Julie Vercelloni

Predator crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster planci) outbreak, mass mortality of corals, and cascading effects on reef fish and benthic communities

Outbreaks of the coral-killing seastar Acanthaster planci are intense disturbances that can decimate coral reefs. These events consist of the emergence of large swarms of the predatory seastar that feed on reef-building corals, often leading to widespread devastation of coral populations. While cyclic occurrences of such outbreaks are reported from many tropical reefs throughout the Indo-Pacific, their causes are hotly debated, and the spatio-temporal dynamics of the outbreaks and impacts to reef communities remain unclear. Based on observations of a recent event around the island of Moorea, French Polynesia, we show that Acanthaster outbreaks are methodic, slow-paced, and diffusive biological disturbances. Acanthaster outbreaks on insular reef systems like Mooreas appear to originate from restricted areas confined to the ocean-exposed base of reefs. Elevated Acanthaster densities then progressively spread to adjacent and shallower locations by migrations of seastars in aggregative waves that eventually affect the entire reef system. The directional migration across reefs appears to be a search for prey as reef portions affected by dense seastar aggregations are rapidly depleted of living corals and subsequently left behind. Coral decline on impacted reefs occurs by the sequential consumption of species in the order of Acanthaster feeding preferences. Acanthaster outbreaks thus result in predictable alteration of the coral community structure. The outbreak we report here is among the most intense and devastating ever reported. Using a hierarchical, multi-scale approach, we also show how sessile benthic communities and resident coral-feeding fish assemblages were subsequently affected by the decline of corals. By elucidating the processes involved in an Acanthaster outbreak, our study contributes to comprehending this widespread disturbance and should thus benefit targeted management actions for coral reef ecosystems.

Evidence of social communities in a spatially structured network of a free-ranging shark species

Large, solitary, marine predators such as sharks have been observed to aggregate at specific areas. Such aggregations are almost certainly driven by foraging and behavioural strategies making space for diverse spatial organizations. Reef-associated shark species often show strong patterns of site fidelity that could be viewed as a prerequisite for sociality. However, there is limited empirical evidence that such aggregations are driven by intrinsic social factors. Association data for blacktip reef sharks, Carcharhinus melanopterus, were obtained from photoidentification surveys conducted in Moorea coral reefs (French Polynesia). We adapted a social network approach to demonstrate evidence of four main communities and two subcommunities within the population. We confronted the resulting structure with candidate explanatory variables. Sharks formed spatial groups characterized by nonrandom and long-term associations, despite opportunities for social relationships to develop between communities. Sex and length of sharks tended to influence assortment at the population and community levels. Individual space use also explained community structure, although spatial assortment was globally weaker than random expectations, suggesting that observed associations were not an artefact of the sampling design or spatial distribution of individuals. We conclude that the observed grouping patterns not only resulted from passive aggregations for specific resources, but rather the communities developed from an active choice of individuals as a sign of sociability. Individual preferences and adaptation to local conditions, as well as demographic, ecological and anthropogenic factors, may explain the social variability between communities. This suggests that a stable grouping strategy may confer substantial benefits in this marine predator.

Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making.