Julian Lotz

Uncertainty in Product Modelling within the Development Process

This paper gives an overview about how to locate uncertainty in product modelling within the development process. Therefore, the process of product modelling is systematized with the help of characteristics of product models and typical working steps to develop a product model. Based on that, it is possible to distinguish between product modelling uncertainty, mathematic modelling uncertainty, parameter uncertainty, simulation uncertainty and product model uncertainty.

Uncertainty Scaling – Motivation, Method and Example Application to Aload Carrying Structure

Scaling methods allow the estimation of the impact of changes in individual parameters on system performance. In the technical context, physical similarity is the focus. This paper demonstrates the extension of scaling methods to include uncertainty scaling. The advantages of using scaling uncertainty for the development of scaled products and the contribution of extended scaling methods to the analysis and assessment of uncertainty are illustrated. Uncertainty scaling based on dimensional analysis and complete similarity is derived. The potential of this method is demonstrated using a load carrying structure - a buckling beam.