Julián Ramajo

A spatio-temporal econometric model of regional growth in Spain

In this paper, a combined cross-section and time-series econometric analysis of Spanish regional growth is presented. This analysis operates with a database where the number of cross-sectional units is small for a typical panel of data, while the time dimension is clearly dominant. First, using recent techniques in the econometric analysis of panel data (both panel unit root and panel co-integration tests), a co-integrating relationship between the level of regional output and the level of regional input factors is found, and the steady-state equilibrium production function is estimated. Second, a dynamic spatio-temporal panel error correction model is used in order to describe the short-run regional growth adjustment process in space and time. As conclusion, it is possible to identify significant spatial effects in the Spanish regional growth after controlling for temporal variation of the implied variables.

Dynamic effects within a regional system: an empirical approach

In this paper we focus on the dynamic effects under which the regional economic growth processes are accomplished, breaking them down into two broad types: neighborhood and economy-wide effects. By means of a proposed dynamic space–time empirical model, the competition structure within a multiregional economic system is developed. Cointegration and error-correction modeling techniques are used to support the existence of this competition structure over both the short and long term. As an application, we show the dynamic effects on the evolution of the regional performance of Spanish regions over the period 1972–2000. Our results indicate that some macroeconomic forces are operating through time on this Spanish system because positive and negative effects are detected both at economy-wide and at neighborhood levels. Further, the findings show that a new taxonomy of the Spanish regions could provide some guidance for the development of appropriate measures for regional economic policy.

Budget deficit and interest rates: empirical evidence for Spain

Evidence, whether international or national, of the significance of the links between budget deficits and interest rates, is in general terms inconclusive. The aim of the present work is to contribute new findings for the Spanish economy using annual data for the period 1964–2000. It is found that budget deficits did not appear to raise long-run nominal interest rates during our sample period.

Curvature Restrictions on Flexible Functional Forms: An Application of the Minflex Laurent Almost Ideal Demand System to the Pattern of Spanish Demand, 1954-1987

This article introduces a new demand model labeled Minflex Laurent almost ideal demand system, which has been achieved by combining the flexible functional Minflex Laurent form with the price-independent generalized logarithm expenditures structure introduced by Muellbauer. The model has been applied to analyze the aggregate demand behavior of final consumer goods in the Spanish economy from 1954 to 1987. When the flexible functional form has been empirically tested, the curvature requirements imposed by economic theory have been studied.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Regional Systems

This article contributes to the recent literature in spatial econometrics that focuses on space–time data modeling implementing a multilocation time-series statistical framework to analyze a regional system. Drawing on the global vector autoregression approach introduced in Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner, a multiregional spatial vector autoregressive (MultiREG-SpVAR) model is formulated and then applied to study the spatiotemporal transmission of macroeconomic shocks across the regions in Spain. The empirical application analyzes the extent to which a region’s economic output growth is influenced by the growth of its neighbors (push-in or inward growth effect), and also investigates the relevance of spillovers derived from temporary region specific output growth shocks (push-out or outward growth effect). Our results identify some regions that perform as “growth generators” within the Spanish regional system since growth shocks from these regions spillover to a large number of regions of the country, playing a key role in the transmission of regional business cycles. The policy implications of our results suggest that national and/or regional governments should stimulate economic activity in these leading regions in order to enhance the economic recovery process of the whole Spanish economy.

Explaining aggregate private saving behaviour: new evidence from a panel of OECD countries

This study analyses some of the empirical determinants of aggregate private saving rates for a panel of 21 OECD countries over the period 1964 to 2001. Among the fiscal determinants considered, there is evidence of an important trade-off between public and private saving and a negative effect of higher current public expenditure on private saving. Among the macroeconomic and financial variables introduced, the income growth rate is the most significant and has a positive effect on private saving. Finally, only a demographic variable, the urbanization rate, has a positive effect on private saving. Interestingly, the sub-sample formed by the G-7 countries shows substantial qualitative and quantitative differences in the determinants of aggregate private saving, particularly a reduction of the effects of the fiscal policy variables.

European Regional Efficiency and Geographical Externalities: A Spatial Nonparametric Frontier Analysis

This paper analyses region-level technical efficiency in nine European countries over the 1995–2007 period. We propose the application of a nonparametric conditional frontier approach to account for the presence of heterogeneous conditions in the form of geographical externalities. Such environmental factors are beyond the control of regional authorities, but may affect the production function. Therefore, they need to be considered in the frontier estimation. Specifically, a spatial autoregressive term is included as an external conditioning factor in a robust order-m model. Thus we can test the hypothesis of non-separability (the external factor impacts both the input–output space and the distribution of efficiencies), demonstrating the existence of significant global interregional spillovers into the production process. Our findings show that geographical externalities affect both the frontier level and the probability of being more or less efficient. Specifically, the results support the fact that the spatial lag variable has an inverted U-shaped non-linear impact on the performance of regions. This finding can be interpreted as a differential effect of interregional spillovers depending on the size of the neighboring economies: positive externalities for small values, possibly related to agglomeration economies, and negative externalities for high values, indicating the possibility of production congestion. Additionally, evidence of the existence of a strong geographic pattern of European regional efficiency is reported and the levels of technical efficiency are acknowledged to have converged during the period under analysis.

Time-varying effects of fiscal policy in Spain: a Markov-switching approach

ABSTRACT How have the effects of Spanish fiscal policy varied over time? Given this starting point, in this article we analyse the regime dependence of fiscal policy in Spain by estimating a vector autoregressive model within a Markov-switching framework. Our results indicate that Spain’s membership of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is the most likely source of time variation in the fiscal outcomes. Accordingly, increases in the primary deficit-to-GDP ratio do not succeed in stimulating economic activity in the first regime; rather, unexpected upsurges in the primary deficit harm economic activity (non-Keynesian effect) in the second regime, which prevails since the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty.

Assessing Regional Economic Performance: Regional Competition in Spain Under a Spatial Vector Autoregressive Approach

After a wave of empirical literature on regional competition focused on issues related to regional convergence, work developed recently has tried to address some of the shortcomings of the previous literature, developing a series of alternative approaches that center their attention on the assessment of regional economic performance. These alternative methodologies embrace a complex set of space-time interactions that take into account that a single region’s economic performance affects and is affected by other regions. In this context, and as an original contribution of this chapter, a spatial vector autoregressive (SpVAR) model for the Spanish regions during the period 1955 –2009 is presented. The SpVAR model considers spatial as well temporal lags of the variables. The estimated SpVAR is used to calculate impulse responses that provide insights about the effects of shocks to relative regional productive capacity on different regions. The empirical results suggest that the existence of trade linkages have had different significant impacts on the production shares of the 17 Spanish regions, but competition between regional economies prevails.

Purchasing power parity revisited: evidence from old and new tests for an organisation for economic co-operation and development panel

The objective of this article is to study long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for a panel of 21 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from the end of the Bretton Woods era by applying a wide range of the econometric techniques available. This will allow us to present a comprehensive up to date examination of the empirical validity of PPP, covering the weak and strong versions of the hypothesis with individual and panel analysis, including the absence or presence of cross-dependency, the linear or nonlinear behaviour of the real exchange rates and the degree of persistence. Overall, the results provide evidence in favour of PPP.