Jules K. Koffi

Climate change and habitat fragmentation drive the occurrence of Borrelia burgdorferi, the agent of Lyme disease, at the northeastern limit of its distribution

Lyme borreliosis is rapidly emerging in Canada, and climate change is likely a key driver of the northern spread of the disease in North America. We used field and modeling approaches to predict the risk of occurrence of Borrelia burgdorferi, the bacteria causing Lyme disease in North America. We combined climatic and landscape variables to model the current and future (2050) potential distribution of the black‐legged tick and the white‐footed mouse at the northeastern range limit of Lyme disease and estimated a risk index for B. burgdorferi from these distributions. The risk index was mostly constrained by the distribution of the white‐footed mouse, driven by winter climatic conditions. The next factor contributing to the risk index was the distribution of the black‐legged tick, estimated from the temperature. Landscape variables such as forest habitat and connectivity contributed little to the risk index. We predict a further northern expansion of B. burgdorferi of approximately 250–500 km by 2050 – a rate of 3.5–11 km per year – and identify areas of rapid rise in the risk of occurrence of B. burgdorferi. Our results will improve understanding of the spread of Lyme disease and inform management strategies at the most northern limit of its distribution.

Passive surveillance for I. scapularis ticks: enhanced analysis for early detection of emerging Lyme disease risk.

ABSTRACT Lyme disease (LD) is emerging in Canada because of the northward expansion of the geographic range of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis (Say). Early detection of emerging areas of LD risk is critical to public health responses, but the methods to do so on a local scale are lacking. Passive tick surveillance has operated in Canada since 1990 but this method lacks specificity for identifying areas where tick populations are established because of dispersion of ticks from established LD risk areas by migratory birds. Using data from 70 field sites in Quebec visited previously, we developed a logistic regression model for estimating the risk of I. scapularis population establishment based on the number of ticks submitted in passive surveillance and a model-derived environmental suitability index. Sensitivity-specificity plots were used to select an optimal threshold value of the linear predictor from the model as the signal for tick population establishment. This value was used to produce an “Alert Map” identifying areas where the passive surveillance data suggested ticks were establishing in Quebec. Alert Map predictions were validated by field surveillance at 76 sites: the prevalence of established I. scapularis populations was significantly greater in areas predicted as high-risk by the Alert map (29 out of 48) than in areas predicted as moderate-risk (4 out of 30) (P < 0.001). This study suggests that Alert Maps created using this approach can provide a usefully rapid and accurate tool for early identification of emerging areas of LD risk at a geographic scale appropriate for local disease control and prevention activities.

Evidence of rapid changes in Lyme disease awareness in Canada

Lyme disease (LD) is emerging in Canada. A key preventive strategy is promoting the adoption by the general public of personal preventive behaviors regarding tick bites. The aim of this study was to measure the changes in public awareness toward ticks and LD before and after the launch of a national communication campaign in Canada using data from two surveys conducted in March and December 2014. The results show a significant increase in awareness of LD after compared to before the campaign, but also suggest that the importance of this increase is not equal amongst Canadian regions. Moreover, respondents whose level of awareness increased most significantly were those who lived in regions with low entomologic risk. The findings underline the importance of risk communications for emerging diseases and reinforce the need to understand the specific characteristics of the targeted populations before the implementation of communication campaigns to increase their efficacy.

Exposure and preventive behaviours toward ticks and Lyme disease in Canada: Results from a first national survey

Lyme disease (LD) risk is increasing in Canada. In 2014, the government of Canada launched a national communication campaign to raise awareness and promote the adoption of individual preventive behaviours toward ticks and LD. The objectives of this study were to evaluate and compare the adoption of LD preventive behaviours and the exposure to tick bites of Canadians in the five main targeted regions (British Columbia, Prairie provinces, Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces). A national survey was conducted in December 2014 (n=2876) to collect data on LD awareness, behaviours and risk factors. Overall, the proportion of respondents reporting tick exposure was high (20%). The results suggest that even though LD awareness was found to be high (with only 12% of the respondents reporting that they never heard about LD), less than half of the Canadians who heard about it have adopted specific preventive behaviours toward tick bites, such as regular tick checks (reported by 52%), protective clothing (50%), using tick repellent (41%) or shower or bath (41%) after visiting a wooded area in a LD risk area. Moreover, significant differences were found between regions, gender, age groups and dog ownership status, regarding preventive behaviours and factors of exposure. A high level of knowledge of Lyme disease, living in the Prairie region, as well as having found a tick on oneself or a relative, were found to be associated with the adoption of preventive behaviours. This study underlines the importance to take into account specific regional characteristics of risk and to maintain public health communication efforts through time in order to increase the adoption of preventive behaviours of Canadians.

Passive Tick Surveillance Provides an Accurate Early Signal of Emerging Lyme Disease Risk and Human Cases in Southern Canada

Abstract Lyme disease is an emerging public health threat in Canada. In this context, rapid detection of new risk areas is essential for timely application of prevention and control measures. In Canada, information on Lyme disease risk is collected through three surveillance activities: active tick surveillance, passive tick surveillance, and reported human cases. However, each method has shortcomings that limit its ability to rapidly and reliably identify new risk areas. We investigated the relationships between risk signals provided by human cases, passive and active tick surveillance to assess the performance of tick surveillance for early detection of emerging risk areas. We used regression models to investigate the relationships between the reported human cases, Ixodes scapularis (Say; Acari: Ixodidae) ticks collected on humans through passive surveillance and the density of nymphs collected by active surveillance from 2009 to 2014 in the province of Quebec. We then developed new risk indicators and validated their ability to discriminate risk levels used by provincial public health authorities. While there was a significant positive relationship between the risk signals provided all three surveillance methods, the strongest association was between passive tick surveillance and reported human cases. Passive tick submissions were a reasonable indicator of the abundance of ticks in the environment (sensitivity and specificity [Se and Sp] < 0.70), but were a much better indicator of municipalities with more than three human cases reported over 5 yr (Se = 0.88; Sp = 0.90). These results suggest that passive tick surveillance provides a timely and reliable signal of emerging risk areas for Lyme disease in Canada.

Evaluating the submission of digital images as a method of surveillance for Ixodes scapularis ticks

SUMMARY Widespread access to the internet is offering new possibilities for data collection in surveillance. We explore, in this study, the possibility of using an electronic tool to monitor occurrence of the tick vector of Lyme disease, Ixodes scapularis. The study aimed to compare the capacity for ticks to be identified in web-based submissions of digital images/photographs, to the traditional specimen-based identification method used by the provincial public health laboratory in Quebec, Canada. Forty-one veterinary clinics participated in the study by submitting digital images of ticks collected from pets via a website for image-based identification by an entomologist. The tick specimens were then sent to the provincial public health laboratory to be identified by the ‘gold standard’ method using a microscope. Of the images submitted online, 74·3% (284/382) were considered of high-enough quality to allow identification. The laboratory identified 382 tick specimens from seven different species, with I. scapularis representing 76% of the total submissions. Of the 284 ticks suitable for image-based species identification, 276 (97·2%) were correctly identified (Kappa statistic of 0·92, Z = 15·46, P < 0·001). This study demonstrates that image-based tick identification may be an accurate and useful method of detecting ticks for surveillance when images are of suitable quality.

A Risk Model for the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in the Prairie Provinces of Canada

Abstract Lyme disease is emerging in Canada due to geographic range expansion of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis Say. Recent areas of emergence include parts of the southeastern Canadian Prairie region. We developed a map of potential risk areas for future I. scapularis establishment in the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Six I. scapularis risk algorithms were developed using different formulations of three indices for environmental suitability: temperature using annual cumulative degree-days > 0 °C (DD > 0 °C; obtained from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite data as an index of conditions that allow I. scapularis to complete its life cycle), habitat as a combined geolayer of forest cover and agricultural land use, and rainfall. The relative performance of these risk algorithms was assessed using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) analysis with data on presence–absence of I. scapularis obtained from recent field surveillance in the Prairie Provinces accumulated from a number of sources. The ROC AUC values for the risk algorithms were significantly different (P < 0.01). The algorithm with six categories of DD > 0 °C, habitat as a simple dichotomous variable of presence or absence of forest, and normalized rainfall had the highest AUC of 0.74, representing “fair to good” performance of the risk algorithm. This algorithm had good (>80%) sensitivity in predicting positive I. scapularis surveillance sites, but low (50%) specificity as expected in this region where not all environmentally suitable habitats are expected to be occupied. Further prospective studies are needed to validate and perhaps improve the risk algorithm.

Evidence for increasing densities and geographic ranges of tick species of public health significance other than Ixodes scapularis in Québec, Canada

Climate change is driving emergence and establishment of Ixodes scapularis, the main vector of Lyme disease in Québec, Canada. As for the black-legged tick, I. scapularis Say, global warming may also favor northward expansion of other species of medically important ticks. The aims of this study were to determine (1) current diversity and abundance of ticks of public health significance other than I. scapularis, (2) sex and age of the human population bitten by these ticks (3), and the seasonal and geographic pattern of their occurrence. From 2007 to 2015, twelve tick species other than I. scapularis were submitted in the Québec passive tick surveillance program. Of these 9243 ticks, 91.2% were Ixodes cookei, 4.1% were Dermacentor variabilis, 4.0% were Rhipicephalus sanguineus and 0.7% were Amblyomma americanum. The combined annual proportion of submitted I. cookei, D. variabilis, R. sanguineus and A. americanum ticks in passive surveillance rose from 6.1% in 2007 to 16.0% in 2015 and an annual growing trend was observed for each tick species. The number of municipalities where I. cookei ticks were acquired rose from 104 to 197 during the same period. Of the 862 people bitten by these ticks, 43.3% were I. cookei ticks removed from children aged < 10 years. These findings demonstrate the need for surveillance of all the tick species of medical importance in Québec, particularly because climate may increase their abundance and geographic ranges, increasing the risk to the public of the diseases they transmit.