Juan Carlos Baez

Local tsunami warnings: Perspectives from recent large events

We demonstrate a flexible strategy for local tsunami warning that relies on regional geodetic and seismic stations. Through retrospective analysis of four recent tsunamigenic events in Japan and Chile, we show that rapid earthquake source information, provided by methodologies developed for earthquake early warning, can be used to generate timely estimates of maximum expected tsunami amplitude with enough accuracy for tsunami warning. We validate the technique by comparing to detailed models of earthquake source and tsunami propagation as well as field surveys of tsunami inundation. Our approach does not require deployment of new geodetic and seismic instrumentation in many subduction zones and could be implemented rapidly by national monitoring and warning agencies. We illustrate the potential impact of our method with a detailed comparison to the actual timeline of events during the recent 2015 Mw8.3 Illapel, Chile, earthquake and tsunami that prompted the evacuation of 1 million people.

The super‐interseismic phase of the megathrust earthquake cycle in Chile

Along a subduction zone, great megathrust earthquakes recur either after long seismic gaps lasting several decades to centuries or over much shorter periods lasting hours to a few years when cascading successions of earthquakes rupture nearby segments of the fault. We analyze a decade of continuous Global Positioning System observations along the South American continent to estimate changes in deformation rates between the 2010 Maule (M8.8) and 2015 Illapel (M8.3) Chilean earthquakes. We find that surface velocities increased after the 2010 earthquake, in response to continental-scale viscoelastic mantle relaxation and to regional-scale increased degree of interplate locking. We propose that increased locking occurs transiently during a super-interseismic phase in segments adjacent to a megathrust rupture, responding to bending of both plates caused by coseismic slip and subsequent afterslip. Enhanced strain rates during a super-interseismic phase may therefore bring a megathrust segment closer to failure and possibly triggered the 2015 event.

Separating rapid relocking, afterslip, and viscoelastic relaxation: An application of the postseismic straightening method to the Maule 2010 cGPS

The postseismic deformation captured with continuous Global Positioning System (cGPS) monitoring following many recent mega-thrust events has been shown to be a signal composed of two dominant processes: afterslip on the plate interface and viscoelastic relaxation of the continental and oceanic mantles in response to the coseismic stress perturbation. Following the south-central Chile 2010 Maule Mw 8.8 earthquake, the time series from the regional cGPS network show a distinct curvature in the pathway of the horizontal motion that is not easily fit by a stationary decaying pattern of afterslip in combination with viscoelastic relaxation. Here we show that with realistic assumptions about the long-term decay of the afterslip signal, the postseismic signal can be decomposed into three first-order contributing processes: plate interface re-locking, plate interface afterslip, and mantle viscoelastic relaxation. From our analyses we conclude that the plate interface recovers its interseismic locking state rapidly (model space ranges between an instant recovery and a period of 1 year); a finding that supports laboratory experimental evidence as well as some recent studies of aftershocks and postseismic surface deformation. Furthermore, re-locking is the main cause of the curvature in the cGPS signal, and this study presents a plausible range of geodetic re-locking rates following a megathrust earthquake.

Reawakening of large earthquakes in south central Chile: The 2016 Mw 7.6 Chiloé event

On 25 December 2016, the Mw 7.6 Chiloe earthquake broke a plate-boundary asperity in South- Central Chile near the center of the rupture zone of the Mw 9.5 Valdivia earthquake of 1960. To gain insight on decadal-scale deformation trends and their relation with the Chiloe earthquake, we combine geodetic, teleseismic and regional seismological data. GPS velocities increased at continental scale after the 2010 Maule earthquake, probably due to a readjustment in the mantle flow and an apparently abrupt end of the viscoelastic mantle relaxation following the 1960 Valdivia earthquake. It also produced an increase in the degree of plate locking. The Chiloe earthquake occurred within the region of increased locking, breaking a circular patch of ~15 km radius at ~30 km depth, located near the bottom of the seismogenic zone. We propose that the Chiloe earthquake is a first sign of the seismic reawakening of the Valdivia segment, in response to the interaction between postseismic viscoelastic relaxation and changes of interseismic locking between Nazca and South-America.

Coseismic slip and afterslip of the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel (Chile) earthquake determined from continuous GPS data

We analyzed the coseismic and early postseismic deformation of the 2015, Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake by inverting 13 continuous GPS time series. The seismic rupture concentrated in a shallow (<20 km depth) and 100 km long asperity, which slipped up to 8 m, releasing a seismic moment of 3.6 × 1021 Nm (Mw = 8.3). After 43 days, postseismic afterslip encompassed the coseismic rupture. Afterslip concentrated in two main patches of 0.50 m between 20 and 40 km depth along the northern and southern ends of the rupture, partially overlapping the coseismic slip. Afterslip and aftershocks confined to region of positive Coulomb stress change, promoted by the coseismic slip. The early postseismic afterslip was accommodated ~53% aseismically and ~47% seismically by aftershocks. The Illapel earthquake rupture is confined by two low interseismic coupling zones, which coincide with two major features of the subducting Nazca Plate, the Challenger Fault Zone and Juan Fernandez Ridge.

The 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel, Chile, earthquake: direction-reversed along-dip rupture with localized water reverberation

National Science Foundation of China 41374040 41090294 Hellman Fellowship University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Faculty Research Grant National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) NAS7-03001 JPL Award 1468977

Chilean megathrust earthquake recurrence linked to frictional contrast at depth

Fundamental processes of the seismic cycle in subduction zones, including those controlling the recurrence and size of great earthquakes, are still poorly understood. Here, by studying the 2016 earthquake in southern Chile—the first large event within the rupture zone of the 1960 earthquake (moment magnitude (Mw) = 9.5)—we show that the frictional zonation of the plate interface fault at depth mechanically controls the timing of more frequent, moderate-size deep events (Mw < 8) and less frequent, tsunamigenic great shallow earthquakes (Mw > 8.5). We model the evolution of stress build-up for a seismogenic zone with heterogeneous friction to examine the link between the 2016 and 1960 earthquakes. Our results suggest that the deeper segments of the seismogenic megathrust are weaker and interseismically loaded by a more strongly coupled, shallower asperity. Deeper segments fail earlier (~60 yr recurrence), producing moderate-size events that precede the failure of the shallower region, which fails in a great earthquake (recurrence >110 yr). We interpret the contrasting frictional strength and lag time between deeper and shallower earthquakes to be controlled by variations in pore fluid pressure. Our integrated analysis strengthens understanding of the mechanics and timing of great megathrust earthquakes, and therefore could aid in the seismic hazard assessment of other subduction zones.The recurrence time of megathrust earthquakes in Chile may be controlled by frictional contrasts at depth, according to analyses of stress build-up and release related to the December 2016 southern Chile earthquake.

Nucleation Phase and Dynamic Inversion of the Mw 6.9 Valparaíso 2017 Earthquake in Central Chile

The Valparaiso 2017 sequence occurred in the Central Chile mega-thrust, an active zone where the last mega-earthquake occurred in 1730. Intense seismicity started 2 days before the Mw 6.9 main-shock, a slow trench-ward movement was observed in the coastal GPS antennas and was accompanied by foreshocks and repeater-type seismicity. To characterize the rupture process of the main-shock, we perform a dynamic inversion using the strong-motion records and an elliptical patch approach. We suggest that a slow slip event preceded and triggered the Mw 6.9 earthquake, which ruptured an elliptical asperity (semi-axis of 10 km and 5 km, with a sub-shear rupture, stress drop of 11.71 MPa, yield stress of 17.21 MPa, slip weakening of 0.65 m and kappa value of 1.98). This earthquake could be the beginning of a long-term nucleation phase to a major rupture, within the highly coupled Central Chile zone where a mega-thrust earthquake like 1730 is expected.

Brazilian Vertical Datum Monitoring - Vertical Land Movements and Sea Level Variations

UFPR’s Geodetic Instrumentation Laboratory carried out several geodetic campaigns at Brazilian Vertical Datum during the last nine years. The last campaign performed in the first semester of 2005 had as main goals: calibration of two sea level sensors of the tide gauge station; periodic GPS observations at one SIRGAS station, used to materialize the tide gauge geocentric position; and leveling of the benchmarks in the harbor area. In this work there are presented results obtained with this campaign and some comparisons to past campaigns. The main objective is to check the stability of the GPS station in order to estimate vertical land movements and sea level variations. GPS results indicate a tendency of subsidence of 0.2mm/a with a standard deviation of 0.1mm/a at the station.

Tests on Integrating Gravity and Leveling to Realize SIRGAS Vertical Reference System in Brazil

The integration of gravity data within the Brazilian leveling network is very difficult due to the historical dissociation between leveling and gravity surveys. This research was started, in the context of SIRGAS Project, to resolve this problem by evaluating different strategies and procedures with the aim of establishing some kind of gravity coverage over vertical reference stations. Data employed in this article comes from one of the few areas where the points of the Brazilian fundamental leveling network are entirely covered with gravity surveys and, in addition, connect three permanent GPS stations, two of which belong to the SIRGAS 2000 Reference Network. This will allow for several analyses regarding the Brazilian realization of SIRGAS Vertical System, including: an evaluation of the effects of adopting different types of heights; and the investigation of strategies and procedures to solve the absence of gravity values over benchmarks. Values of geopotential differences were computed and adjusted, for a 2300 km network consisting of six loops with perimeters ranging from 136 km to 690 km. Dynamic, Helmert, Normal and Normal-Orthometric reductions were generated and compared. The status of the development of a GIS designed for the tasks involved in geopotential numbers computation to be applied in the studies related to the SIRGAS Vertical Reference System is also presented.