Juha Kiviluoma

Global potential for wind-generated electricity

The potential of wind power as a global source of electricity is assessed by using winds derived through assimilation of data from a variety of meteorological sources. The analysis indicates that a network of land-based 2.5-megawatt (MW) turbines restricted to nonforested, ice-free, nonurban areas operating at as little as 20% of their rated capacity could supply >40 times current worldwide consumption of electricity, >5 times total global use of energy in all forms. Resources in the contiguous United States, specifically in the central plain states, could accommodate as much as 16 times total current demand for electricity in the United States. Estimates are given also for quantities of electricity that could be obtained by using a network of 3.6-MW turbines deployed in ocean waters with depths <200 m within 50 nautical miles (92.6 km) of closest coastlines.

Accommodating Variability in Generation Planning

Many of the most commonly used generation planning models have been formulated in a way that neglects the chronological sequence of demand and the mixed-integer nature of generating units. The generator schedules assumed by these models are inaccurate and become increasingly divorced from real schedules with increasing variability. This paper seeks to characterize and quantify the limitations of these models over a broad set of input parameters. For an illustrative set of test systems, wind capacities and generator types, annual system costs are determined for all combinations of generating units using a unit-commitment model, which captures the chronological behavior of units and a dispatch model which does not. It is seen that the relative performance of the dispatch model is highly system specific but generally degrades with increasing variability. The difference in cost estimates between the models is decomposed into start costs, starts avoidance and average cost estimation error. The impact on least-cost portfolios is shown and finally sensitivities are performed with the addition of hydro and nuclear power to assess their impact.

Short-Term Energy Balancing With Increasing Levels of Wind Energy

Increasing levels of wind energy are adding to the uncertainty and variability inherent in electricity grids and are consequently driving changes. Here, some of the possible evolutions in optimal short-term energy balancing to better deal with wind energy uncertainty are investigated. The focus is mainly on managing reserves through changes in scheduling, in particular market structure (more regular and higher resolution scheduling), reserve procurement (dynamic as opposed to static), and improved operational planning (stochastic as opposed to deterministic). Infrastructure changes including flexible plant, increased demand side participation, more interconnection, transmission, larger balancing areas, and critically improved forecasting can also be significant and are dealt with in the discussion. The evolutions are tightly coupled, their impact is system-dependent and so no “best” set is identifiable but experience of system operators will be critical to future developments.

Flexibility in 21st Century Power Systems

Flexibility of operation--the ability of a power system to respond to change in demand and supply--is a characteristic of all power systems. Flexibility is especially prized in twenty-first century power systems, with higher levels of grid-connected variable renewable energy (primarily, wind and solar). This paper summarizes the analytic frameworks that have emerged to measure this characteristic and distills key principles of flexibility for policy makers.

Impact of wind power on the unit commitment, operating reserves, and market design

This article highlights and demonstrates the new requirements variable and partly unpredictable wind power will bring to unit commitment and power system operations. Current practice is described and contrasted against the new requirements. Literature specifically addressing questions about wind power and unit commitment related power system operations is surveyed. The scope includes forecast errors, operating reserves, intra-day markets, and sharing reserves across interconnections. The discussion covers the critical issues arising from the research.

Harnessing Flexibility from Hot and Cold

As has been often reported, electricity systems with high levels of variable wind and solar power generation would benefit from demand flexibility. What is not as often mentioned is that electrification of the transport and heat sectors could exacerbate the need for flexibility, if they are implemented as inflexible loads. This demand could also be made more flexible, but it comes with a cost. The main issue is to identify the cases in which the benefits will outweigh those costs, a matter that will naturally depend on the evolution of specific energy systems. In this article, we lay out some generic principles and characteristics related to heatsector flexibility and demonstrate its possibilities using specific examples. While we generally use the word heat here, most of the discussions also apply to cool, which, after all, is just another form of temperature difference.

Market designs for high levels of variable generation

Variable renewable generation is increasing in penetration in modern power systems, leading to higher variability in the supply and price of electricity as well as lower average spot prices. This raises new challenges, particularly in ensuring sufficient capacity and flexibility from conventional technologies. As the fixed costs and lifetimes of electricity generation investments are significant, designing markets and regulations which ensure efficient integration of renewable generation is a significant challenge. This panel presentation reviews the state of play in the USA and Europe with regard to these issues and considers new developments in both regions.

Comparison of flexibility options to improve the value of variable power generation

ABSTRACT As the share of variable generation in power systems increases, there is increasing value in more flexible use and generation of electricity. The paper compares the economic value of several flexibility options in a large power system with a large amount of reservoir hydro power. Generation planning models are needed to consider the impact of flexibility options on other investments in a power system. However, generation planning models do not include all the relevant operational details. The approach in the paper combines a generation planning model with a unit commitment and dispatch model. The results demonstrate the value of coupling the heat and power sectors and the value of transmission. Low-cost electricity storage does not appear to be as decisive in the Northern European context with wind power as the main variable generation source. The paper also addresses methodological issues related to the inclusion of operational constraints in generation planning.

Sensitivity of electricity prices in energy-only markets with large amounts of zero marginal cost generation

This paper explores the sensitivity of electricity prices in energy-only markets with large amounts of wind and solar power. After electricity prices have fallen in many energy-only markets in recent years, the topic has been discussed in many studies with different approaches. The approach in this paper is to perform extensive electricity market simulations. The study is based on the North European power system, and it was carried out using a generation planning model to create reasonable capacity mixes for future, and a unit commitment and economic dispatch model to simulate electricity prices. The results show that the amount of base load generation capacity and overcapacity has a very high impact on electricity prices. The share of wind and solar power and the price of CO2 also have a clearly detectable, but less significant, impact.

Reduction of CO 2 emissions due to wind energy - methods and issues in estimating operational emission reductions

This paper presents ways of estimating CO2 reductions of wind power using different methodologies. Estimates based on historical data have more pitfalls in methodology than estimates based on dispatch simulations. Taking into account exchange of electricity with neighboring regions is challenging for all methods. Results for CO2 emission reductions are shown from several countries. Wind power will reduce emissions for about 0.3-0.4 MtCO2/MWh when replacing mainly gas and up to 0.7 MtCO2/MWh when replacing mainly coal powered generation. The paper focuses on CO2 emissions from power system operation phase, but long term impacts are shortly discussed.