Judith Blake

Family size and the quality of children

If couples decide to have fewer children in order to achieve higher “quality” offspring, are they correct in assuming that the quality of children bears an important and inverse relation to family size? If they are correct, how does number of children operate to affect individual quality? This research (using U.S. whites primarily) takes educational attainment (among adults) and college plans (among youngsters) as the principal indicators of quality, but also directs some attention to measures of intelligence. The analysis supports the “dilution model” (on average, the more children the lower the quality of each child) and indicates that only children do not suffer from lack of siblings, and that other last-borns are not handicapped by a “teaching deficit.” Number of siblings (relative to other background variables) is found to have an important detrimental impact on child quality—an impact compounded by the fact that, when couples are at a stage in life to make family-size decisions, most background factors (however important to the quality of their children) are no longer readily manipulable. A special path analysis of college plans among boys uses a modification of Sewell’s Wisconsin Model as its base. The results show that number of siblings is a negative influence on intervening variables affecting college plans. In general, the research documents the unfavorable consequences for individual siblings of high fertility, even in a country that is (at least for whites) as socially, economically, and politically advantaged as the United States.

Number of siblings, family background, and the process of educational attainment

The effects of number of siblings on educational attainment were analyzed in probability samples of 57,000 white men in the US. Also addressed was the relative importance of sibship size compared with fathers education, fathers socioeconomic status, farm background, and a broken family. The data revealed a marked linear association between sibsize and total years of education. The difference between the extremes of sibsize was more than double the racial difference and 3 times the age difference. Sibsize operates not simply by diluting parental economic resources for postsecondary education, but by impinging on education at the graded level. Males from large versus small families lose an average of 1 year of graded schooling, which implies large differences in proportions graduating from high school. Sibsize influences college attendance much less than it influences graded schooling; at higher levels of education, IQ, performance, and motivation are more decisive factors. Whereas fathers education and sibsize are the most important determinants of total years of education and years of graded schooling, college schooling is more dependent on the fathers socioeconomic status than other family background variables.

Negativismr equivocation, and wobbly assent: public “support” for the prochoice platform on abortion

Although disapproval of all justifications for abortion is rare in the United States, our analysis of numerous surveys taken in the 1960s and 1970s shows that support for the full prochoice platform is also rare. This means that respondents who endorse some justifications for abortion and reject others typically constitute about 50 percent of these samples. If forced to choose politically between polar positions, would these people be more likely to side with a positive or a negative extreme? Using Multiple Classification Analysis as a form of discriminant analysis, we examine whether people who appear to form a “middle” group actually are closer in their characteristics to those who are positive, or to those who are negative. Finally, we test to see whether those respondents who endorse all four justifications for abortion (health, child defect, financial stress, and elective abortion) also endorse additional prochoice positions, such as government payments for abortion, abortion without the husband’s or the parent’s consent, and abortion after the first trimester.

Predictors of family-size preferences, 1945-1977: a multivariate analysis.

This paper focuses on a set of substantive and methodological problems in the study of family size preferences. Substantively we ask whether traditional sociodemographic variables explain proportionately more or less variance in family size preference during the mid-1970s than during the period following WW 2. Additionally we inquire whether individual variables such as race religion education and community size perform differently in recent years than they did in the postwar period. Methodologically the authors question whether analogous trends emerge from including diverse indicators of family size preferences. Using Multiple Classification Analysis no diminution over the tiem period is found in the proportion of variance explained by the sociodemographic predictors considered. In fact these variables appear to increase in predictive power over time. However some variables have clearly changed in marginal importance the WW 2. Religious affiliation and community size have declined and race has increased. Educational level has maintained a major position throughout. Finally the differentials in reproductive preferences are very congruent regardless of the dependent variable used--family size ideals preferences intentions or ideals for the average American family. (Authors modified)