Julian F Guest
University of Cambridge
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BMJ Open | 2015
Julian F Guest; Nadia Ayoub; Tracey McIlwraith; Ijeoma Uchegbu; Alyson Gerrish; Diana Weidlich; Kathryn Vowden; Peter Vowden
Objective To estimate the prevalence of wounds managed by the UKs National Health Service (NHS) in 2012/2013 and the annual levels of healthcare resource use attributable to their management and corresponding costs. Methods This was a retrospective cohort analysis of the records of patients in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) Database. Records of 1000 adult patients who had a wound in 2012/2013 (cases) were randomly selected and matched with 1000 patients with no history of a wound (controls). Patients’ characteristics, wound-related health outcomes and all healthcare resource use were quantified and the total NHS cost of patient management was estimated at 2013/2014 prices. Results Patients’ mean age was 69.0u2005years and 45% were male. 76% of patients presented with a new wound in the study year and 61% of wounds healed during the study year. Nutritional deficiency (OR 0.53; p<0.001) and diabetes (OR 0.65; p<0.001) were independent risk factors for non-healing. There were an estimated 2.2 million wounds managed by the NHS in 2012/2013. Annual levels of resource use attributable to managing these wounds and associated comorbidities included 18.6 million practice nurse visits, 10.9 million community nurse visits, 7.7 million GP visits and 3.4 million hospital outpatient visits. The annual NHS cost of managing these wounds and associated comorbidities was £5.3 billion. This was reduced to between £5.1 and £4.5 billion after adjusting for comorbidities. Conclusions Real world evidence highlights wound management is predominantly a nurse-led discipline. Approximately 30% of wounds lacked a differential diagnosis, indicative of practical difficulties experienced by non-specialist clinicians. Wounds impose a substantial health economic burden on the UKs NHS, comparable to that of managing obesity (£5.0 billion). Clinical and economic benefits could accrue from improved systems of care and an increased awareness of the impact that wounds impose on patients and the NHS.
Journal of Wound Care | 2015
Julian F Guest; Alyson Gerrish; Nadia Ayoub; Kath Vowden; Peter Vowden
OBJECTIVEnTo assess clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of using a two-layer cohesive compression bandage (TLCCB; Coban 2) compared with a two-layer compression system (TLCS; Ktwo) and a four-layer compression system (FLCS; Profore) in treating venous leg ulcers (VLUs) in clinical practice in the UK, from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS).nnnMETHODnThis was a retrospective analysis of the case records of VLU patients, randomly extracted from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database (a nationally representative database of clinical practice among patients registered with general practitioners in the UK), who were treated with either TLCCB (n=250), TLCS (n=250) or FLCS (n=175). Clinical outcomes and health-care resource use (and costs) over six months after starting treatment with each compression system were estimated. Differences in outcomes and resource use between treatments were adjusted for differences in baseline covariates.nnnRESULTSnPatients mean age was 75 years old and 57% were female. The mean time with a VLU was 6-7 months and the mean initial wound size was 77-85 cm2. The overall VLU healing rate, irrespective of bandage type, was 44% over the six months study period. In the TLCCB group, 51% of wounds had healed by six months compared with 40% (p=0.03) and 28% (p=0.001) in the TLCS and FLCS groups, respectively. The mean time to healing was 2.5 months. Patients in the TLCCB group experienced better health-related quality of life (HRQoL) over six months (0.374 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per patient), compared with the TLCS (0.368 QALYs per patient) and FLCS (0.353 QALYs per patient). The mean six-monthly NHS management cost was £2,413, £2,707 and £2,648 per patient in the TLCCB, TLCS and FLCS groups, respectively.nnnCONCLUSIONnDespite the systems studied reporting similar compression levels when tested in controlled studies, real-world evidence demonstrates that initiating treatment with TLCCB, compared with the other two compression systems, affords a more cost-effective use of NHS-funded resources in clinical practice, since it resulted in an increased healing rate, better HRQoL and a reduction in NHS management cost. The evidence also highlighted the lack of continuity between clinicians managing a wound, the inconsistent nature of the administered treatments and the lack of specialist involvement, all of which may impact on healing.nnnDECLARATION OF INTERESTnThis study was supported by an unrestricted research grant from 3M Health Care, UK. 3M Health Care had no influence on the study design, the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data, or on the writing of, and decision to submit for publication, the manuscript.
Journal of Wound Care | 2017
Julian F Guest; Kath Vowden; Peter Vowden
OBJECTIVEnTo estimate the patterns of care and related resource use attributable to managing acute and chronic wounds among a catchment population of a typical clinical commissioning group (CCG)/health board and corresponding National Health Service (NHS) costs in the UK.nnnMETHODnThis was a sub-analysis of a retrospective cohort analysis of the records of 2000 patients in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database. Patients characteristics, wound-related health outcomes and health-care resource use were quantified for an average CCG/health board with a catchment population of 250,000 adults ≥18 years of age, and the corresponding NHS cost of patient management was estimated at 2013/2014 prices.nnnRESULTSnAn average CCG/health board was estimated to be managing 11,200 wounds in 2012/2013. Of these, 40% were considered to be acute wounds, 48% chronic and 12% lacking any specific diagnosis. The prevalence of acute, chronic and unspecified wounds was estimated to be growing at the rate of 9%, 12% and 13% per annum respectively. Our analysis indicated that the current rate of wound healing must increase by an average of at least 1% per annum across all wound types in order to slow down the increasing prevalence. Otherwise, an average CCG/health board is predicted to manage ~23,200 wounds per annum by 2019/2020 and is predicted to spend a discounted (the process of determining the present value of a payment that is to be received in the future) £50 million on managing these wounds and associated comorbidities.nnnCONCLUSIONnReal-world evidence highlights the substantial burden that acute and chronic wounds impose on an average CCG/health board. Strategies are required to improve the accuracy of diagnosis and healing rates.
Transfusion | 2016
Diana Weidlich; Panos Kefalas; Julian F Guest
The objective was to estimate the incidence‐based costs of treating β‐thalassemia major (BTM) to the United Kingdoms National Health Service (NHS) over the first 50 years of a patients life in terms of healthcare resource use and corresponding costs and the associated health outcomes.
Health and Quality of Life Outcomes | 2015
Pedro Marques da Silva; Uwe Haag; Julian F Guest; John Brazier; M. Soro
BackgroundA post-hoc analysis was performed on the data from a 54xa0weeks phase III study (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00923091) to measure changes in the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of 2,690 patients aged ≥18 with moderate-to-severe hypertension who received one of six doses of olmesartan/amlodipine/hydrochlorothiazide (OLM/AML/HCTZ), using the MINICHAL and EQ-5D instruments.MethodsDescriptive statistics were used to assess blood pressure and HRQoL scores over the study period. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was used to identify those factors that could possibly have influenced HRQoL. Linear regression was used to assess the relationship between changes in blood pressure and HRQoL scores.ResultsPatients’ baseline MINICHAL mood and somatic domains scores were 5.5 and 2.6. Over the study period HRQoL improved as both MINICHAL scores decreased by 31-33%. Patients’ baseline EQ-5D index and VAS scores were 0.9 and 73.4 respectively, increasing by 6% and 12% over the study period. Patients’ QALY gain over the 54xa0weeks study period was estimated to be 0.029 QALYs. The ANCOVA showed that changes in patients’ HRQoL was likely to have been influenced by patients’ achievement of blood pressure control, the amount of concomitant medication and patients’ last used dosage strength of antihypertensive. Linear regression showed that blood pressure improvement may have been associated with improved HRQoL.ConclusionsThis study showed that OLM/AML/HCTZ reduced blood pressure and significantly increased blood pressure control whilst improving patients’ HRQoL. Achieving blood pressure control, amount of concomitant medication and dosage strength of antihypertensive impacted on patients’ HRQoL.
Health and Quality of Life Outcomes | 2014
Julian F Guest; Kam Nanuwa; Rob Barden
Background and aimsTo elicit utility values for five health states corresponding to increasing severity of hepatic encephalopathy, from members of the general public in the UK. The health states studied were Conn grades 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4.MethodsInterviewer-administered time trade-off (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) utilities were elicited for the five health states from a random sample of 200 members of the general public in the UK, using health state descriptions validated by clinicians and members of the general public.ResultsRespondents’ mean age was 49.5xa0years and 49% were female. Mean utilities were 0.962 (TTO) and 0.915 (SG) for Conn grade 0; 0.912 (TTO) and 0.837 (SG) for Conn grade 1; 0.828 (TTO) and 0.683 (SG) for Conn grade 2; 0.691 (TTO) and 0.489 (SG) for Conn grade 3; and 0.429 (TTO) and 0.215 (SG) for Conn grade 4. The TTO and SG values between the five Conn grades were significantly different (pu2009<u20090.001). Additionally, the TTO value was significantly higher than the SG value for the corresponding state (p <0.0001).ConclusionThese findings quantify how different Conn grades and level of response to treatment may impact on the health-related quality of life of patients with hepatic encephalopathy. There were greater preference values for lower levels of disease, with the highest value associated with Conn grade 0. These health state preference values can be used to estimate the outcomes of different interventions for hepatic encephalopathy in terms of quality-adjusted life years.
Journal of Wound Care | 2017
Julian F Guest; G.W. Fuller; Peter Vowden
OBJECTIVEnTo assess clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of using a two-layer cohesive compression bandage (TLCCB; Coban 2) compared with a two-layer compression system (TLCS; KTwo) and a four-layer compression system (FLCS; Profore) in treating newly-diagnosed venous leg ulcers (VLUs) in clinical practice in the UK, from the perspective of the NHS.nnnMETHODnThis was a retrospective cohort analysis of the case records of patients with newly-diagnosed VLUs randomly extracted from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database (a nationally representative database of clinical practice among patients registered with general practitioners in the UK) who were treated with either TLCCB (n=200), TLCS (n=200) or FLCS (n=200). The clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of the alternative compression systems were estimated over six months after starting treatment.nnnRESULTSnPatients mean age was 72 years and 58% were female. Time from wound onset to the start of compression was a mean of two months, and when starting compression the wound size was a mean of 45 cm2. The distribution of healing was significantly different between the three groups; 76% of wounds in the TLCCB group healed by six months compared with 70% and 64% in the TLCS and FLCS groups, respectively (p=0.006). Time to healing was significantly less in the TLCCB group compared with the two other groups (p=0.003). Patients in the TLCCB group experienced better health-related quality of life over six months (0.413 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per patient), compared with the TLCS and FLCS groups (0.404 and 0.396 QALYs per patient, respectively). The mean six-month NHS management cost was £3045, £3842 and £4480 per patient in the TLCCB, TLCS and FLCS groups, respectively.nnnCONCLUSIONnReal-world evidence demonstrates that treating newly-diagnosed VLUs with TLCCB, compared with the other two compression systems, affords a more cost-effective use of NHS-funded resources in clinical practice since it resulted in an increased healing rate, better health-related quality of life and a reduction in NHS management cost.
European Journal of Health Economics | 2017
Diana Weidlich; Fredrik Andersson; Matthias Oelke; Marcus J. Drake; Aino Jonasson; Julian F Guest
ObjectiveOur aim was to estimate the prevalence-based cost of illness imposed by nocturia (≥2 nocturnal voids per night) in Germany, Sweden, and the UK in an average year.MethodsInformation obtained from a systematic review of published literature and clinicians was used to construct an algorithm depicting the management of nocturia in these three countries. This enabled an estimation of (1) annual levels of healthcare resource use, (2) annual cost of healthcare resource use, and (3) annual societal cost arising from presenteeism and absenteeism attributable to nocturia in each country.ResultsIn an average year, there are an estimated 12.5, 1.2, and 8.6 million patients ≥20xa0years of age with nocturia in Germany, Sweden, and the UK, respectively. In an average year in each country, respectively, these patients were estimated toxa0have 13.8, 1.4, and 10.0 million visits to a family practitioner or specialist, ~91,000, 9000, and 63,000 hospital admissions attributable to nocturia and 216,000, 19,000, and 130,000 subjects were estimated to incur a fracture resulting from nocturia. The annual direct cost of healthcare resource use attributable to managing nocturia was estimated to be approximately €2.32 billion in Germany, 5.11 billion kr (€0.54 billion) in Sweden, and £1.35 billion (€1.77 billion) in the UK. The annual indirect societal cost arising from both presenteeism and absenteeism was estimated to be approximately €20.76 billion in Germany and 19.65 billion kr (€2.10 billion) in Sweden. In addition, in the UK, the annual indirect cost due to absenteeism was an estimated £4.32 billion (€5.64 billion).ConclusionsNocturia appears to impose a substantial socioeconomic burden in all three countries. Clinical and economic benefits could accrue from an increased awareness of the impact that nocturia imposes on patients, health services, and society as a whole.
International Wound Journal | 2015
Julian F Guest; Erikas Sladkevicius; Monica Panca
The objective of this study was to assess the cost‐effectiveness of Polyheal compared with surgery in treating chronic wounds with exposed bones and/or tendons (EB&T) due to trauma in France, Germany and the UK, from the perspective of the payers. Decision models were constructed depicting the management of chronic wounds with EB&T and spanned the period up to healing or up to 1 year. The models considered the decision by a plastic surgeon to treat these wounds with Polyheal or surgery and was used to estimate the relative cost‐effectiveness of Polyheal at 2010/2011 prices. Using Polyheal instead of surgery is expected to increase the probability of healing from 0·93 to 0·98 and lead to a total health‐care cost of €7984, €7517 and €8860 per patient in France, Germany and the UK, respectively. Management with surgery is expected to lead to a total health‐care cost of €12 300, €18 137 and €11 330 per patient in France, Germany and the UK, respectively. Hence, initial treatment with Polyheal instead of surgery is expected to lead to a 5% improvement in the probability of healing and a substantial decrease in health‐care costs of 35%, 59% and 22% in France, Germany and the UK, respectively. Within the models limitations, Polyheal potentially affords the public health‐care system in France, Germany and the UK a cost‐effective treatment for chronic wounds with EB&T due to trauma, when compared with surgery. However, this will be dependent on Polyheals healing rate in clinical practice when it becomes routinely available.
BMJ Open | 2018
Julian F Guest; Graham W Fuller; Peter Vowden; Kathryn Vowden
Objectives The aim of this study was to estimate the patterns of care and annual levels of healthcare resource use attributable to managing pressure ulcers (PUs) in clinical practice in the community by the UK’s National Health Service (NHS), and the associated costs of patient management. Methods This was a retrospective cohort analysis of the records of 209 patients identified within a randomly selected population of 6000 patients with any type of wound obtained from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) Database, who developed a PU in the community and excluded hospital-acquired PUs. Patients’ characteristics, wound-related health outcomes and healthcare resource use were quantified over 12 months from initial presentation, and the corresponding total NHS cost of patient management was estimated at 2015/2016 prices. Results 50% of all the PUs healed within 12 months from initial presentation, but this varied between 100% for category 1 ulcers and 21% for category 4 ulcers. The mean time to healing ranged from 1.0 month for a category 1 ulcer to 8 months for a category 3/4 ulcer and 10 months for an unstageable ulcer. Patients were predominantly managed in the community by nurses with minimal clinical involvement of specialist clinicians. Up to 53% of all the ulcers may have been clinically infected at the time of presentation, and 35% of patients subsequently developed a putative wound infection a mean 4.7 months after initial presentation. The mean NHS cost of wound care over 12 months ranged from £1400 for a category 1 ulcer to >£8500 for the other categories of ulcer. Additionally, the cost of managing an unhealed ulcer was 2.4 times more than that of managing a healed ulcer (mean of £5140 vs £12 300 per ulcer). Conclusion This study provides important insights into a number of aspects of PU management in clinical practice in the community that have been difficult to ascertain from other studies, and provides the best estimate available of NHS resource use and costs with which to inform policy and budgetary decisions.