Julie Hoggarth

Integrating Quantitative Lidar Analysis and Settlement Survey in the Belize River Valley

Abstract Accurate and high-resolution airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) data have become increasingly important for the discovery and visualization of complete archaeological settlement systems in the Maya Lowlands. We present the results of systematic quantitative analysis of lidar data and ground verification for the major centers of Cahal Pech, Baking Pot, and Lower Dover in the Belize Valley. The Belize Valley is characterized by high density populations living in growing modern towns and villages, and by large-scale agricultural production. This urban environment presents a challenge to reconnaissance efforts since modern construction and agricultural activities have destroyed ancient ruins and created new vegetation patterns. Lidar data was analyzed within a GIS using the Topographic Position Index (TPI) to identify the location of possible archaeological remains. Small-scale, site-level TPI analysis helped identify more detailed archaeological features including small house mounds, terraces, and ditches. Results indicate that lidar data recorded for areas with dense vegetation (e.g., low brush and secondary regrowth) may be less reliable for identification of archaeological remains. The quantitative and qualitative differences between spatial analyses and pedestrian survey results among land cover types indicate that traditional settlement pattern study methods, including pedestrian survey, remain vital to ground-truthing all types of spatial data.

Drought and Its Demographic Effects in the Maya Lowlands

Increasing evidence supports the role of climate change in the disintegration of regional polities in the Maya lowlands at the end of the Classic Period (750–1000 CE). However, the demographic effects of drought remain largely unknown in the absence of Classic Period textual evidence indicating declines in agricultural productivity and population over this broad geographic area. To understand the relationship between climate change and demography, we compare historic records from the Colonial Period (1519–1821 CE) with a subannually resolved climate record for the region. We propose that multiyear droughts across the lowlands resulted in crop failure and severe famines that correlate with intervals of high mortality and migration within two extended dry intervals during the eighteenth century. Changes in population during the Colonial Period support Malthusian models of demography that may be used to conceptualize population dynamics at the end of the Classic Period.