Julie A. Winkler

Faculty Reappointment, Tenure, and Promotion: Barriers for Women

Women faculty continue to experience academe differently than male faculty. A review of recent literature indicates that womens representation on university faculties has advanced slowly; women are less likely to be tenured or promoted compared to male faculty; and women faculty earn less than their male colleagues. A recurring theme is that the intellectual and social isolation of women faculty affects their research productivity. Gender stereotypes held by colleagues, departmental and college administrators, and students also contribute to the difficulties women face in the reappointment, tenure, and promotion process. A personal perspective on the reappointment process is provided in order to illustrate how isolation and naïvete regarding the social structure of academe can affect a womans career advancement. The benefits of greater representation of women on university faculties are reviewed, and departmental and college administrators are reminded of the important role they play in ensuring future gender-balanced faculties.

The Simulation of Daily Temperature Time Series from GCM Output. Part II: Sensitivity Analysis of an Empirical Transfer Function Methodology

Abstract Empirical transfer functions have been proposed as a means for “downscaling” simulations from general circulation models (GCMs) to the local scale. However, subjective decisions made during the development of these functions may influence the ensuing climate scenarios. This research evaluated the sensitivity of a selected empirical transfer function methodology to 1) the definition of the seasons for which separate specification equations are derived, 2) adjustments for known departures of the GCM simulations of the predictor variables from observations, 3) the length of the calibration period, 4) the choice of function form, and 5) the choice of predictor variables. A modified version of the Climatological Projection by Model Statistics method was employed to generate control (1 × CO2) and perturbed (2 × CO2) scenarios of daily maximum and minimum temperature for two locations with diverse climates (Alcantarilla, Spain, and Eau Claire, Michigan). The GCM simulations used in the scenario developm...

The Practitioner's Dilemma: How to Assess the Credibility of Downscaled Climate Projections

Suppose you are a city planner, regional water manager, or wildlife conservation specialist who is asked to include the potential impacts of climate variability and change in your risk management and planning efforts. What climate information would you use? The choice is often regional or local climate projections downscaled from global climate models (GCMs; also known as general circulation models) to include detail at spatial and temporal scales that align with those of the decision problem. A few years ago this information was hard to come by. Now there is Web-based access to a proliferation of high-resolution climate projections derived with differing downscaling methods.

A long-term climatology of southerly and northerly low-level jets for the central United States

A forty-year (1961–2000) climatology of southerly and northerly low-level jets (LLJs) was prepared from twice-daily rawinsonde observations for thirty-six stations in the central United States. Although there is extensive literature on southerly jets, their spatial variability has received little attention. Furthermore, there is a paucity of studies examining any aspects of northerly LLJs. Thus, the motivation for developing the climatology was to (1) examine in greater detail the spatial variation of LLJ characteristics across the central United States, (2) better document the nature of northerly LLJs, (3) provide a baseline for evaluating potential future changes in LLJ frequency and characteristics, and (4) assess through comparisons with previous studies what aspects of LLJs in the central United States remain poorly understood. The climatology is a substantial temporal and spatial expansion of previous studies and provides a more thorough description of the spatial variability of LLJs in terms of frequency, direction, speed, and elevation at annual, seasonal, and daily time scales. The complex spatial variations of LLJ characteristics in the central United States are summarized by seven objectively defined regions within the central United States with similar jet characteristics. These regions (Central Plains, Upper Midwest, East Central, Southeast, South Texas/Western Gulf, Foothills, and High Plains) vary in shape and extent by season and are indicative of the varying influence of different forcing mechanisms for LLJ formation. Comparison of the findings of this study with those of previous climatological analyses suggests that many of the characteristics of LLJs in the central United States are still incompletely documented and understood.

The Potential Impact of Regional Climate Change on Fire Weather in the United States

Climate change is expected to alter the frequency and severity of atmospheric conditions conducive for wildfires. In this study, we assess potential changes in fire weather conditions for the contiguous United States using the Haines Index (HI), a fire weather index that has been employed operationally to detect atmospheric conditions favorable for large and erratic fire behavior. The index summarizes lower atmosphere stability and dryness into an integer value with higher values indicting more fire-prone conditions. We use simulations produced by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) from multiple regional climate models (RCMs) driven by multiple general circulation models (GCMs) to examine changes by midcentury in the seasonal percentage of days and the consecutive number of days with high (values ≥ 5) HI across the United States. Despite differences among the six RCM–GCM combinations in the magnitude and location of the projected changes, the results consistently suggest an increase in the number of days with high HI values over most of the United States during the summer season, with the dryness factor of the HI contributing more than the stability parameter to the projected changes. In addition, the consecutive number of days with high HI is projected to increase in summer. Together, these results suggest that future summers might be more conducive to large and dangerous fires. The projections for other seasons are inconsistent among the model combinations.

Climatological and statistical characteristics of the Haines Index for North America

The Haines Index is an operational tool for evaluating the potential contribution of dry, unstable air to the development of large or erratic plume-dominated wildfires. The index has three variants related to surface elevation, and is calculated from temperature and humidity measurements at atmospheric pressure levels. To effectively use the Haines Index, fire forecasters and managers must be aware of the climatological and statistical characteristics of the index for their location. However, a detailed, long-term, and spatially extensive analysis of the index does not currently exist. To meet this need, a 40-year (1961–2000) climatology of the Haines Index was developed for North America. The climatology is based on gridded (2.5° latitude × 2.5° longitude) temperature and humidity fields from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The climatology illustrates the large spatial variability in the Haines Index both within and between regions using the different index variants. These spatial variations point to the limitations of the index and must be taken into account when using the Haines Index operationally.

Old Methodological Sneakers: Fashion and Function in a Cross-Training Era

Chorley, R.J. 1978. Bases for Theory in Geomorphology. In Geomorphology: Present Problems and Future Prospects, ed. C. Embleton, D. Brunsden, and D.K.C. Jones. pp. 1–13. Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press. Marcus, M.G.; Olson, J.M.; and Abler, R.F. 1992. Humanism and Science in Geography. In Geography’s Inner Worlds: Pervasive Themes in Contemporary American Geography, ed. R.F. Abler, M.G. Marcus, and J.M. Olson. 1992. pp. 326–41. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press. Pickles, J., and Watts, M.J. 1992. Paradigms for Inquiry? In Geography’s Inner Worlds: Pervasive Themes in Contemporary American Geography, ed. R.F. Abler, M.G. Marcus, and J.M. Olson, pp. 302–26. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press. Rediscovering Geography Committee, National Research Council. 1997. Rediscovering Geography: New Relevance for Science and Society. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. Rhoads, B.L., and Thorn, C.E., eds. 1996. The Scientific Nature of Geomorphology. Chichester, U.K.: John Wiley & Sons. Old Methodological Sneakers 679

Possible Impacts of Projected Temperature Change on Commercial Fruit Production in the Great Lakes Region

Abstract Commercial fruit production is a primary revenue source for many locations within the Great Lakes region. Projected climate change may have a profound impact on this highly climate sensitive activity, which owes its existence to the moderating influence of the Great Lakes. Downscaled daily maximum and minimum temperature series provided by the U.S. National Assessment were utilized to evaluate 1) possible changes in the frequency and timing of several agronomically-relevant temperature threshold events and 2) potential interactions between crop phenology and a commercially-important insect pest ( Cydia pomonella (L.)). The analyses are for the two future decades of 2025 to 2034 and 2090 to 2099. The assessments for 2025 to 2034 suggest that fruit-growing areas in the Great Lakes region will experience a moderate increase in growing season length and seasonal heat accumulation and a decrease in the frequency of freezing temperatures. In addition, important growth stages will occur earlier in the calendar year than at present. Very large changes in the temperature threshold parameters are projected for 2090 to 2099. However, it is unclear for both assessment decades whether fruit production will be more or less susceptible to damage from cold temperatures after critical growth stages are reached. Projected warming may also result in increases in the number of generations per season of a primary insect pest and the number of necessary pesticide applications.

Salaries and Advancement of Women Faculty in Atmospheric Science: Some Reasons for Concern

Abstract Zevin and Seitters analyses of the 1993 American Meteorological Society membership survey indicated that university/college employees had the largest difference in salary by gender when controlling for experience and age. Further analyses of the membership survey presented here indicate that a large salary discrepancy exists for female full professors in atmospheric science. In addition, the small number of women at the associate professor rank suggests a “leaky pipeline” for female atmospheric science faculty. A comparison of tenure-stream faculty to Ph.D.-level atmospheric scientists outside of academia suggests that female Ph.D.s have fared better in nonuniversity positions in terms of senior-level salaries and advancement from entry- to midlevel positions. Possible explanations for the salary differential at the full professor level and for the small number of female associate professors in atmospheric science are explored, although no conclusive explanation can he given at this time. Possi...

Computing the Low-Elevation Variant of the Haines Index for Fire Weather Forecasts

The Haines index is used in wildfire forecasting and monitoring to evaluate the potential contributions of atmospheric stability and humidity to the behavior of plume-dominated wildfires. The index has three variants (“low,” “mid,” and “high”) that accommodate differences in surface elevation. As originally formulated, the low variant is calculated from temperature observations at the 950- and 850-hPa levels and humidity observations at 850 hPa. In the early 1990s the National Weather Service implemented a new mandatory level for radiosonde observations at 925 hPa. Following this change, measurements at 950 hPa became less frequent. An informal survey of several forecast offices found no formalized adjustment to the calculation of the low Haines index to take into account the nonavailability of 950-hPa measurements. Some sources continue to use 950-hPa temperature, usually interpolated from 925-hPa and surface temperatures, to calculate the low Haines index. Others directly substitute the 925-hPa temperature for the originally specified 950-hPa value. This study employs soundings from the central United States when both 950- and 925-hPa levels were available to investigate the impact of different calculation approaches on the resulting values of the low variant of the Haines index. Results show that direct substitution of 925-hPa temperature for the 950-hPa temperature can dramatically underestimate the potential wildfire severity compared with the original formulation of the Haines index. On the other hand, a low-elevation variant of the Haines index calculated from the interpolated 950-hPa temperature is usually in close agreement with the original formulation of the index.