Julian Leyland

Fluvial sediment supply to a mega-delta reduced by shifting tropical-cyclone activity

The world’s rivers deliver 19 billion tonnes of sediment to the coastal zone annually, with a considerable fraction being sequestered in large deltas, home to over 500 million people. Most (more than 70 per cent) large deltas are under threat from a combination of rising sea levels, ground surface subsidence and anthropogenic sediment trapping, and a sustainable supply of fluvial sediment is therefore critical to prevent deltas being ‘drowned’ by rising relative sea levels. Here we combine suspended sediment load data from the Mekong River with hydrological model simulations to isolate the role of tropical cyclones in transmitting suspended sediment to one of the world’s great deltas. We demonstrate that spatial variations in the Mekong’s suspended sediment load are correlated (r = 0.765, P < 0.1) with observed variations in tropical-cyclone climatology, and that a substantial portion (32 per cent) of the suspended sediment load reaching the delta is delivered by runoff generated by rainfall associated with tropical cyclones. Furthermore, we estimate that the suspended load to the delta has declined by 52.6 ± 10.2 megatonnes over recent years (1981–2005), of which 33.0 ± 7.1 megatonnes is due to a shift in tropical-cyclone climatology. Consequently, tropical cyclones have a key role in controlling the magnitude of, and variability in, transmission of suspended sediment to the coast. It is likely that anthropogenic sediment trapping in upstream reservoirs is a dominant factor in explaining past, and anticipating future, declines in suspended sediment loads reaching the world’s major deltas. However, our study shows that changes in tropical-cyclone climatology affect trends in fluvial suspended sediment loads and thus are also key to fully assessing the risk posed to vulnerable coastal systems.

A physically based model to predict hydraulic erosion of fine‐grained riverbanks: The role of form roughness in limiting erosion

Hydraulic erosion of bank toe materials is the dominant factor controlling the long-term rate of riverbank retreat. In principle, hydraulic bank erosion can be quantified using an excess shear stress model, but difficulties in estimating input parameters seriously inhibit the predictive accuracy of this approach. Herein a combination of analytical modeling and novel field measurement techniques is employed to improve the parameterization of an excess shear stress model as applied to the Lower Mekong River. Boundary shear stress is estimated using a model (Kean and Smith, 2006a, 2006b) for flow over the irregular bank topography that is characteristic of fine-grained riverbanks. Bank erodibility parameters were obtained using a cohesive strength meter (Tolhurst et al., 1999). The new model was used to estimate annual bank erosion rates via integration across the Mekongs annual flow regime. Importantly, the simulations represent the first predictions of hydraulic bank erosion that do not require recourse to calibration, thereby providing a stronger physical basis for the simulation of bank erosion. Model predictions, as evaluated by comparing simulated annual rates of bank toe retreat with estimates of bank retreat derived from analysis of aerial photographs and satellite imagery, indicate a tendency to overpredict erosion (root-mean-square error equals ±0.53 m/yr). Form roughness induced by bank topographic features is shown to be a major component (61%–85%) of the spatially averaged total shear stress, and as such it can be viewed as an important factor that self-limits bank erosion.

Estimating aerodynamic roughness over complex surface terrain

[1] Surface roughness plays a key role in determining aerodynamic roughness length (zo) and shear velocity, both of which are fundamental for determining wind erosion threshold and potential. While zo can be quantified from wind measurements, large proportions of wind erosion prone surfaces remain too remote for this to be a viable approach. Alternative approaches therefore seek to relate zo to morphological roughness metrics. However, dust-emitting landscapes typically consist of complex small-scale surface roughness patterns and few metrics exist for these surfaces which can be used to predictzofor modeling wind erosion potential. In this study terrestrial laser scanning was used to characterize the roughness of typical dust-emitting surfaces (playa and sandar) where element protrusion heights ranged from 1 to 199mm, over which vertical wind velocity profiles were collected to enable estimation of zo. Our data suggest that, although a reasonable relationship (R 2 >0.79) is apparent between 3-D roughness density and zo, the spacing of morphological elements is far less powerful in explaining variations in zo than metrics based on surface roughness height (R 2 >0.92). This finding is in juxtaposition to wind erosion models that assume the spacing of larger-scale isolated roughness elements is most important in determining zo. Rather, our data show that any metric based on element protrusion height has a higher likelihood of successfully predicting zo. This finding has important implications for the development of wind erosion and dust emission models that seek to predict the efficiency of aeolian processes in remote terrestrial and planetary environments.

Decoding the drivers of bank erosion on the Mekong river: The roles of the Asian monsoon, tropical storms, and snowmelt.

We evaluate links between climate and simulated river bank erosion for one of the worlds largest rivers, the Mekong. We employ a process-based model to reconstruct multidecadal time series of bank erosion at study sites within the Mekongs two main hydrological response zones, defining a new parameter, accumulated excess runoff (AER), pertinent to bank erosion. We employ a hydrological model to isolate how snowmelt, tropical storms and monsoon precipitation each contribute to AER and thus modeled bank erosion. Our results show that melt (23.9% at the upstream study site, declining to 11.1% downstream) and tropical cyclones (17.5% and 26.4% at the upstream and downstream sites, respectively) both force significant fractions of bank erosion on the Mekong. We also show (i) small, but significant, declines in AER and hence assumed bank erosion during the 20th century, and; (ii) that significant correlations exist between AER and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Of these modes of climate variability, we find that IOD events exert a greater control on simulated bank erosion than ENSO events; but the influences of both ENSO and IOD when averaged over several decades are found to be relatively weak. However, importantly, relationships between ENSO, IOD, and AER and hence inferred river bank erosion are not time invariant. Specifically, we show that there is an intense and prolonged epoch of strong coherence between ENSO and AER from the early 1980s to present, such that in recent decades derived Mekong River bank erosion has been more strongly affected by ENSO.

Extreme flood‐driven fluvial bank erosion and sediment loads: direct process measurements using integrated Mobile Laser Scanning (MLS) and hydro‐acoustic techniques.

ABSTRACT: This methods paper details the first attempt at monitoring bank erosion, flow and suspended sediment at a site during flooding on the Mekong River induced by the passage of tropical cyclones. We deployed integrated mobile laser scanning (MLS) and multibeam echo sounding (MBES), alongside acoustic Doppler current profiling (aDcp), to directly measure changes in river bank and bed at high (˜0.05 m) spatial resolution, in conjunction with measurements of flow and suspended sediment dynamics. We outline the methodological steps used to collect and process this complex point cloud data, and detail the procedures used to process and calibrate the aDcp flow and sediment flux data. A comparison with conventional remote sensing methods of estimating bank erosion, using aerial images and Landsat imagery, reveals that traditional techniques are error prone at the high temporal resolutions required to quantify the patterns and volumes of bank erosion induced by the passage of individual flood events. Our analysis reveals the importance of cyclone‐driven flood events in causing high rates of erosion and suspended sediment transport, with a c. twofold increase in bank erosion volumes and a fourfold increase in suspended sediment volumes in the cyclone‐affected wet season. Copyright

Modulation of outer bank erosion by slump blocks: Disentangling the protective and destructive role of failed material on the three‐dimensional flow structure

The three-dimensional flow field near the banks of alluvial channels is the primary factor controlling rates of bank erosion. Although submerged slump blocks and associated large-scale bank roughness elements have both previously been proposed to divert flow away from the bank, direct observations of the interaction between eroded bank material and the 3-D flow field are lacking. Here we use observations from multibeam echo sounding, terrestrial laser scanning, and acoustic Doppler current profiling to quantify, for the first time, the influence of submerged slump blocks on the near-bank flow field. In contrast to previous research emphasizing their influence on flow diversion away from the bank, we show that slump blocks may also deflect flow onto the bank, thereby increasing local shear stresses and rates of erosion. We use our measurements to propose a conceptual model for how submerged slump blocks interact with the flow field to modulate bank erosion.

The Southampton-York Natural Scenes (SYNS) dataset: statistics of surface attitude

Recovering 3D scenes from 2D images is an under-constrained task; optimal estimation depends upon knowledge of the underlying scene statistics. Here we introduce the Southampton-York Natural Scenes dataset (SYNS: https://syns.soton.ac.uk), which provides comprehensive scene statistics useful for understanding biological vision and for improving machine vision systems. In order to capture the diversity of environments that humans encounter, scenes were surveyed at random locations within 25 indoor and outdoor categories. Each survey includes (i) spherical LiDAR range data (ii) high-dynamic range spherical imagery and (iii) a panorama of stereo image pairs. We envisage many uses for the dataset and present one example: an analysis of surface attitude statistics, conditioned on scene category and viewing elevation. Surface normals were estimated using a novel adaptive scale selection algorithm. Across categories, surface attitude below the horizon is dominated by the ground plane (0° tilt). Near the horizon, probability density is elevated at 90°/270° tilt due to vertical surfaces (trees, walls). Above the horizon, probability density is elevated near 0° slant due to overhead structure such as ceilings and leaf canopies. These structural regularities represent potentially useful prior assumptions for human and machine observers, and may predict human biases in perceived surface attitude.

The influence of flow discharge variations on the morphodynamics of a diffluence-confluence unit on a large river

© 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Bifurcations are key geomorphological nodes in anabranching and braided fluvial channels, controlling local bed morphology, the routing of sediment and water, and ultimately defining the stability of their associated diffluence–confluence unit. Recently, numerical modelling of bifurcations has focused on the relationship between flow conditions and the partitioning of sediment between the bifurcate channels. Herein, we report on field observations spanning September 2013 to July 2014 of the three-dimensional flow structure, bed morphological change and partitioning of both flow discharge and suspended sediment through a large diffluence–confluence unit on the Mekong River, Cambodia, across a range of flow stages (from 13 500 to 27 000 m 3 s −1 ). Analysis of discharge and sediment load throughout the diffluence–confluence unit reveals that during the highest flows (Q = 27 000 m 3 s −1 ), the downstream island complex is a net sink of sediment (losing 2600 ± 2000 kg s −1 between the diffluence and confluence), whereas during the rising limb (Q = 19 500 m 3 s −1 ) and falling limb flows (Q = 13 500 m 3 s −1 ) the sediment balance is in quasi-equilibrium. We show that the discharge asymmetry of the bifurcation varies with discharge and highlight that the influence of upstream curvature-induced water surface slope and bed morphological change may be first-order controls on bifurcation configuration. Comparison of our field data to existing bifurcation stability diagrams reveals that during lower (rising and falling limb) flow the bifurcation may be classified as unstable, yet transitions to a stable condition at high flows. However, over the long term (1959–2013) aerial imagery reveals the diffluence–confluence unit to be fairly stable. We propose, therefore, that the long-term stability of the bifurcation, as well as the larger channel planform and morphology of the diffluence–confluence unit, may be controlled by the dominant sediment transport regime of the system.

Climate Change and Landslide Risk Assessment in Uttaradit Province, Thailand

The incidents of sudden landslides in Thailand during the past decade have occurred frequently and more severely. The rain-triggered landslide hazard analysis is the focus of this research. The combination of geotechnical and hydrological data is used to determine permeability, conductivity, bedding orientation, overburden and presence of loose blocks. The regional landslide hazard mapping is developed using the Slope Stability Index SINMAP model supported on Arc GIS software version 10.1. The geological data can indicate the shear strength and the angle of friction values for soils above given rock types, which leads to the general applicability of the approach for landslide hazard analysis. In terms of hydrological data, the millimetres/twenty-four hours of average rainfall data are used to assess the rain triggered landslide hazard analysis in slope stability mapping. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) version 4.2, is used to assess the simulation scenario of future change; the study area is Uttaradit province, northern Thailand. The landslide hazard mapping will be compared and shown by areas (km 2 ) for both present and future conditions under climate simulation scenarios A2 and B2 in Uttaradit province. The identified risk areas largely lie in hilly and mountainous terrain; which areas can be given additional protection during land use planning in order to reduce the risk of slope failure and the associated impacts on human activities.