Julie Dusserre

Positive effects of climate change on rice in Madagascar

Food security in many countries is threatened due to rapid population growth. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide, rainfall irregularity, and global warming may have serious consequences on rice production and hence food security. However, there is limited knowledge on the precise effects of global warming on crops, in particular on rice which is a major staple crop and contributor to food security. Most reports have focused on irrigated rice in India or China but much less is known about rainfed rice cropping systems in Madagascar. In the Malagasy highlands, the most populated part of Madagascar, land pressure has led to saturation of irrigated lands and the adoption of rainfed cropping systems on hilltops. The present article reports the impact of various climate changes on rice productivity in four cropping systems using the CERES-Rice model. The cropping systems include two tillages components, hand-plowed and no-tillage, and two fertilization rates: low and high nitrogen. A locally adapted rice cultivar was calibrated and validated using a dataset based on experiments conducted over a 6-year period. Daily weather data were generated for a set of 90 virtual years, from 2010 to 2099. Our results show that no-tillage systems have no advantage for climate change issues. Nitrogen was a major constraint for crops in hand-plowed and no-tillage systems. We found negative effects of climate change on soil carbon and nitrogen. By contrast, we found positive effects of temperature and increased CO2 on rice growth. The overall effects on rice yields are positive under the most pessimistic climate change scenarios but we demonstrate that the sustainability of these systems is threatened.

Crop-model assisted phenomics and genome-wide association study for climate adaptation of indica rice. 2. Thermal stress and spikelet sterility

Low night and high day temperatures during sensitive reproductive stages cause spikelet sterility in rice. Phenotyping of tolerance traits in the field is difficult because of temporal interactions with phenology and organ temperature differing from ambient. Physiological models can be used to separate these effects. A 203-accession indica rice diversity panel was phenotyped for sterility in ten environments in Senegal and Madagascar and climate data were recorded. Here we report on sterility responses while a companion study reported on phenology. The objectives were to improve the RIDEV model of rice thermal sterility, to estimate response traits by fitting model parameters, and to link the response traits to genomic regions through genome-wide association studies (GWAS). RIDEV captured 64% of variation of sterility when cold acclimation during vegetative stage was simulated, but only 38% when it was not. The RIDEV parameters gave more and stronger quantitative trait loci (QTLs) than index variables derived more directly from observation. The 15 QTLs identified at P<1 × 10-5 (33 at P<1 × 10-4) were related to sterility effects of heat, cold, cold acclimation, or unexplained causes (baseline sterility). Nine annotated genes were found on average within the 50% linkage disequilibrium (LD) region. Among them, one to five plausible candidate genes per QTL were identified based on known expression profiles (organ, stage, stress factors) and function. Meiosis-, development- and flowering-related genes were frequent, as well a stress signaling kinases and transcription factors. Putative epigenetic factors such as DNA methylases or histone-related genes were frequent in cold-acclimation QTLs, and positive-effect alleles were frequent in cold-tolerant highland rice from Madagascar. The results indicate that epigenetic control of acclimation may be important in indica rice genotypes adapted to cool environments.

Crop-model assisted phenomics and genome-wide association study for climate adaptation of indica rice. 1. Phenology

Phenology and time of flowering are crucial determinants of rice adaptation to climate variation. A previous study characterized flowering responses of 203 diverse indica rices (the ORYTAGE panel) to ten environments in Senegal (six sowing dates) and Madagascar (two years and two altitudes) under irrigation in the field. This study used the physiological phenology model RIDEV V2 to heuristically estimate component traits of flowering such as cardinal temperatures (base temperature (Tbase) and optimum temperature), basic vegetative phase, photoperiod sensitivity and cold acclimation, and to conduct a genome-wide association study for these traits using 16 232 anonymous single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The RIDEV model after genotypic parameter optimization explained 96% of variation in time to flowering for Senegal alone and 91% for Senegal and Madagascar combined. The latter was improved to 94% by including an acclimation parameter reducing Tbase when the crop experienced low temperatures during early vegetative development. Eighteen significant (P<1.0 × 10-5) quantitative trait loci (QTLs) were identified, namely ten for RIDEV parameters and eight for climatic index variables (difference in time to flowering between key environments). Co-localization of QTLs for different traits were rare. RIDEV parameters gave QTLs that were mostly more significant and distinct from QTLs for index variables. Candidate genes were investigated within the estimated 50% linkage disequilibrium regions of 39 kB. In addition to several known flowering network genes, they included genes related to thermal stress adaptation and epigenetic control mechanisms. The peak SNP for a QTL for the crop parameter Tbase (P=2.0 × 10-7) was located within HD3a, a florigen that was recently identified as implicated in flowering under cool conditions.