Julie D. Rosati

Development of a Regional Neural Network for Coastal Water Level Predictions

Abstract This paper presents the development of a Regional Neural Network for Water Level (RNN_WL) predictions, with an application to the coastal inlets along the South Shore of Long Island, New York. Long-term water level data at coastal inlets are important for studying coastal hydrodynamics sediment transport. However, it is quite common that long-term water level observations may be not available, due to the high cost of field data monitoring. Fortunately, the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has a national network of water level monitoring stations distributed in regional scale that has been operating for several decades. Therefore, it is valuable and cost effective for a coastal engineering study to establish the relationship between water levels at a local station and a NOAA station in the region. Due to the changes of phase and amplitude of water levels over the regional coastal line, it is often difficult to obtain good linear regression relationship between water levels from two different stations. Using neural network offers an effective approach to correlate the non-linear input and output of water levels by recognizing the historic patterns between them. In this study, the RNN_WL model was developed to enable coastal engineers to predict long-term water levels in a coastal inlet, based on the input of data in a remote NOAA station in the region. The RNN_WL model was developed using a feed-forwards, back-propagation neural network structure with an optimized training algorithm. The RNN_WL model can be trained and verified using two independent data sets of hourly water levels. The RNN_WL model was tested in an application to Long Island South Shore. Located about 60–100 km away from the inlets there are two permanent long-term water level stations, which have been operated by NOAA since the1940s. The neural network model was trained using hourly data over a one-month period and validated for another one-month period. The model was then tested over year-long periods. Results indicate that, despite significant changes in the amplitudes and phases of the water levels over the regional study area, the RNN_WL model provides very good long-term predictions of both tidal and non-tidal water levels at the regional coastal inlets. In order to examine the effects of distance on the RNN_WL model performance, the model was also tested using water levels from other remote NOAA stations located at longer distances, which range from 234 km to 591 km away from the local station at the inlets. The satisfactory results indicate that the RNN_WL model is able to supplement long-term historical water level data at the coastal inlets based on the available data at remote NOAA stations in the coastal region.

Concepts in Sediment Budgets

Abstract The sediment budget is fundamental in coastal science and engineering. Budgets allow estimates to be made of the volume or volume rate of sediment entering and exiting a defined region of the coast and the surplus or deficit remaining in that region. Sediment budgets have been regularly employed with variations in approaches to determine the sources and sinks through application of the primary conservation of mass equation. Historically, sediment budgets have been constructed and displayed on paper or maps. Challenges in constructing a sediment budget include determining the appropriate boundaries of the budget and interior cells; defining the possible range of sediment transport pathways, and the relative magnitude of each; representing the uncertainty associated with values and assumptions in the budget; and testing the sensitivity of the series of budgets to variations in the unknown and temporally-changing values. These challenges are usually addressed by representing a series of budget alternatives that are ultimately drawn on paper, maps, or graphs. Applications of the methodology include detailed local-scale sediment budgets, such as for an inlet or beach fill project, and large-scale sediment budgets for the region surrounding the study area. The local-scale budget has calculation cells representing features on the order of 10s to 100s of meters, and it must be shown separately from the regional sediment budget, with cells ranging from 100s of meters to kilometers. This paper reviews commonly applied sediment budget concepts and introduces new considerations intended to make the sediment budget process more reliable, streamlined, and understandable. The need for both local and regional sediment budgets is discussed, and the utility of combining, or collapsing, cells is shown to be beneficial for local budgets within a regional system. Collapsing all cells within the budget creates a “macrobudget,” which can be applied to check for overall balance of values. An automated means of changing the magnitude of terms, while maintaining the same dependency on other values within the sediment budget, is presented. Finally, the need for and method of tracking uncertainty within the sediment budget, and a means for conducting sensitivity analyses, are discussed. These new concepts are demonstrated within the Sediment Budget Analysis System with an application for Long Island, New York, and Ocean City Inlet, Maryland.

Geomorphologic Evolution of Barrier Islands along the Northern U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Implications for Engineering Design in Barrier Restoration

Abstract Aspects of northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) (Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida panhandle) processes and barrier islands that are pertinent to their geomorphologic response are contrasted with the broader knowledge base summarized by Schwartz (1973) and Leatherman (1979, 1985). Salient findings from studies documenting the short-term (storm-induced; timescales of hours, days, and weeks) and long-term (timescales of years, decades, and centuries) response of barrier island systems in the NGOM are synthesized into a conceptual model. The conceptual model illustrates the hypothetical evolution of three barrier island morphologies as they evolve through a typical Category 1–2 hurricane, including poststorm recovery (days to weeks) and long-term evolution (years to decades). Primary factors in barrier island geomorphologic response to storms, regardless of location, are the elevation of the island relative to storm (surge plus setup) elevation, and duration of the storm. Unique aspects of the NGOM barrier islands, compared with knowledge summarized for other barrier types, include (1) storm paths, wind speed, and large bays that create the potential for both Gulf and bayshore erosion and (2) in Louisiana and Mississippi, the potential for loading of the underlying substrate by the barrier island, which, through time, increases consolidation, relative sea level rise, overwash, morphologic change, and migration. We recommend that design of large-scale beach restoration projects incorporate the potential for (1) time-dependent consolidation of the underlying sediment due to project loading and future migration, (2) Gulf and bayshore erosion and overwash, and (3) eolian transport toward the Gulf from north winds.

TOWARD AN IMPROVED EMPIRICAL FORMULA FOR LONGSHORE SAND TRANSPORT

The Labrador Sea Extreme Waves Experiment (LEWEX), is an international basic research programme concerned with full-scale measurements, analysis, modelling and simulation in test basins of 3-dimensional seas. The research is carried out in order to assess the significance of 3-dimensional sea states in engineering applications. The first phase of the programme full scale wave measurements in the North Atlantic Ocean was performed at a site and time that had a high probability of encountering severe sea states. The present publication shows examples of measured bi-modal directional sea spectra obtained with the WAVESCAN buoy and directional sea spectra measured with an airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). Directional spectra of gravity waves are obtained with the SAR both in open waters and below an ice cover. Further work is needed in order to verify SAR-measurements with in-situ observations. In-situ measured directional spectra are also compared with hindcast spectra from the 3G-WAM model. Hindcast significant wave heights were found to be lower than the in-situ measurements.The littoral drift model developed at DHI and ISVA, see Deigaard et al. (1986b) has been extended to include the effects of the irregularity of the waves, of a coastal current and a wind acting on the surf zone. Further, a mathematical model to simulate the near-shore current pattern along a barred coast with rip channels has been developed. The influence on the littoral drift of the irregularity of waves, wind, coastal current, and rip channels is discussed. It is concluded that irregularity of waves and presence of rip channels must be considered while coastal current and wind action are of minor importance.At present, the Prodhoe Bay oil field in Alaska contributes a substantial amount of the domestic oil production of the United States. Oil is also expected to be present on the continental shelf of Alaska, and it is estimated that approximatedly 28 percent of the total U. S. reserve is located beneath the shallow ice covered seas of the Alaskan continental shelf. To expolre and to exploit these oil rich resources, engineers are confronted with hostile oceanographic conditions such as high tides, waves, strong currents and sea ice. The same area is also rich in fishery resources. Being one of the most productive fishing grounds in the nothern Pacific, the potential ecological impact due to an oil spill is of a major concern. This paper describes the methologies used for the development of a modeling system for the oil risk analysis. The system is designed with generality in mind so it can be used for other coastal areas. The development of three dimensional models used in the modeling system described here have been published in the earlier International Coastal Engineering Conferences (Liu and Leendertse, 1982, 1984, 1986) and a report published recently by RAND (Liu and Leendertse, 1987). In the oil-spill risk analysis, these three dimensional hydrodynamic models are coupled to a two-dimensional stochastic weather model and an oil weathering model.The two projects (LUBIATOWO 79 and LUBIATOWO 86) were aimed at study pore pressure behaviour in natural sand bed in the coastal zone of the Baltic sea under the action of storm waves. During both projects, the wave induced pore pressures at the various levels in the sea bed were measured. The collected data were used to verify the applicability of the various theoretical approaches. In the conclusion, the range of the application of the particular analytical method is given.The rapid recession of the shingle bank of Hurst Beach (up to 3.5m/yr) makes it an excellent natural laboratory for the study of the factors which influence the stability of shingle beaches. Studies have included: the significance of long period, high energy, swell waves the classification and quantification of overwash processes run-up and seepage characteristics the effect of settlement of the underlying strata and the implications for practices in shingle nourishment. The studies have revealed the distinctive character of shingle beaches as compared with the more fully researched sand beaches. More detailed research on shingle beaches is justified particularly in relation to (i) the run-up characteristics including its interaction with swash cusps and (ii) the influence of the subsidiary sand fraction on the beach characteristics.Environmental assessment, engineering studies and designs were completed for a new 26.5 m3/s seawater intake system in the Persian Gulf. The original intake facility consisted of a curved, 60m breakwater with one end attached to the shoreline, a settling basin immediately adjacent to the shoreline and dredged to a maximum depth of approximately 5m, and a pumphouse structure located on shore such that the seaward wall formed one side of the settling basin. The facility located on an island in the Gulf, which served multiple seawater uses, had experienced both structural and operational problems, the latter consisting principally of excessive ingestion of sediment and seaweed. These factors plus the requirement for additional demands for seawater beyond plant capacity caused the owner to initiate a study of alternative intake systems, produce a design for the most effective solution and construct the new intake system.A two-dimensional wave prediction model suitable for use on personal computers is described. The model requires the twodimensional time-dependent wind field as input. Output consists of wave height, wave period, and wave direction estimates at all grid points on a computational grid representing an enclosed or semi-closed basin. Model predictions compare favorably with observations from a wave research tower in Lake Erie. A formula is provided to estimate how long a model simulation would take on a personal computer given the surface area of the computational domain, the grid size, and the computer clock speed.Cullera Bay is a neritic ecosystem placed on the Spanish Mediterranean Littoral largely influenced by the Jucar River, that brings about lower salinities than surrounding waters, and broad variations of its values. An extensive research, with 9 samplings throughout the year, was carried out, measuring both physical and chemical parameters, and the planktonic communities. The trophic status of the ecosystem, the spatial and temporal variations of the nutrients and the planktonic communities were studied, evaluating the influence of the river loads and the littoral dynamics. Some essential basis to allow a suitable emplacement of waste waters disposals along the Valencian littoral are set up in order to minimize the gradual eutrophication of this coast.In the last two years a whole of studies was realized in order to determine precise solutions to the regeneration of Villajoyosas beach, in the Spanish mediterranean coast. Investigations were carried out to the surrounding coastal areas based in field investigations and laboratory analyses of the beaches materials.

Historical Sediment Transport Pathways and Quantities for Determining an Operational Sediment Budget: Mississippi Sound Barrier Islands

ABSTRACT Byrnes, M.R.; Rosati, J.D.; Griffee, S.F., and Berlinghoff, J.L., 2013. Historical sediment transport pathways and quantities for determining an operational sediment budget: Mississippi Sound barrier islands. In: Brock, J.C.; Barras, J.A., and Williams, S.J. (eds.), Understanding and Predicting Change in the Coastal Ecosystems of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 63, pp. 166–183, Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Historical shoreline and bathymetric survey data were compiled for the barrier islands and passes fronting Mississippi Sound to identify net littoral sand transport pathways, quantify the magnitude of net sand transport, and develop an operational sediment budget spanning a 90-year period. Net littoral sand transport along the islands and passes is primarily unidirectional (east-to-west). Beach erosion along the east side of each island and sand spit deposition to the west result in an average sand flux of about 400,000 cy/yr (305,000 m3/yr) throughout the barrier island system. Dog Keys Pass, located updrift of East Ship Island, is the only inlet acting as a net sediment sink. It also is the widest pass in the system (about 10 km) and has two active channels and ebb shoals. As such, a deficit of sand exists along East Ship Island. Littoral sand transport decreases rapidly along West Ship Island, where exchange of sand between islands terminates because of wave sheltering from the Chandeleur Islands and shoals at the eastern margin of the St. Bernard delta complex, Louisiana. These data were used to assist with design of a large island restoration project along Ship Island, Mississippi.

Lack of Evidence for Onshore Sediment Transport from Deep Water at Decadal Time Scales: Fire Island, New York

Abstract Fire Island, New York, is a 50-kilometer-long barrier island that has remained positionally stable without any formation of breach inlets for nearly 200 years. Some researchers have attributed its stability to a major supply of sand moving onshore from relatively deep water (i.e., >10 m depths). Others have demonstrated via sediment budgets that the principal sand sources at decadal to century time scales are littoral sediments derived from eroding beaches, bluffs, and cannibalization of inlet shoals in shallower depths (i.e., ≤10 m). Published sediment budgets indicate that the quantity in question is of the order 105 m3/yr. The possibility that this deep-water source of sand is significant, active, and persistent at decadal to century time scales has led to reluctance to mine deep-water shoals for beach nourishment of Fire Island. Herein, the authors review five factors related to the potential for a significant deep-water sand source in this setting: (1) spatial and temporal frames of reference necessary for this flux of sand; (2) studies of scour and sediment transport over offshore features; (3) sediment size distribution across the foreshore; (4) depth of closure (DOC); and (5) contribution of abandoned inlet shoals. The authors conclude that evidence for an onshore flux of sediment (i.e., order of 105 m3/yr) is lacking and suggest that reluctance to mine the offshore for beach nourishment is unfounded.

Guidance for Developing Coastal Vulnerability Metrics

ABSTRACT Wamsley, T.V.; Collier, Z.A.; Brodie, K.; Dunkin, L.M.; Raff, D., and Rosati, J.D., 2015. Guidance for developing coastal vulnerability metrics. Appropriate coastal zone management and storm-damage risk reduction requires the assessment of vulnerability in natural and human environments. Confusion arises, however, as vulnerability is conceptualized in many different ways and is closely related to other concepts such as risk and resilience. This paper defines nomenclature, presents a conceptual definition of vulnerability, and lays out a proposed conceptual approach for identifying and defining meaningful metrics to ensure a complete assessment of coastal vulnerability. While the focus of this paper is developing metrics for assessing vulnerability to coastal storms, the approach is valid for a wide range of systems and hazards at multiple scales and can explicitly consider the impacts of climate change. The approach is demonstrated through application to a simply coupled human-environment system on the coast and explicitly considers natural and nature-based features.

CRITICAL WIDTH OF BARRIER ISLANDS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ENGINEERING DESIGN

The critical width of a barrier island is defined as the smallest cross-shore dimension that minimizes net loss of sediment from the island over periods from decades to centuries. This concept is of importance for large-scale restoration of barrier islands which involves rebuilding these islands to a specified geometry. Within constraints of coastal forcing and geologic and regional characteristics at the site, islands having critical width will capture deposition of washover sediment onto the subaerial beach over the project lifetime. This study reviews previous investigations of barrier island critical width and applies a newly-developed model of barrier island migration, consolidation, and overwash to assist engineering design.

Sediment Budget: Mississippi Sound Barrier Islands

Abstract : Historical shoreline and bathymetric survey data were compiled for the barrier islands and passes fronting Mississippi Sound to develop a regional sediment budget spanning a 90-year period. Net littoral sand transport along the islands and passes is primarily unidirectional (east-to-west). Beach erosion along the east side of each island and sand spit deposition to the west result in an average sand flux of about 430,000 cy/yr throughout the barrier island system. Dog Keys Pass, located updrift of East Ship Island, is the only inlet that is a net sediment sink. It also is the widest pass in the system and has two active channels and ebb shoals. As such, a deficit of sand exists along East Ship Island. Littoral sand transport decreases rapidly on West Ship Island, where exchange of sand between islands terminates because of wave sheltering from shoals and islands of the old St. Bernard delta complex, Louisiana.

Evolution of a Swash Zone Berm Nourishment and Influence of Berm Elevation on the Performance of Beach-Nearshore Nourishments along Perdido Key, Florida, USA

ABSTRACT Brutsché, K.E.; Wang, P.; Rosati, J.D., and Beck, T.M., 2015. Evolution of a swash zone berm nourishment and influence of berm elevation on the performance of beach-nearshore nourishments along Perdido Key, Florida, USA. A nourishment was placed within the swash zone along eastern Perdido Key, Florida, in 2011–2012 using maintenance-dredged material from nearby Pensacola Pass, referred to here as a “swash zone berm nourishment.” The study area was divided into three sections, the swash zone berm project and two adjacent areas to the west and east, and was monitored with time series beach surveys. The performance of the 2011–2012 nourishment with a constructed berm elevation of +0.91m North American Vertical Datum 1988 (NAVD88) was compared with two previous nourishments in 1985 and 1989–1991, with +3.0 m NAVD88 and +1.2 m NAVD88 elevations, respectively. The low elevation for the 2011–2012 nourishment allowed natural overwash processes to occur frequently, which resulted in net onshore sediment transport and growth of the active berm. The swash zone berm evolved back to the natural equilibrium profile shape maintained in the study area within 8 months. The high–wave energy conditions associated with the passages of Tropical Storm Debby and Hurricane Isaac accelerated the equilibrium process. Sediment volume gain west of the project area due to longshore spreading of the nourishment occurred mostly in the trough between the shoreline and the bar, rather than on the dry beach. In terms of rate of shoreline retreat, the short 1.2-km 1985 nourishment performed the poorest with a rate of 40 m/y. The long 7.3-km 1989–1991 nourishment performed the best with a retreat rate of 11 m/y. This suggests that high berm elevations do not necessarily lead to better nourishment performance. Instead, longshore extent of a nourishment may dominate project performance. Furthermore, the very high nourishment density of 1550 m3/m did not improve nourishment longevity.