Julio Buchmann

FGGE Forecast Experiments for Amazon Basin Rainfall

Abstract We investigate the pattern of Amazon Basin rainfall forecasts of ten Global Weather Experiment (GWE) cases. Although the computations are based upon a rather crude wavenumber 15 resolution, the control forecasts exhibit a rather fine structure of the rainfall over tropical South America, including enhancements over the interior of the Amazon Basin and suppression on the northeast coast of Brazil. The forecasts appear to be in rather good agreement with climatology. The sensitivity of this model forecast to the presence of anomalous east Pacific heating is investigated through experiments in which a nonadiabatic term is added to the thermodynamic equation. These experiments suggest significant suppression of rainfall over the central Amazon Basin, and especially over the northeast portion of Brazil. This suppression is associated with the downward branch of a Walker circulation whose development is determined by a region of subsidence which propagates eastward from the eastern Pacific at a rate of...

The Effect of Tropical Atlantic Heating Anomalies upon GCM Rain Forecasts over the Americas

Abstract Severe droughts occurred over eastern sections of North America and central sections of South America in 1986 and 1988. We summarize data suggesting that both periods were characterized by above-normal tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and convection, and investigate the response of a general circulation model to positive heating anomalies in the tropical Atlantic sector. An eight-case control ensemble of 30 day global predictions is made starting from the atmospheric state observed on 1 January of each year from 1977 through 1984. The same eight cases are integrated in a second experimental ensemble that is identical to the first control ensemble, except that a heating term is added to the thermodynamic equation in a region centered at 30°W, 6.6°N. This is intended to simulate the latent heating of enhanced tropical Atlantic convection. The third ensemble is identical to the second, except the heating is centered at 6.6°S. Both heated ensembles produce reductions of forecast precipitati...

The Dynamical Basis of Regional Vertical Motion Fields Surrounding Localized Tropical Heating

Abstract A series of real-data integrations of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model with tropical heat anomalies display regions of pronounced subsidence and drying surrounding the anomaly. The present emphasis is upon subsidence and drying centers located several thousand kilometers westward and poleward of the heating. These features are repeatedly found in several different series of medium to extended range forecast experiments, including cases of tropical Atlantic heating and tropical east Pacific heating. This highly predictable sinking response is established within the first five days of these integrations. The normal modes of a set of primitive equations linearized about a resting basic state are used to partition model response into gravity-inertia and Rossby modes. The results show that most of the vertical motion response can be explained by gravity-mode contributions. The sensitivity of the response is examined through a series of numerical experiments with a s...

Further Experiments on the Effect of Tropical Atlantic Heating Anomalies upon GCM Rain Forecasts over the Americas

Abstract A series of real-data experiments is performed with a general circulation model to study the sensitivity of extended range rain forecasts over the Americas to the structure and magnitude of tropical beating anomalies. The emphasis is upon heat inputs over the tropical Atlantic, which have shown significant drying influences over North America in the authors prior simulations. The heating imposed in the prior experiments, that is, shown to be excessive by a factor of 2, is compared with the condensation heating rates that naturally occur in the forecast model. Present experiments reduce the imposed anomaly by a factor of 3 and also impose sea surface temperature decreases over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The new experimental results are in many ways consistent with the authors prior results. The dry North American response is statistically more significant than the South American response and occurs at least as frequently in the different members of the experimental ensembles as in our p...

Further FGGE Forecasts for Amazon Basin Rainfall

Abstract A series of experiments using real-data general circulation model integrations is performed to study the impact of remote tropical Pacific heating modifications upon the rainfall over the Amazon Basin. In one set of experiments, a heating term is added to the thermodynamic equation in the western tropical Pacific Ocean, and in the second set, the sea surface temperatures are cooled in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The rainfall of northern sections of South America decreases in the first set of experiments and increases in the second set of experiments. Examination of the circulation changes for the second set of experiments suggests that the remote links occur through equatorially trapped flow modifications, perhaps related to the east-west Walker cells, rather than through midlatitude teleconnections via Hadley cells. The time evolution of these patterns suggests them to be clearly relevant for medium range weather prediction in the tropics.