Joy E Lawn

4 million neonatal deaths: When? Where? Why?

The proportion of child deaths that occurs in the neonatal period (38% in 2000) is increasing, and the Millennium Development Goal for child survival cannot be met without substantial reductions in neonatal mortality. Every year an estimated 4 million babies die in the first 4 weeks of life (the neonatal period). A similar number are stillborn, and 0.5 million mothers die from pregnancy-related causes. Three-quarters of neonatal deaths happen in the first week--the highest risk of death is on the first day of life. Almost all (99%) neonatal deaths arise in low-income and middle-income countries, yet most epidemiological and other research focuses on the 1% of deaths in rich countries. The highest numbers of neonatal deaths are in south-central Asian countries and the highest rates are generally in sub-Saharan Africa. The countries in these regions (with some exceptions) have made little progress in reducing such deaths in the past 10-15 years. Globally, the main direct causes of neonatal death are estimated to be preterm birth (28%), severe infections (26%), and asphyxia (23%). Neonatal tetanus accounts for a smaller proportion of deaths (7%), but is easily preventable. Low birthweight is an important indirect cause of death. Maternal complications in labour carry a high risk of neonatal death, and poverty is strongly associated with an increased risk. Preventing deaths in newborn babies has not been a focus of child survival or safe motherhood programmes. While we neglect these challenges, 450 newborn children die every hour, mainly from preventable causes, which is unconscionable in the 21st century.

Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality in 2008: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND Up-to-date information on the causes of child deaths is crucial to guide global efforts to improve child survival. We report new estimates for 2008 of the major causes of death in children younger than 5 years. METHODS We used multicause proportionate mortality models to estimate deaths in neonates aged 0-27 days and children aged 1-59 months, and selected single-cause disease models and analysis of vital registration data when available to estimate causes of child deaths. New data from China and India permitted national data to be used for these countries instead of predictions based on global statistical models, as was done previously. We estimated proportional causes of death for 193 countries, and by application of these proportions to the country-specific mortality rates in children younger than 5 years and birth rates, the numbers of deaths by cause were calculated for countries, regions, and the world. FINDINGS Of the estimated 8.795 million deaths in children younger than 5 years worldwide in 2008, infectious diseases caused 68% (5.970 million), with the largest percentages due to pneumonia (18%, 1.575 million, uncertainty range [UR] 1.046 million-1.874 million), diarrhoea (15%, 1.336 million, 0.822 million-2.004 million), and malaria (8%, 0.732 million, 0.601 million-0.851 million). 41% (3.575 million) of deaths occurred in neonates, and the most important single causes were preterm birth complications (12%, 1.033 million, UR 0.717 million-1.216 million), birth asphyxia (9%, 0.814 million, 0.563 million-0.997 million), sepsis (6%, 0.521 million, 0.356 million-0.735 million), and pneumonia (4%, 0.386 million, 0.264 million-0.545 million). 49% (4.294 million) of child deaths occurred in five countries: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, and China. INTERPRETATION These country-specific estimates of the major causes of child deaths should help to focus national programmes and donor assistance. Achievement of Millennium Development Goal 4, to reduce child mortality by two-thirds, is only possible if the high numbers of deaths are addressed by maternal, newborn, and child health interventions. FUNDING WHO, UNICEF, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality: an updated systematic analysis for 2010 with time trends since 2000

BACKGROUND Information about the distribution of causes of and time trends for child mortality should be periodically updated. We report the latest estimates of causes of child mortality in 2010 with time trends since 2000. METHODS Updated total numbers of deaths in children aged 0-27 days and 1-59 months were applied to the corresponding country-specific distribution of deaths by cause. We did the following to derive the number of deaths in children aged 1-59 months: we used vital registration data for countries with an adequate vital registration system; we applied a multinomial logistic regression model to vital registration data for low-mortality countries without adequate vital registration; we used a similar multinomial logistic regression with verbal autopsy data for high-mortality countries; for India and China, we developed national models. We aggregated country results to generate regional and global estimates. FINDINGS Of 7·6 million deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2010, 64·0% (4·879 million) were attributable to infectious causes and 40·3% (3·072 million) occurred in neonates. Preterm birth complications (14·1%; 1·078 million, uncertainty range [UR] 0·916-1·325), intrapartum-related complications (9·4%; 0·717 million, 0·610-0·876), and sepsis or meningitis (5·2%; 0·393 million, 0·252-0·552) were the leading causes of neonatal death. In older children, pneumonia (14·1%; 1·071 million, 0·977-1·176), diarrhoea (9·9%; 0·751 million, 0·538-1·031), and malaria (7·4%; 0·564 million, 0·432-0·709) claimed the most lives. Despite tremendous efforts to identify relevant data, the causes of only 2·7% (0·205 million) of deaths in children younger than 5 years were medically certified in 2010. Between 2000 and 2010, the global burden of deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased by 2 million, of which pneumonia, measles, and diarrhoea contributed the most to the overall reduction (0·451 million [0·339-0·547], 0·363 million [0·283-0·419], and 0·359 million [0·215-0·476], respectively). However, only tetanus, measles, AIDS, and malaria (in Africa) decreased at an annual rate sufficient to attain the Millennium Development Goal 4. INTERPRETATION Child survival strategies should direct resources toward the leading causes of child mortality, with attention focusing on infectious and neonatal causes. More rapid decreases from 2010-15 will need accelerated reduction for the most common causes of death, notably pneumonia and preterm birth complications. Continued efforts to gather high-quality data and enhance estimation methods are essential for the improvement of future estimates. FUNDING The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality in 2000-13, with projections to inform post-2015 priorities: an updated systematic analysis

BACKGROUND Trend data for causes of child death are crucial to inform priorities for improving child survival by and beyond 2015. We report child mortality by cause estimates in 2000-13, and cause-specific mortality scenarios to 2030 and 2035. METHODS We estimated the distributions of causes of child mortality separately for neonates and children aged 1-59 months. To generate cause-specific mortality fractions, we included new vital registration and verbal autopsy data. We used vital registration data in countries with adequate registration systems. We applied vital registration-based multicause models for countries with low under-5 mortality but inadequate vital registration, and updated verbal autopsy-based multicause models for high mortality countries. We used updated numbers of child deaths to derive numbers of deaths by causes. We applied two scenarios to derive cause-specific mortality in 2030 and 2035. FINDINGS Of the 6·3 million children who died before age 5 years in 2013, 51·8% (3·257 million) died of infectious causes and 44% (2·761 million) died in the neonatal period. The three leading causes are preterm birth complications (0·965 million [15·4%, uncertainty range (UR) 9·8-24·5]; UR 0·615-1·537 million), pneumonia (0·935 million [14·9%, 13·0-16·8]; 0·817-1·057 million), and intrapartum-related complications (0·662 million [10·5%, 6·7-16·8]; 0·421-1·054 million). Reductions in pneumonia, diarrhoea, and measles collectively were responsible for half of the 3·6 million fewer deaths recorded in 2013 versus 2000. Causes with the slowest progress were congenital, preterm, neonatal sepsis, injury, and other causes. If present trends continue, 4·4 million children younger than 5 years will still die in 2030. Furthermore, sub-Saharan Africa will have 33% of the births and 60% of the deaths in 2030, compared with 25% and 50% in 2013, respectively. INTERPRETATION Our projection results provide concrete examples of how the distribution of child causes of deaths could look in 15-20 years to inform priority setting in the post-2015 era. More evidence is needed about shifts in timing, causes, and places of under-5 deaths to inform child survival agendas by and beyond 2015, to end preventable child deaths in a generation, and to count and account for every newborn and every child. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Countdown to 2015 decade report (2000–10): taking stock of maternal, newborn, and child survival

The Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn, and Child Survival monitors coverage of priority interventions to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for child mortality and maternal health. We reviewed progress between 1990 and 2010 in coverage of 26 key interventions in 68 Countdown priority countries accounting for more than 90% of maternal and child deaths worldwide. 19 countries studied were on track to meet MDG 4, in 47 we noted acceleration in the yearly rate of reduction in mortality of children younger than 5 years, and in 12 countries progress had decelerated since 2000. Progress towards reduction of neonatal deaths has been slow, and maternal mortality remains high in most Countdown countries, with little evidence of progress. Wide and persistent disparities exist in the coverage of interventions between and within countries, but some regions have successfully reduced longstanding inequities. Coverage of interventions delivered directly in the community on scheduled occasions was higher than for interventions relying on functional health systems. Although overseas development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health has increased, funding for this sector accounted for only 31% of all development assistance for health in 2007. We provide evidence from several countries showing that rapid progress is possible and that focused and targeted interventions can reduce inequities related to socioeconomic status and sex. However, much more can and should be done to address maternal and newborn health and improve coverage of interventions related to family planning, care around childbirth, and case management of childhood illnesses.

Achieving child survival goals: potential contribution of community health workers

There is renewed interest in the potential contribution of community health workers to child survival. Community health workers can undertake various tasks, including case management of childhood illnesses (eg, pneumonia, malaria, and neonatal sepsis) and delivery of preventive interventions such as immunisation, promotion of healthy behaviour, and mobilisation of communities. Several trials show substantial reductions in child mortality, particularly through case management of ill children by these types of community interventions. However, community health workers are not a panacea for weak health systems and will need focussed tasks, adequate remuneration, training, supervision, and the active involvement of the communities in which they work. The introduction of large-scale programmes for community health workers requires evaluation to document the impact on child survival and cost effectiveness and to elucidate factors associated with success and sustainability.

Continuum of care for maternal, newborn, and child health: from slogan to service delivery

The continuum of care has become a rallying call to reduce the yearly toll of half a million maternal deaths, 4 million neonatal deaths, and 6 million child deaths. The continuum for maternal, newborn, and child health usually refers to continuity of individual care. Continuity of care is necessary throughout the lifecycle (adolescence, pregnancy, childbirth, the postnatal period, and childhood) and also between places of caregiving (including households and communities, outpatient and outreach services, and clinical-care settings). We define a population-level or public-health framework based on integrated service delivery throughout the lifecycle, and propose eight packages to promote health for mothers, babies, and children. These packages can be used to deliver more than 190 separate interventions, which would be difficult to scale up one by one. The packages encompass three which are delivered through clinical care (reproductive health, obstetric care, and care of sick newborn babies and children); four through outpatient and outreach services (reproductive health, antenatal care, postnatal care and child health services); and one through integrated family and community care throughout the lifecycle. Mothers and babies are at high risk in the first days after birth, and the lack of a defined postnatal care package is an important gap, which also contributes to discontinuity between maternal and child health programmes. Similarly, because the family and community package tends not to be regarded as part of the health system, few countries have made systematic efforts to scale it up or integrate it with other levels of care. Building the continuum of care for maternal, newborn, and child health with these packages will need effectiveness trials in various settings; policy support for integration; investment to strengthen health systems; and results-based operational management, especially at district level.

Stillbirths: Where? When? Why? How to make the data count?

Despite increasing attention and investment for maternal, neonatal, and child health, stillbirths remain invisible-not counted in the Millennium Development Goals, nor tracked by the UN, nor in the Global Burden of Disease metrics. At least 2·65 million stillbirths (uncertainty range 2·08 million to 3·79 million) were estimated worldwide in 2008 (≥1000 g birthweight or ≥28 weeks of gestation). 98% of stillbirths occur in low-income and middle-income countries, and numbers vary from 2·0 per 1000 total births in Finland to more than 40 per 1000 total births in Nigeria and Pakistan. Worldwide, 67% of stillbirths occur in rural families, 55% in rural sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where skilled birth attendance and caesarean sections are much lower than that for urban births. In total, an estimated 1·19 million (range 0·82 million to 1·97 million) intrapartum stillbirths occur yearly. Most intrapartum stillbirths are associated with obstetric emergencies, whereas antepartum stillbirths are associated with maternal infections and fetal growth restriction. National estimates of causes of stillbirths are scarce, and multiple (>35) classification systems impede international comparison. Immediate data improvements are feasible through household surveys and facility audit, and improvements in vital registration, including specific perinatal certificates and revised International Classification of Disease codes, are needed. A simple, programme-relevant stillbirth classification that can be used with verbal autopsy would provide a basis for comparable national estimates. A new focus on all deaths around the time of birth is crucial to inform programmatic investment.

Global report on preterm birth and stillbirth (1 of 7): definitions, description of the burden and opportunities to improve data

IntroductionThis is the first of seven articles from a preterm birth and stillbirth report. Presented here is an overview of the burden, an assessment of the quality of current estimates, review of trends, and recommendations to improve data.Preterm birthFew countries have reliable national preterm birth prevalence data. Globally, an estimated 13 million babies are born before 37 completed weeks of gestation annually. Rates are generally highest in low- and middle-income countries, and increasing in some middle- and high-income countries, particularly the Americas. Preterm birth is the leading direct cause of neonatal death (27%); more than one million preterm newborns die annually. Preterm birth is also the dominant risk factor for neonatal mortality, particularly for deaths due to infections. Long-term impairment is an increasing issue.StillbirthStillbirths are currently not included in Millennium Development Goal tracking and remain invisible in global policies. For international comparisons, stillbirths include late fetal deaths weighing more than 1000g or occurring after 28 weeks gestation. Only about 2% of all stillbirths are counted through vital registration and global estimates are based on household surveys or modelling. Two global estimation exercises reached a similar estimate of around three million annually; 99% occur in low- and middle-income countries. One million stillbirths occur during birth. Global stillbirth cause-of-death estimates are impeded by multiple, complex classification systems.Recommendations to improve data(1) increase the capture and quality of pregnancy outcome data through household surveys, the main data source for countries with 75% of the global burden; (2) increase compliance with standard definitions of gestational age and stillbirth in routine data collection systems; (3) strengthen existing data collection mechanisms—especially vital registration and facility data—by instituting a standard death certificate for stillbirth and neonatal death linked to revised International Classification of Diseases coding; (4) validate a simple, standardized classification system for stillbirth cause-of-death; and (5) improve systems and tools to capture acute morbidity and long-term impairment outcomes following preterm birth.ConclusionLack of adequate data hampers visibility, effective policies, and research. Immediate opportunities exist to improve data tracking and reduce the burden of preterm birth and stillbirth.

Stillbirth rates: delivering estimates in 190 countries

BACKGROUND While information about 4 million neonatal deaths worldwide is limited, even less information is available for stillbirths (babies born dead in the last 12 weeks of pregnancy) and there are no published, systematic global estimates. We sought to identify available data and use these to estimate the rates and numbers of stillbirths for 190 countries for the year 2000, and provide uncertainty estimates. METHODS We assessed three sources of stillbirth data according to specified inclusion criteria: vital registration; demographic and health surveys (DHS), based on a new analysis of contraceptive calendar data; and study reports that include published studies identified through systematic literature searches of more than 30,000 abstracts and unpublished studies. A random effects regression model was developed to predict national stillbirth rates and associated uncertainty intervals. FINDINGS Data from 44 countries with vital registration (71,442 stillbirths), 30 DHS surveys from 16 countries (2989 stillbirths), and 249 study populations from 103 countries (93,023 stillbirths) met the inclusion criteria. Model-based estimates were used for 128 countries. For 62 countries, the observed values were adjusted by a correction factor derived from the model. The resultant stillbirth rates ranged from five per 1000 in rich countries to 32 per 1000 in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The estimated number of global stillbirths is 3.2 million (uncertainty range 2.5-4.1 million). In light of the data limitations and the conservative approach taken, the real number might be higher than this. INTERPRETATION The numbers of stillbirths are high and there is a dearth of usable data in countries and regions in which most stillbirths occur, with under-reporting being a major challenge. Although our estimates are probably underestimates, they represent a rigorous attempt to measure the numbers of babies dying during the last trimester of pregnancy. Improving stillbirth data is the first step towards making stillbirths count in public-health action.