions of the excess error were caused (1) by systematic differences between the training (estimation) data and the validation (prediction) data, and (2) from a misspecified model. It is suggested that the error due to model misspecification consists of inadequacy of the presumed error distribution and of inadequacy of the simple Gaussian response function.

Chrysophyte scales recorded in lake sediments from eastern Finland

Chrysophyte (mallomonadacean) scales were examined from the surface sediments of 18 lakes from eastern Finland, representing a wide range of limnological characteristics. Scales were always well preserved and 23 taxa were observed. The relative frequencies of the dominant taxa were plotted relative to the average autumn lakewater pH. The distribution of chrysophyte species in the calibration set was ordinated by means of DECORANA analysis. The occurrence of these species appeared to be closely related to pH, colour and nutrients in the ordinated lake groups. Chrysophyte scales are potentially useful environmental and paleolimnological indicators in eastern Finland.