Julie R. Etterson

Forecasting the Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity

ABSTRACT The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. In this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche-theory models that group species by habitat (more specifically, by environmental conditions under which a species can persist or does persist), (3) general circulation models and coupled ocean–atmosphere–biosphere models, and (4) species–area curve models that consider all species or large aggregates of species. After outlining the different uses and limitations of these methods, we make eight primary suggestions for improving forecasts. We find that greater use of the fossil record and of modern genetic studies would improve forecasting methods. We note a Quaternary conundrum: While current empirical and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions also point to constructive synergies in the solution to the different problems.

Transgenerational Plasticity Is Adaptive in the Wild

Plants exhibit adaptive responses to light, but it is not known whether parental plants transmit environmental cues that elicit adaptive responses in offspring. We show that offspring life history (annual versus biennial) is influenced by the maternal light environment (understory versus light gap). This transgenerational plasticity is adaptive when offspring are grown in their maternal light environment, where seeds typically disperse. Projections of population growth show that plants that are appropriately cued for their light environment through maternal effects have 3.4 times greater fitness than otherwise. Transgenerational plasticity has evolved in response to natural variation in light and provides a flexible mechanism by which sedentary organisms cope with heterogeneous environments.

Multidimensional evaluation of managed relocation

Managed relocation (MR) has rapidly emerged as a potential intervention strategy in the toolbox of biodiversity management under climate change. Previous authors have suggested that MR (also referred to as assisted colonization, assisted migration, or assisted translocation) could be a last-alternative option after interrogating a linear decision tree. We argue that numerous interacting and value-laden considerations demand a more inclusive strategy for evaluating MR. The pace of modern climate change demands decision making with imperfect information, and tools that elucidate this uncertainty and integrate scientific information and social values are urgently needed. We present a heuristic tool that incorporates both ecological and social criteria in a multidimensional decision-making framework. For visualization purposes, we collapse these criteria into 4 classes that can be depicted in graphical 2-D space. This framework offers a pragmatic approach for summarizing key dimensions of MR: capturing uncertainty in the evaluation criteria, creating transparency in the evaluation process, and recognizing the inherent tradeoffs that different stakeholders bring to evaluation of MR and its alternatives.

EVOLUTIONARY POTENTIAL OF CHAMAECRISTA FASCICULATA IN RELATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE. I. CLINAL PATTERNS OF SELECTION ALONG AN ENVIRONMENTAL GRADIENT IN THE GREAT PLAINS

Abstract Climate change will alter natural selection on native plant populations. Little information is available to predict how selection will change in the future and how populations will respond. Insight can be obtained by comparing selection regimes in current environments to selection regimes in environments similar to those predicted for the future. To mimic predicted temporal change in climate, three natural populations of the annual legume Chamaecrista fasciculata were sampled from a climate gradient in the Great Plains and progeny of formal crosses were reciprocally planted back into common gardens across this climate gradient. In each garden, native populations produced significantly more seed than the other populations, providing strong evidence of local adaptation. Phenotypic selection analysis conducted by site showed that plants with slower reproductive development, more leaves, and thicker leaves were favored in the most southern garden. Evidence of clinal variation in selection regimes was also found; selection coefficients were ordered according to the latitude of the common gardens. The adaptive value of native traits was indicated by selection toward the mean of local populations. Repeated clinal patterns in linear and nonlinear selection coefficients among populations and within and between sites were found. To the extent that temporal change in climate into the future will parallel the differences in selection across this spatial gradient, this study suggests that selection regimes will be displaced northward and different trait values will be favored in natural populations.

Rapid climate change and the rate of adaptation: insight from experimental quantitative genetics

Evolution proceeds unceasingly in all biological populations. It is clear that climate-driven evolution has molded plants in deep time and within extant populations. However, it is less certain whether adaptive evolution can proceed sufficiently rapidly to maintain the fitness and demographic stability of populations subjected to exceptionally rapid contemporary climate change. Here, we consider this question, drawing on current evidence on the rate of plant range shifts and the potential for an adaptive evolutionary response. We emphasize advances in understanding based on theoretical studies that model interacting evolutionary processes, and we provide an overview of quantitative genetic approaches that can parameterize these models to provide more meaningful predictions of the dynamic interplay between genetics, demography and evolution. We outline further research that can clarify both the adaptive potential of plant populations as climate continues to change and the role played by ongoing adaptation in their persistence.

Managed Relocation: Integrating the Scientific, Regulatory, and Ethical Challenges

Managed relocation is defined as the movement of species, populations, or genotypes to places outside the areas of their historical distributions to maintain biological diversity or ecosystem functioning with changing climate. It has been claimed that a major extinction event is under way and that climate change is increasing its severity. Projections indicating that climate change may drive substantial losses of biodiversity have compelled some scientists to suggest that traditional management strategies are insufficient. The managed relocation of species is a controversial management response to climate change. The published literature has emphasized biological concerns over difficult ethical, legal, and policy issues. Furthermore, ongoing managed relocation actions lack scientific and societal engagement. Our interdisciplinary team considered ethics, law, policy, ecology, and natural resources management in order to identify the key issues of managed relocation relevant for developing sound policies that support decisions for resource management. We recommend that government agencies develop and adopt best practices for managed relocation.

Rapid climate change and the rate of adaptation

Evolution proceeds unceasingly in all biological populations. It is clear that climate-driven evolution has molded plants in deep time and within extant populations. However, it is less certain whether adaptive evolution can proceed sufficiently rapidly to maintain the fitness and demographic stability of populations subjected to exceptionally rapid contemporary climate change. Here, we consider this question, drawing on current evidence on the rate of plant range shifts and the potential for an adaptive evolutionary response. We emphasize advances in understanding based on theoretical studies that model interacting evolutionary processes, and we provide an overview of quantitative genetic approaches that can parameterize these models to provide more meaningful predictions of the dynamic interplay between genetics, demography and evolution. We outline further research that can clarify both the adaptive potential of plant populations as climate continues to change and the role played by ongoing adaptation in their persistence.

Evolutionary potential of Chamaecrista fasciculata in relation to climate change. Ii. Genetic architecture of three populations reciprocally planted along an environmental gradient in the great plains

Abstract Climate change will test the evolutionary potential of populations. Information regarding the genetic architecture within and among populations is essential for prediction of evolutionary outcomes. However, little is known about the distribution of genetic variation for relevant traits in natural populations or alteration of genetic architecture in a changing environment. In this study, pedigreed families from three populations of the annual prairie legume Chamaecrista fasciculata were reciprocally transplanted in three environments across a broad latitudinal range in the Great Plains. The underlying premise of this work is that northern populations will in the future experience climates similar to current‐day climates further south. Estimates of narrow‐sense heritability ranged from 0.053 to 0.481, suggesting the potential for evolutionary change is possible for most traits. In general, the northern population harbored less genetic variation and had lower heritability for traits than the southern population. This population also experienced large reductions in fitness, as measured by estimated lifetime fecundity, when raised in either the intermediate or the southern climate, whereas the difference between the intermediate and southern population was less extreme. For fecundity, the pattern of cross‐environment additive genetic correlations was antagonistic to evolutionary change in four of six cases when native and nonnative sites were compared. Six additional antagonistic positive correlations were found for the rate of phenological development and leaf thickness. Overall, the data suggest that if climate changes as predicted, the northern population will face a severe evolutionary challenge in the future because of low heritabilities, cross‐environment genetic correlations antagonistic to selection, and demographic instability due to lower seed production in a hotter and drier climate.

The Resurrection Initiative: Storing Ancestral Genotypes to Capture Evolution in Action

ABSTRACT In rare circumstances, scientists have been able to revive dormant propagules from ancestral populations and rear them with their descendants to make inferences about evolutionary responses to environmental change. Although this is a powerful approach to directly assess microevolution, it has previously depended entirely upon fortuitous conditions to preserve ancestral material. We propose a coordinated effort to collect, preserve, and archive genetic materials today for future studies of evolutionary change—a “resurrection paradigm.” The availability of ancestral material that is systematically collected and intentionally stored using best practices will greatly expand our ability to illuminate microevolutionary patterns and processes and to predict ongoing responses of species to global change. In the workshop “Project Baseline,” evolutionary biologists and seed storage experts met to discuss establishing a coordinated effort to implement the resurrection paradigm.

EPISTATIC AND CYTONUCLEAR INTERACTIONS GOVERN OUTBREEDING DEPRESSION IN THE AUTOTETRAPLOID CAMPANULASTRUM AMERICANUM

Abstract The consequences of combining divergent genomes among populations of a diploid species often involve F1 hybrid vigor followed by hybrid breakdown in later recombinant generations. As many as 70% of plant species are thought to have polyploid origins; yet little is known about the genetic architecture of divergence in polyploids and how it may differ from diploid species. We investigated the genetic architecture of population divergence using controlled crosses among five populations of the autotetraploid herb, Campanulastrum americanum. Plants were reciprocally hybridized to produce F1, F2, and F1-backcross generations that were grown with parental types in a greenhouse and measured for performance. In contrast to diploid expectations, most F1 hybrids lacked heterosis and instead showed strong outbreeding depression for early life traits. Recombinant hybrid generations often showed a recovery of performance to levels approximating, or at times even exceeding, the parental values. This pattern was also evident for an index of cumulative fitness. Analyses of line means indicated nonadditive gene action, especially forms of digenic epistasis, often influenced hybrid performance. However, standard diploid genetic models were not adequate for describing the underlying genetic architecture in a number of cases. Differences between reciprocal hybrids indicated that cytoplasmic and/or cytonuclear interactions also contributed to divergence. An enhanced role of epistasis in population differentiation may be the norm in polyploids, which have more gene copies. This study, the first of its kind on a natural autotetraploid, suggests that gene duplication may cause polyploid populations to diverge in a fundamentally different way than diploids.