Julian Cooper

Can Russia Compete in the Global Economy

A noted British economist and analyst of current developments in Russia investigates that countrys competitiveness in global merchandise export markets by seeking to determine its trade specialization and comparative advantage in a global context. In search of consistent trends, the author compares Russias scores in 2000 on the Balassa Index of Revealed Comparative Advantage with those of 2004, and also for that year with a selected list of international competitors (Brazil, India, China, Turkey, and the United States) as well. He then discusses recent (through June 2006) government efforts to stimulate export growth in sectors currently underrepresented in Russias trade profile and assesses prospects for improvement in the balance of Russias export profile. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E20, F14, F40. 7 tables, 20 references, 1 appendix.

North Atlantic Treaty Organisation

NATO is an alliance of sovereign nations. It was formed, and it is sustained today, as the basis for defending its member states against perceived threats to their security, independence and territorial integrity. Different political interpretations of NATO’s actual role tend to depend upon the perspective of the interpreter. Member governments see it as a defensive alliance for securing peace. The Warsaw Treaty nations see NATO as a threat, part of a hostile encirclement of the socialist commonwealth, and as a bastion of American imperialism.

The Military and Higher Education in the USSR

The military dimension of the Soviet higher-educational system is difficult to explore because of the striking scarcity of published evidence. There is a military presence at all universities and higher-educational institutes. It takes diverse forms, including special military departments and an elaborate system for the military-patriotic education of students. Research is undertaken for defense-related clients, although such research represents a modest share of the total military research and development effort. In general, the relationship with the military is harmonious, but this tradition of harmony, reflecting broader social attitudes toward the military in Soviet society, has come under strain in recent years as a result of changes in conscription policy. In the new conditions of glasnost, discontents have been able to find open expression and this may remain the pattern for the future.

The Russian economy twenty years after the end of the socialist economic system

It is now more than twenty years since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the beginning of transition to a market economy. The non-market, ‘planned’ economic system of the old order had its own specific mode of functioning, which over time had a profound impact on the structure of the economy. The article explores the extent to which the far-reaching economic transformation undertaken in post-communist Russia since the end of 1991 has overcome the legacies of the Soviet system. Has the socialist economic order that existed for over sixty years disappeared entirely, or are there still survivals and legacies that shape and influence, at least in part, the present-day Russian economy? These issues are examined by focussing on one particular sector that played a dominant role in the USSR, namely the defence industry and the military economy more generally. It is concluded that there are indeed significant survivals and legacies of the socialist past: market transformation is still incomplete.

The pendulum moves from Europe to Asia. Modernizing Siberia and the Far East. Economic and security issues

Under the current Presidency of Putin two main areas of concern are discernible: the modernization of defence industry and the accelerated development of Siberia and, in particular, the Far East. To a certain extent, development programmes prioritized within increasingly tight budget constraints overlap, since important sections of the defence industry are located beyond the Urals. In response to Chinas rapidly increasing economic and military strength, there is a need both to modernise infrastructure in order to boost trade opportunities eastward and to enhance and diversify industrial capabilities, a task in which the defence industry has a role to play. The article examines the policy and financial implications of the current shift eastwards. Resistance to policy changes is strong. Private investments will need strong encouragement while the role of the state needs to increase in the short-medium term. Nationalism and ideological inclinations add to a lively policy debate often marked by harsh tones. This major turn in strategy needs to entail a certain degree of decentralization as specific long-term projects are hardly manageable from Moscow. The existing structures are manifestly inadequate. While the need for a special authority endowed with the necessary powers for coordination and control of branch and territorial projects is discussed, the appropriate balance between the representation of regional interests and federal development plans is unclear. The article argues that more could be done to stimulate the regional powers to assume their own responsibility in selecting the most suitable projects consistent with federal priorities, offering good administrative services and, when necessary, tax incentives. While establishing nation-wide economic goals, federal government should be more receptive to local demands, while strengthening its command over security issues. Mutually supportive and respectful interaction between regional and federal bodies would improve the ability to assess in an informed way opportunities and constraints for growth and better discriminate among alternative projects on the basis of their respective outturn, feasibility and cost.

Soviet Military Has a Finger in Every Pie

Editors note: In recent months the military-oriented Soviet conversion process described in this article has undergone serious challenges. For example, Julian Cooper informed us shortly before we went to press that an alternative concept of conversion has been “prepared by a team of economists under Professor Yuri Yaremenko, director of the Academys Institute of the Economics and Forecasting of Scientific and Technical Progress. This challenge to the governments draft program calls for the complete conversion of many enterprises and of a market- oriented approach to the organizations of civil production. There is no doubt that this approach is more in line with the radical economic reform proposals now finding strong support.” Cooper noted that this and other developments “all point in the direction of a decisive radicalization of the conversion process.” Regardless of the outcome of the economic conversion debate, this article provides invaluable background about the issues involved.

The application of industrial robots in the Soviet engineering industry

Despite its scale and impressive rate of development the Soviet industrial robotics programme has received little attention in the West. In many respects the economic and social conditions for the application of industrial robots on a wide scale are favourable, but many problems are being experienced in securing their practical adoption and effective use. The paper reviews the Soviet robotics programme, the difficulties being encountered and the manner in which they are being tackled.

The struggle to save the Soviet economy: Mikhail Gorbachev and the collapse of the USSR

tunately, these innovations make ‘perpetual low-intensity war’ a foregone conclusion, Hippler writes, and the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan seem to prove his point. Hippler has written a provocative and lively argument that air power and air power theory drove the evolution of warfare throughout the twentieth century. He concludes by coming full circle, arguing that the contemporary use of drones is a logical extension of colonial police bombing. Agree or disagree, putting today’s drone use into historical context provokes thought. Those interested in the future of military technology and warfare must read and engage with this excellent book.

The Russian budgetary process and defence: finding the ‘golden mean’

Abstract In Russia the budgetary process for defence is broadly similar to that for other sectors but is characterised by a considerable degree of secrecy, limiting the role of parliament and any form of effective social control. The article examines the main actors and features of the defence budgetary process, the system of state secrecy, and explores the issue that generates the most conflict between the ministries of finance and defence, namely the long-term state armament programme.

Russia and the Global Financial-Economic Crisis

Of all the G-20 economies, the Russian Federation has been most seriously affected by the global financial–economic crisis that began gathering momentum at a rapid pace from the summer of 2008. In 2009, its gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 7.9 per cent, the largest fall of any G-20 country (International Monetary Fund, 2010). The only other G-20 country with a comparable GDP decline was Mexico, with a fall of 7.3 per cent. In the same year, the Chinese economy grew by 9.1 per cent and that of India by 5.7 per cent, whereas in Brazil output fell by 0.2 per cent. According to the International Monetary Fund’s forecast of July 2010, GDP in Russia will grow by 4.3 per cent in 2010 and 4.1 per cent in 2011. In 2009, Russia also had one of the highest rates of inflation of any G-20 country, with an annual average of 11.6 per cent, whereas many other economies experienced deflation or inflation of far less than 5 per cent (ibid).