Julien Coquin

Focusing on the spatial non-stationarity of landslide predisposing factors in northern Iceland Do paraglacial factors vary over space?

Most studies focusing on landslide spatial analysis have considered the relationships between predictors and landslide occurrence as fixed effects. Yet spatially varying relationships, i.e. non-stationarity, often occur in any spatial data set and should be theoretically considered in statistical models for a better fit. In Skagafjörður, a landslide-rich north–south oriented area located in northern Iceland, we investigated whether spatial non-stationarity in the relationships between paraglacial variables (glacio-isostatic rebound and post-glacial debuttressing, both captured in this area by latitude) and landslide locations is detectable. To explore the non-stationarity of factors that predispose landslide occurrence, we performed two logistic regression models, one global (GLR) and the other enabling the regression parameters to vary locally (geographically weighted logistic regression, GWLR). Each model was computed with two types of outcome, one based on the entire masses of landslides and the other only on the scarps of landslides. GLR results reveal that increasing latitude is associated with increasing probability of landslide occurrence, confirming that post-glacial rebound is of prime importance at the regional scale. Nevertheless, GWLR indicates that this relationship is absent or reversed at some locations, meaning that the influence of paraglacial and other predisposing factors of landsliding (slope, valley depth and curvature) vary at the local scale. This result sheds light on the spatial clustering of three subzones where landsliding drivers are homogeneous. We conclude that a GWR-based approach provides some significant inputs for spatial analysis of mass movement processes, by identifying multi-scale process control zones and by highlighting local drivers, indecipherable in global models.

An early Holocene age for the Vatn landslide (Skagafjörður, central northern Iceland): Insights into the role of postglacial landsliding on slope development

Recent research in northern Iceland has highlighted a significant period of rock slope instability during the early Holocene due to the combined effects of postglacial rebound, relative sea-level fall, and glacially oversteepened mountain slopes. Using the Vatn landslide (Skagafjörður, central northern Iceland) as an example, this paper focuses on this period and describes the sequence of events that led to landsliding. Geomorphic mapping, stratigraphical evidence, and both radiocarbon and tephra dating were applied. Collectively, the data acquired indicate that the landslide occurred between 11,400 and 10,790 cal. yr BP. However, while rock slope failure represents a significant disintegration of mountain slopes, this study suggests that large postglacial landslides might also play a role in arresting sediment transport from other hillslope processes rather than contributing large volumes of sediment.

Denudation rates during a postglacial sequence in Northern Iceland: example of Laxárdalur valley in the Skagafjörður area

ABSTRACT For several decades, geomorphologists have focused on the functioning of geomorphic systems after deglaciation. The relative importance of paraglacial vs. periglacial processes has been highly debated. At present, the development of dating techniques allows to contribute to this debate. We reconstruct in this paper the geomorphic evolution of Tindastóll mountain slopes in Laxárdalur valley (Skagafjörður area, central northern Iceland), where a chronological framework can be established through tephrochronology and an assemblage of dated raised beaches. Volumetric calculations of constructed and excavated landforms were created from field data and from DEM and geographical information system techniques. Collectively, our data exhibit a first stage of paraglacial landsliding during the first half of the Holocene, followed by a stage of scree and rockglacier development (during the second half of the Holocene, but before 1100 AD). Our estimations indicate that more than 85% of the total sediment production were due to rock slope failure, and the rate of bedrock denudation due to periglacial processes was about one half of the rate of paraglacial processes. Nevertheless, paraglacial and periglacial processes cannot be seen here as antagonistic processes: they are organized in a sequence during which periglacial processes are conditioned (enhancement of bedrock denudation rates) by fracturing and consequent mass wasting. Screes and concomitant rockglaciers were indeed preconditioned by the landslide, while areas non-affected by landslides have remained mostly intact, characterized by a very low rate of accumulation due to geomorphic (periglacial) activity.