Judith Yates

The rhetoric and reality of housing choice: The role of urban consolidation

Abstract In Australia, growth at the fringe has been seen as an inevitable response to a lack of affordable housing in the inner and middle zones of the major metropolitan cities. Urban consolidation was seen as one way of improving housing affordability and increasing housing choices and, at the same time, constraining outward growth. It will do so only if households forego past preferences for ownership of a detached house. This paper examines the contribution urban consolidation has made to meeting affordability and choice objectives by providing some insights into whether households are trading off tenure choices for lifestyle choices based on location and dwelling type. It also provides information on the extent of spatial polarisation of income that has contributed to the observed outcomes.

W(h)ither Low Cost Private Rental Housing

Abstract This paper uses census data for 1986 and 1996 to estimate the shortage of low cost private rental stock in Australia. During this period there was a 34 per cent increase in the number of households in private rental, with a disproportionate growth in households with either low or high incomes. At the same time, however, the private rental stock affordable for these households declined significantly. This combination of increased need and decreased supply has resulted in an overall shortage of low cost stock. This shortage is exacerbated by a ‘misallocation’ of existing low cost stock, arising from its use by high income households.

Is Australia's Home-ownership Rate Really Stable? An Examination of Change between 1975 and 1994

Australia has exhibited a remarkably stable home-ownership rate of 70 per cent for over thee decades. However, this paper questions whether this rate is sustainable. Decomposition techniques based on tenure choice models are used to provide evidence of changing homeownership patterns in Australia between 1975 and 1994. The results indicate a distinct change in home-ownership propensities which is neither uniform across age-groups, nor uniform for different household types with both the same and with different levels of income. A number of tentative explanations are proposed, each of which provides the basis for further research on the factors affecting household tenure decisions. This is essential if the potential for a significant decline in home-ownership is to be seen as a matter of concern.

Towards a reassessment of the private rental market

Abstract An increased reliance on market forces has led to a reassessment of the role of the private rental market in a number of countries. This paper suggests this increased interest shown by governments attempting to withdraw from the housing market and by consumers unable to gain access to owner occupation or social housing is not necessarily shared by investors. It argues there is little to indicate a reversal of the supply side factors which contributed to the widespread post‐war decline of the private rental market and suggests many of the proposals currently under consideration in various European countries may not resolve emerging housing problems. Contrary to experiences elsewhere, the private rental market in Australia has remained robust because of the actions of small‐scale individual landlords. The paper uses survey information on the characteristics and motivations of these landlords to identify the critical factors which have sustained their investment in rental housing. From this it deriv...

Market Provision of Affordable Rental Housing: Lessons from Recent Trends in Australia

This article provides new evidence on the supply of private rental dwellings affordable for low income households in Australia in 1996 and 2001 and on shortages or surpluses of affordable dwellings in each period. The results indicate a decline in the supply of low rent dwellings between 1996 and 2001 and a resultant shortage of dwellings affordable for low income households in 2001. However, the size of the low rent supply is only the first affordability hurdle for low income households because much of the low rent stock was occupied by higher income households. Employed higher income young families compete with low income older single persons for access to the low rent stock. Once stock utilisation is taken into account, the shortage of dwellings affordable and available for low income households is increased. Moreover, an apparent surplus of dwellings affordable for low to moderate income households is converted to a significant shortage. The article concludes by raising concerns about the shift to policies that rely on the private rental market to provide affordable rental housing.

Changing directions in Australian housing policies: The end of muddling through?

Abstract From the post‐war period through to the 1980s, Australias housing system was dominated by tenure‐based policies directed towards home ownership and the provision of public housing. Private tenants were virtually excluded from housing assistance of any form. The 1990s, however, have seen an apparent U‐turn in housing policies with elimination of explicit home ownership policies, the withdrawal from direct involvement in public housing funding and a rapid expansion of rental assistance for private tenants. Australia is about to follow its New Zealand neighbour in undertaking a wholesale shift away from direct intervention in the production of housing and moving towards consumer subsidies which rely on the effective operation of the private sector in meeting housing needs. This paper provides a brief overview of changes in policies towards home ownership, public rental and private rental, a framework for interpreting these and an assessment of the appropriateness of the directions currently being f...

Discrete Choice Modelling of Urban Housing Markets: A Critical Review and an Application

The housing choice literature is a vast area of housing research which has resulted in giant leaps forward in recent years in terms of its econometric modelling. This is due in large part to the significant increases now available in computing power allowing researchers to combine the latest advances in theory with empirical application. This paper brings together and critically reviews the housing choice literature and techniques that have been used to model the households housing choice decision. The basic multinomial logit model is reviewed alongside the more recent advances in discrete choice modelling-the nested multinomial logit model and the heteroscedastic extreme value model. The various techniques are illustrated using data from the Australian census of 1986 and 1996 to model housing choice in Sydney. The results show that careful consideration must be given to the assumptions underlying any chosen modelling technique if one is not to draw misleading conclusions from the analysis.

In Defence of Greater Agnosticism: A Response to Galster's 'Comparing Demand-side and Supply-side Housing Policies'

ABSTRACT This paper provides a response to Galsters claim that demand-side subsidies are generally superior to supply-side subsidies. It argues that Galsters conclusion is based on a US view of how different housing systems work, that it fails to consider empirical outcomes, that it abstracts from the structure and delivery of subsidies and, despite recognising the importance of this, that it ignores the particular contexts within which markets operate. It also queries Galsters choice of goals against which policy effectiveness is assessed. Galster ignores the direct impact of subsidy design on recipient households; he ignores the effect of delivery mechanisms on social segregation and socio-tenurial polarisation; he ignores a range of macro-economic concerns. The paper presents a case for greater agnosticism in the light of imperfect information.

Housing Implications of Social, Spatial and Structural Change

Over the past few decades Australia, like a number of other countries, has experienced a significant polarisation of household incomes as a result of social, demographic and economic changes. At the same time there has been a significant decline in home purchase rates amongst younger households. The paper uses micro data from the 1986 and 1996 censuses to explore some of the spatial and socio-economic implications of this change in housing tenure. It raises the question whether these changes are both related and interrelated. It suggests that tenure might be yet another factor that contributes to a process of social and spatial polarisation.

Evaluating social and affordable housing reform in Australia: lessons to be learned from history

Significant changes were introduced to the finance of social and affordable rental housing in Australia from 2007. These aimed to restructure social housing provision and encourage an increase in the supply of affordable housing. This paper evaluates these changes in light of experience with the provision of social housing in Australia over a 50-year period. It suggests that lessons from history explain why, without additional support, current changes are unlikely to be successful in meeting their intended goals.