Julia Ershova

Prevalence of and risk factors for resistance to second-line drugs in people with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in eight countries: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND The prevalence of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis is increasing due to the expanded use of second-line drugs in people with multidrug-resistant (MDR) disease. We prospectively assessed resistance to second-line antituberculosis drugs in eight countries. METHODS From Jan 1, 2005, to Dec 31, 2008, we enrolled consecutive adults with locally confirmed pulmonary MDR tuberculosis at the start of second-line treatment in Estonia, Latvia, Peru, Philippines, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, and Thailand. Drug-susceptibility testing for study purposes was done centrally at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for 11 first-line and second-line drugs. We compared the results with clinical and epidemiological data to identify risk factors for resistance to second-line drugs and XDR tuberculosis. FINDINGS Among 1278 patients, 43·7% showed resistance to at least one second-line drug, 20·0% to at least one second-line injectable drug, and 12·9% to at least one fluoroquinolone. 6·7% of patients had XDR tuberculosis (range across study sites 0·8-15·2%). Previous treatment with second-line drugs was consistently the strongest risk factor for resistance to these drugs, which increased the risk of XDR tuberculosis by more than four times. Fluoroquinolone resistance and XDR tuberculosis were more frequent in women than in men. Unemployment, alcohol abuse, and smoking were associated with resistance to second-line injectable drugs across countries. Other risk factors differed between drugs and countries. INTERPRETATION Previous treatment with second-line drugs is a strong, consistent risk factor for resistance to these drugs, including XDR tuberculosis. Representative drug-susceptibility results could guide in-country policies for laboratory capacity and diagnostic strategies. FUNDING US Agency for International Development, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Korean Ministry of Health and Welfare.

Extensive drug resistance acquired during treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND Increasing access to drugs for the treatment of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis is crucial but could lead to increasing resistance to these same drugs. In 2000, the international Green Light Committee (GLC) initiative began to increase access while attempting to prevent acquired resistance. METHODS To assess the GLCs impact, we followed adults with pulmonary MDR tuberculosis from the start to the end of treatment with monthly sputum cultures, drug susceptibility testing, and genotyping. We compared the frequency and predictors of acquired resistance to second-line drugs (SLDs) in 9 countries that volunteered to participate, 5 countries that met GLC criteria, and 4 countries that did not apply to the GLC. RESULTS In total, 832 subjects were enrolled. Of those without baseline resistance to specific SLDs, 68 (8.9%) acquired extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis, 79 (11.2%) acquired fluoroquinolone (FQ) resistance, and 56 (7.8%) acquired resistance to second-line injectable drugs (SLIs). The relative risk (95% confidence interval [CI]) of acquired resistance was lower at GLC-approved sites: 0.27 (.16-.47) for XDR tuberculosis, 0.28 (.17-.45) for FQ, and 0.15 (.06-.39) to 0.60 (.34-1.05) for 3 different SLIs. The risk increased as the number of potentially effective drugs decreased. Controlling for baseline drug resistance and differences between sites, the odds ratios (95% CIs) were 0.21 (.07-.62) for acquired XDR tuberculosis and 0.23 (.09-.59) for acquired FQ resistance. CONCLUSIONS Treatment of MDR tuberculosis involves substantial risk of acquired resistance to SLDs, increasing as baseline drug resistance increases. The risk was significantly lower in programs documented by the GLC to meet specific standards.

Sputum culture conversion as a prognostic marker for end-of-treatment outcome in patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: a secondary analysis of data from two observational cohort studies

BACKGROUND Sputum culture conversion is often used as an early microbiological endpoint in phase 2 clinical trials of tuberculosis treatment on the basis of its assumed predictive value for end-of-treatment outcome, particularly in patients with drug-susceptible tuberculosis. We aimed to assess the validity of sputum culture conversion on solid media at varying timepoints, and the time to conversion, as prognostic markers for end-of-treatment outcome in patients with multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis. METHODS We analysed data from two large cohort studies of patients with MDR tuberculosis. We defined sputum culture conversion as two or more consecutive negative cultures from sputum samples obtained at least 30 days apart. To estimate the association of 2 month and 6 month conversion with successful treatment outcome, we calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs with random-effects multivariable logistic regression. We calculated predictive values with bivariate random-effects generalised linear mixed modelling. FINDINGS We assessed data for 1712 patients who had treatment success, treatment failure, or who died. Among patients with treatment success, median time to sputum culture conversion was significantly shorter than in those who had poor outcomes (2 months [IQR 1-3] vs 7 months [3 to ≥24]; log-rank p<0·0001). Furthermore, conversion status at 6 months (adjusted OR 14·07 [95% CI 10·05-19·71]) was significantly associated with treatment success compared with failure or death. Sputum culture conversion status at 2 months was significantly associated with treatment success only in patients who were HIV negative (adjusted OR 4·12 [95% CI 2·25-7·54]) or who had unknown HIV infection (3·59 [1·96-6·58]), but not in those who were HIV positive (0·38 [0·12-1·18]). Thus, the overall association of sputum culture conversion with a successful outcome was substantially greater at 6 months than at 2 months. 2 month conversion had low sensitivity (27·3% [95% confidence limit 16·6-41·4]) and high specificity (89·8% [82·3-94·4]) for prediction of treatment success. Conversely, 6 month sputum culture conversion status had high sensitivity (91·8% [85·9-95·4]), but moderate specificity (57·8% [42·5-71·6]). The maximum combined sensitivity and specificity for sputum culture conversion was reached between month 6 and month 10 of treatment. INTERPRETATION Time to sputum culture conversion, conversion status at 6 months, and conversion status at 2 months in patients without known HIV infection can be considered as proxy markers of end-of-treatment outcome in patients with MDR tuberculosis, although the overall association with treatment success is substantially stronger for 6 month than for 2 month conversion status. Investigators should consider these results regarding the validity of sputum culture conversion at various timepoints as an early predictor of treatment efficacy when designing phase 2 studies before investing substantial resources in large, long-term, phase 3 trials of new treatments for MDR tuberculosis. FUNDING US Agency for International Development, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Intramural Research of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes in Relation to Treatment and Initial Versus Acquired Second-Line Drug Resistance

BACKGROUND Resistance to second-line drugs develops during treatment of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis, but the impact on treatment outcome has not been determined. METHODS Patients with MDR tuberculosis starting second-line drug treatment were enrolled in a prospective cohort study. Sputum cultures were analyzed at a central reference laboratory. We compared subjects with successful and poor treatment outcomes in terms of (1) initial and acquired resistance to fluoroquinolones and second-line injectable drugs (SLIs) and (2) treatment regimens. RESULTS Of 1244 patients with MDR tuberculosis, 973 (78.2%) had known outcomes and 232 (18.6%) were lost to follow-up. Among those with known outcomes, treatment succeeded in 85.8% with plain MDR tuberculosis, 69.7% with initial resistance to either a fluoroquinolone or an SLI, 37.5% with acquired resistance to a fluoroquinolone or SLI, 29.3% with initial and 13.0% with acquired extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (P < .001 for trend). In contrast, among those with known outcomes, treatment success increased stepwise from 41.6% to 92.3% as the number of drugs proven effective increased from ≤1 to ≥5 (P < .001 for trend), while acquired drug resistance decreased from 12% to 16% range, depending on the drug, down to 0%-2% (P < .001 for trend). In multivariable analysis, the adjusted odds of treatment success decreased 0.62-fold (95% confidence interval, .56-.69) for each increment in drug resistance and increased 2.1-fold (1.40-3.18) for each additional effective drug, controlling for differences between programs and patients. Specific treatment, patient, and program variables were also associated with treatment outcome. CONCLUSIONS Increasing drug resistance was associated in a logical stepwise manner with poor treatment outcomes. Acquired resistance was worse than initial resistance to the same drugs. Increasing numbers of effective drugs, specific drugs, and specific program characteristics were associated with better outcomes and less acquired resistance.

Association between Regimen Composition and Treatment Response in Patients with Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Background For treating multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB), the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a regimen of at least four second-line drugs that are likely to be effective as well as pyrazinamide. WHO guidelines indicate only marginal benefit for regimens based directly on drug susceptibility testing (DST) results. Recent evidence from isolated cohorts suggests that regimens containing more drugs may be beneficial, and that DST results are predictive of regimen effectiveness. The objective of our study was to gain insight into how regimen design affects treatment response by analyzing the association between time to sputum culture conversion and both the number of potentially effective drugs included in a regimen and the DST results of the drugs in the regimen. Methods and Findings We analyzed data from the Preserving Effective Tuberculosis Treatment Study (PETTS), a prospective observational study of 1,659 adults treated for MDR TB during 2005–2010 in nine countries: Estonia, Latvia, Peru, Philippines, Russian Federation, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan. For all patients, monthly sputum samples were collected, and DST was performed on baseline isolates at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We included 1,137 patients in our analysis based on their having known baseline DST results for at least fluoroquinolones and second-line injectable drugs, and not having extensively drug-resistant TB. These patients were followed for a median of 20 mo (interquartile range 16–23 mo) after MDR TB treatment initiation. The primary outcome of interest was initial sputum culture conversion. We used Cox proportional hazards regression, stratifying by country to control for setting-associated confounders, and adjusting for the number of drugs to which patients’ baseline isolates were resistant, baseline resistance pattern, previous treatment history, sputum smear result, and extent of disease on chest radiograph. In multivariable analysis, receiving an average of at least six potentially effective drugs (defined as drugs without a DST result indicating resistance) per day was associated with a 36% greater likelihood of sputum culture conversion than receiving an average of at least five but fewer than six potentially effective drugs per day (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.36, 95% CI 1.09–1.69). Inclusion of pyrazinamide (aHR 2.00, 95% CI 1.65–2.41) or more drugs to which baseline DST indicated susceptibility (aHR 1.65, 95% CI 1.48–1.84, per drug) in regimens was associated with greater increases in the likelihood of sputum culture conversion than including more drugs to which baseline DST indicated resistance (aHR 1.33, 95% CI 1.18–1.51, per drug). Including in the regimen more drugs for which DST was not performed was beneficial only if a minimum of three effective drugs was present in the regimen (aHR 1.39, 95% CI 1.09–1.76, per drug when three effective drugs present in regimen). The main limitation of this analysis is that it is based on observational data, not a randomized trial, and drug regimens varied across sites. However, PETTS was a uniquely large and rigorous observational study in terms of both the number of patients enrolled and the standardization of laboratory testing. Other limitations include the assumption of equivalent efficacy across drugs in a category, incomplete data on adherence, and the fact that the analysis considers only initial sputum culture conversion, not reversion or long-term relapse. Conclusions MDR TB regimens including more potentially effective drugs than the minimum of five currently recommended by WHO may encourage improved response to treatment in patients with MDR TB. Rapid access to high-quality DST results could facilitate the design of more effective individualized regimens. Randomized controlled trials are necessary to confirm whether individualized regimens with more than five drugs can indeed achieve better cure rates than current recommended regimens.

Estimating the future burden of multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND Multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis are emerging worldwide. The Green Light Committee initiative supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis in 90 countries. We used estimates from the Preserving Effective TB Treatment Study to predict MDR and XDR tuberculosis trends in four countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis: India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. METHODS We calibrated a compartmental model to data from drug resistance surveys and WHO tuberculosis reports to forecast estimates of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis and the percentage of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis caused by acquired drug resistance, assuming no fitness cost of resistance from 2000 to 2040 in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. FINDINGS The model forecasted the percentage of MDR tuberculosis among incident cases of tuberculosis to increase, reaching 12·4% (95% prediction interval 9·4-16·2) in India, 8·9% (4·5-11·7) in the Philippines, 32·5% (27·0-35·8) in Russia, and 5·7% (3·0-7·6) in South Africa in 2040. It also predicted the percentage of XDR tuberculosis among incident MDR tuberculosis to increase, reaching 8·9% (95% prediction interval 5·1-12·9) in India, 9·0% (4·0-14·7) in the Philippines, 9·0% (4·8-14·2) in Russia, and 8·5% (2·5-14·7) in South Africa in 2040. Acquired drug resistance would cause less than 30% of incident MDR tuberculosis during 2000-40. Acquired drug resistance caused 80% of incident XDR tuberculosis in 2000, but this estimate would decrease to less than 50% by 2040. INTERPRETATION MDR and XDR tuberculosis were forecast to increase in all four countries despite improvements in acquired drug resistance shown by the Green Light Committee-supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Additional control efforts beyond improving acquired drug resistance rates are needed to stop the spread of MDR and XDR tuberculosis in countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis. FUNDING US Agency for International Development and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Tuberculosis Elimination.

Acquired Resistance to Second-Line Drugs Among Persons With Tuberculosis in the United States

BACKGROUND Acquired resistance to second-line drugs (SLDs) is a problem in treating patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis worldwide. The objectives of this study were to identify risk factors for acquired resistance (AR) to injectable SLDs (INJ SLDs) and fluoroquinolones in the US National tuberculosis Surveillance System, 1993-2008. METHODS We selected cases for which the initial and final drug susceptibility test (DST) results had been reported. We defined AR as resistance at the final DST but susceptibility to the same drug at the initial DST. We analyzed AR using 2-way frequency tables and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS The baseline prevalence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis was 12.6% (1864/14 770) and 0.38% (56/14 770), respectively. Of 2274 individuals without initial resistance to INJ SLDs, 49 (2.2%) acquired resistance. Of 1141 initially susceptible to fluoroquinolones, 32 (2.8%) acquired resistance. The AR to INJ SLDs was associated with age group 25-44 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-6.3), positive HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) status (aOR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.3-4.7), MDR at treatment initiation (aOR, 5.5; 95% CI, 2.9-10.5), and treatment with any SLD (aOR, 2.4; 95% CI,1.2-4.7). The AR to fluoroquinolones was associated with MDR tuberculosis at treatment initiation (aOR, 6.5; 95% CI, 2.9-14.6). CONCLUSIONS Among patients with initial and final DST reported, the risk factors for AR to INJ SLDs included age, positive HIV status, MDR tuberculosis and initial treatment with any SLD, while the only predictor for AR to fluoroquinolones was MDR tuberculosis at treatment initiation. Providers should consider monitoring SLD DST for MDR tuberculosis patients in the indicated subgroups.

The Burden of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Papua New Guinea: Results of a Large Population-Based Survey

Background Reliable estimates of the burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) are crucial for effective control and prevention of tuberculosis (TB). Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a high TB burden country with limited information on the magnitude of the MDR-TB problem. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted in four PNG provinces: Madang, Morobe, National Capital District and Western Province. Patient sputum samples were tested for rifampicin resistance by the Xpert MTB/RIF assay and those showing the presence of resistance underwent phenotypic susceptibility testing to first- and second-line anti-TB drugs including streptomycin, isoniazid, rifampicin, ethambutol, pyrazinamide, ofloxacin, amikacin, kanamycin and capreomycin. Results Among 1,182 TB patients enrolled in the study, MDR-TB was detected in 20 new (2.7%; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.1–4.3%) and 24 previously treated (19.1%; 95%CI: 8.5–29.8%) TB cases. No case of extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) was detected. Thirty percent (6/20) of new and 33.3% (8/24) of previously treated cases with MDR-TB were detected in a single cluster in Western Province. Conclusion In PNG the proportion of MDR-TB in new cases is slightly lower than the regional average of 4.4% (95%CI: 2.6–6.3%). A large proportion of MDR-TB cases were identified from a single hospital in Western Province, suggesting that the prevalence of MDR-TB across the country is heterogeneous. Future surveys should further explore this finding. The survey also helped strengthening the use of smear microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF testing as diagnostic tools for TB in the country.

Risk factors for acquisition of drug resistance during multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Russia, 2005-2010.

Resistance should be determined quickly, and treatment should contain at least 3 effective drugs.

Impact of rapid drug susceptibility testing for tuberculosis: program experience in Lima, Peru

SETTING Programmatic implementation of decentralized rapid drug susceptibility testing (DST) in Lima, Peru. OBJECTIVE Pre-post analysis compared time to diagnosis, treatment outcome and survival among patients tested with direct nitrate reductase assay (NRA) vs. indirect conventional methods. DESIGN From 2005 to 2009, we prospectively followed all patients referred for DST before (control) and after (intervention) NRA implementation. Among those referred for DST, NRA was used for smear-positive samples of patients with no prior history of multidrug resistance or treatment for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (TB). Data were abstracted from patient charts and laboratory registers. Endpoints were favorable outcomes, time to result and time to death. RESULTS Of those patients who met the criteria for NRA, 740 underwent NRA and 621 underwent conventional DST. NRA yielded test results for 78.4% of cases vs. 68.8% for conventional DST (P < 0.0001); the median time to result was 44 vs. 133 days, respectively (adjusted HR 0.64, 95%CI 0.56-0.73). Among individuals without previous anti-tuberculosis treatment, NRA was associated with a favorable treatment outcome (adjusted OR 1.39, 95%CI 1.01-1.90) and prolonged survival (adjusted HR 0.53, 95%CI 0.31-0.90). CONCLUSION Direct NRA significantly shortened time to test result and improved treatment outcomes and survival in certain groups.