Julia K. Steinberger

Global bioenergy potentials from agricultural land in 2050: Sensitivity to climate change, diets and yields

There is a growing recognition that the interrelations between agriculture, food, bioenergy, and climate change have to be better understood in order to derive more realistic estimates of future bioenergy potentials. This article estimates global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050, following a “food first” approach. It presents integrated food, livestock, agriculture, and bioenergy scenarios for the year 2050 based on a consistent representation of FAO projections of future agricultural development in a global biomass balance model. The model discerns 11 regions, 10 crop aggregates, 2 livestock aggregates, and 10 food aggregates. It incorporates detailed accounts of land use, global net primary production (NPP) and its human appropriation as well as socioeconomic biomass flow balances for the year 2000 that are modified according to a set of scenario assumptions to derive the biomass potential for 2050. We calculate the amount of biomass required to feed humans and livestock, considering losses between biomass supply and provision of final products. Based on this biomass balance as well as on global land-use data, we evaluate the potential to grow bioenergy crops and estimate the residue potentials from cropland (forestry is outside the scope of this study). We assess the sensitivity of the biomass potential to assumptions on diets, agricultural yields, cropland expansion and climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL to evaluate possible impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and elevated CO2 on agricultural yields. We find that the gross (primary) bioenergy potential ranges from 64 to 161 EJ y−1, depending on climate impact, yields and diet, while the dependency on cropland expansion is weak. We conclude that food requirements for a growing world population, in particular feed required for livestock, strongly influence bioenergy potentials, and that integrated approaches are needed to optimize food and bioenergy supply.

Precision Timing of Two Anomalous X-Ray Pulsars.

We report on long-term X-ray timing of two anomalous X-ray pulsars, 1RXS J170849.0-400910 and 1E 2259+586, using the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer. In monthly observations made over 1.4 and 2.6 yr for the two pulsars, respectively, we have obtained phase-coherent timing solutions which imply that these objects have been rotating with great stability throughout the course of our observations. For 1RXS J170849.0-400910, we find a rotation frequency of 0.0909169331(5) Hz and frequency derivative -15.687&parl0;4&parr0;x10-14 Hz s-1 for epoch MJD 51215.931. For 1E 2259+586, we find a rotation frequency of 0.1432880613(2) Hz and frequency derivative -1.0026&parl0;7&parr0;x10-14 Hz s-1 for epoch MJD 51195.583. The rms phase residuals from these simple models are only approximately 0.01 cycles for both sources. We show that the frequency derivative for 1E 2259+586 is inconsistent with that inferred from incoherent frequency observations made over the last 20 yr. Our observations are consistent with the magnetar hypothesis and make binary accretion scenarios appear unlikely.

LARGE ANGULAR SCALE POLARIZATION OF THE COSMIC MICROWAVE BACKGROUND RADIATION AND THE FEASIBILITY OF ITS DETECTION

In addition to its spectrum and temperature anisotropy, the 2.7 K cosmic microwave background (CMB) is also expected to exhibit a low level of polarization. The spatial power spectrum of the polar- ization can provide details about the formation of structure in the universe as well as its ionization history. Here we calculate the magnitude of the CMB polarization in various cosmological scenarios, with both an analytic and a numerical method. We then outline the fundamental challenges to measur- ing these signals and focus on two of them: achieving adequate sensitivity and removing contamination due to foreground sources. We describe the design of a ground-based instrument (Polarization Obser- vations of Large Angular Regions) that could detect polarization of the CMB at large angular scales in the next few years. Subject headings: cosmic microwave background E cosmology: theory E polarization

Urban Energy Systems

Executive Summary More than 50% of the global population already lives in urban settlements and urban areas are projected to absorb almost all the global population growth to 2050, amounting to some additional three billion people. Over the next decades the increase in rural population in many developing countries will be overshadowed by population flows to cities. Rural populations globally are expected to peak at a level of 3.5 billion people by around 2020 and decline thereafter, albeit with heterogeneous regional trends. This adds urgency in addressing rural energy access, but our common future will be predominantly urban. Most of urban growth will continue to occur in small-to medium-sized urban centers. Growth in these smaller cities poses serious policy challenges, especially in the developing world. In small cities, data and information to guide policy are largely absent, local resources to tackle development challenges are limited, and governance and institutional capacities are weak, requiring serious efforts in capacity building, novel applications of remote sensing, information, and decision support techniques, and new institutional partnerships. While ‘megacities’ with more than 10 million inhabitants have distinctive challenges, their contribution to global urban growth will remain comparatively small. Energy-wise, the world is already predominantly urban. This assessment estimates that between 60–80% of final energy use globally is urban, with a central estimate of 75%. Applying national energy (or GHG inventory) reporting formats to the urban scale and to urban administrative boundaries is often referred to as a ‘production’ accounting approach and underlies the above GEA estimate.

Material and Energy Productivity

Resource productivity, measured as GDP output per resource input, is a widespread sustainability indicator combining economic and environmental information. Resource productivity is ubiquitous, from the IPAT identity to the analysis of dematerialization trends and policy goals. High resource productivity is interpreted as the sign of a resource-efficient, and hence more sustainable, economy. Its inverse, resource intensity (resource per GDP) has the reverse behavior, with higher values indicating environmentally inefficient economies. In this study, we investigate the global systematic relationship between material, energy and carbon productivities, and economic activity. We demonstrate that different types of materials and energy exhibit fundamentally different behaviors, depending on their international income elasticities of consumption. Biomass is completely inelastic, whereas fossil fuels tend to scale proportionally with income. Total materials or energy, as aggregates, have intermediate behavior, depending on the share of fossil fuels and other elastic resources. We show that a small inelastic share is sufficient for the total resource productivity to be significantly correlated with income. Our analysis calls into question the interpretation of resource productivity as a sustainability indicator. We conclude with suggestions for potential alternatives.

Development and Dematerialization: An International Study

Economic development and growth depend on growing levels of resource use, and result in environmental impacts from large scale resource extraction and emissions of waste. In this study, we examine the resource dependency of economic activities over the past several decades for a set of countries comprising developing, emerging and mature industrialized economies. Rather than a single universal industrial development pathway, we find a diversity of economic dependencies on material use, made evident through cluster analysis. We conduct tests for relative and absolute decoupling of the economy from material use, and compare these with similar tests for decoupling from carbon emissions, both for single countries and country groupings using panel analysis. We show that, over the longer term, emerging and developing countries tend to have significantly larger material-economic coupling than mature industrialized economies (although this effect may be enhanced by trade patterns), but that the contrary is true for short-term coupling. Moreover, we demonstrate that absolute dematerialization limits economic growth rates, while the successful industrialization of developing countries inevitably requires a strong material component. Alternative development priorities are thus urgently needed both for mature and emerging economies: reducing absolute consumption levels for the former, and avoiding the trap of resource-intensive economic and human development for the latter.

Maintenance and Expansion: Modeling Material Stocks and Flows for Residential Buildings and Transportation Networks in the EU25

Summary Material stocks are an important part of the social metabolism. Owing to long service lifetimes of stocks, they not only shape resource flows during construction, but also during use, maintenance, and at the end of their useful lifetime. This makes them an important topic for sustainable development. In this work, a model of stocks and flows for nonmetallic minerals in residential buildings, roads, and railways in the EU25, from 2004 to 2009 is presented. The changing material composition of the stock is modeled using a typology of 72 residential buildings, four road and two railway types, throughout the EU25. This allows for estimating the amounts of materials in in‐use stocks of residential buildings and transportation networks, as well as input and output flows. We compare the magnitude of material demands for expansion versus those for maintenance of existing stock. Then, recycling potentials are quantitatively explored by comparing the magnitude of estimated input, waste, and recycling flows from 2004 to 2009 and in a business‐as‐usual scenario for 2020. Thereby, we assess the potential impacts of the European Waste Framework Directive, which strives for a significant increase in recycling. We find that in the EU25, consisting of highly industrialized countries, a large share of material inputs are directed at maintaining existing stocks. Proper management of existing transportation networks and residential buildings is therefore crucial for the future size of flows of nonmetallic minerals.

Transitions in pathways of human development and carbon emissions

Radical emissions reductions require a new perspective on plausible outcomes of low-carbon development achievement. A narrow focus on income measures of national progress may be difficult to reconcile with deep emissions reductions, but a broader scope, measuring real development, reveals opportunities for sustainable transitions. In this paper, I highlight 20 countries achieving above 70 years of life expectancy, yet lower than 1 ton of carbon emissions per capita (?Goldemberg?s Corner?). To explore their relevance for other nations, the underlying drivers of carbon emissions are estimated, and their cross-nationaldistribution quantified using cluster analysis. Unlike previous studies, trade-corrected consumption based carbon emissions are used to account for potential carbon leakage between nations. Five clusters of countries are identified with varying patterns of drivers and highly differentiated outcomes of life expectancy and carbon emissions. Four clusters intersect within Goldembergs Corner, suggesting diverse combinations of drivers may still lead to sustainable outcomes, presenting many countries with an opportunity to follow a pathway towards low-carbon human development. By contrast, within Goldemberg?s Corner,there are no countries from the core, wealthy consuming nations. The results reaffirm a need to address economic inequalities within international agreements for climate mitigation, but acknowledge plausible and accessible examples of low-carbon human development for countries that share similar underlying drivers of carbon emissions.

Managing Critical Materials with a Technology-Specific Stocks and Flows Model

The transition to low carbon infrastructure systems required to meet climate change mitigation targets will involve an unprecedented roll-out of technologies reliant upon materials not previously widespread in infrastructure. Many of these materials (including lithium and rare earth metals) are at risk of supply disruption. To ensure the future sustainability and resilience of infrastructure, circular economy policies must be crafted to manage these critical materials effectively. These policies can only be effective if supported by an understanding of the material demands of infrastructure transition and what reuse and recycling options are possible given the future availability of end-of-life stocks. This Article presents a novel, enhanced stocks and flows model for the dynamic assessment of material demands resulting from infrastructure transitions. By including a hierarchical, nested description of infrastructure technologies, their components, and the materials they contain, this model can be used to quantify the effectiveness of recovery at both a technology remanufacturing and reuse level and a material recycling level. The model’s potential is demonstrated on a case study on the roll-out of electric vehicles in the UK forecast by UK Department of Energy and Climate Change scenarios. The results suggest policy action should be taken to ensure Li-ion battery recycling infrastructure is in place by 2025 and NdFeB motor magnets should be designed for reuse. This could result in a reduction in primary demand for lithium of 40% and neodymium of 70%.

Conceptual framework for the study of food waste generation and prevention in the hospitality sector.

Food waste has significant detrimental economic, environmental and social impacts. The magnitude and complexity of the global food waste problem has brought it to the forefront of the environmental agenda; however, there has been little research on the patterns and drivers of food waste generation, especially outside the household. This is partially due to weaknesses in the methodological approaches used to understand such a complex problem. This paper proposes a novel conceptual framework to identify and explain the patterns and drivers of food waste generation in the hospitality sector, with the aim of identifying food waste prevention measures. This conceptual framework integrates data collection and analysis methods from ethnography and grounded theory, complemented with concepts and tools from industrial ecology for the analysis of quantitative data. A case study of food waste generation at a hotel restaurant in Malaysia is used as an example to illustrate how this conceptual framework can be applied. The conceptual framework links the biophysical and economic flows of food provisioning and waste generation, with the social and cultural practices associated with food preparation and consumption. The case study demonstrates that food waste is intrinsically linked to the way we provision and consume food, the material and socio-cultural context of food consumption and food waste generation. Food provisioning, food consumption and food waste generation should be studied together in order to fully understand how, where and most importantly why food waste is generated. This understanding will then enable to draw detailed, case specific food waste prevention plans addressing the material and socio-economic aspects of food waste generation.