Jouko Rautava

The Role of Oil Prices and the Real Exchange Rate in Russia's Economy

Most people seem to think that Russias economy and fiscal situation are still crucially tied up with international oil prices and the exchange rate of the rouble, although this view has recently been challenged by some analysts. Empirical research on this topic is, however, scanty. In this paper, the impact of international oil prices and the real exchange rate on Russias economy and fiscal policy is analysed using VAR methodology and cointegration techniques. The research period covered is 1995:Q1 - 2001:Q3. The results indicate that in the long run a 10% permanent increase (decrease) in international oil prices is associated with a 2.2% growth (fall) in the level of Russian GDP. Respectively, a 10% real appreciation (depreciation) of the rouble is associated with a 2.4% decline (increase) in the level of output. These long-run equilibrium relationships also have a significant impact on short-run dynamics through an error-correction mechanism. The estimation results confirm also a strong dependence of fiscal revenues on output and oil price fluctuations. Estimated parameters and diagnostic statistics do not indicate that Russias dependence on oil and the real exchange rate would somehow have weakened in recent years.

Do Sentiment Indicators Help to Assess and Predict Actual Developments of the Chinese Economy

This paper evaluates the usefulness of business sentiment indicators for forecasting developments in the Chinese real economy. We use data on diffusion indices collected by the Peoples Bank of China for forecasting industrial production, retail sales and exports. Our bivariate vector autoregressive models, each composed of one diffusion index and one real sector variable, generally outperform univariate autoregressive models in forecasting one to four quarters ahead. Similarly, principal components analysis, combining information from various diffusion indices, leads to enhanced forecasting performance. Our results indicate that Chinese business sentiment indicators convey useful information about current and future developments in the real economy. Moreover, the results could be seen as support for the reliability of the official data on the real economy, as both survey and real sector data seem to reflect the same underlying economic dynamics. … But historically, we always observed in the past that the hard data followed suit soft data. There was a strong correlation. (Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank)1