Julius Shiskin

Seasonal Adjustments by Electronic Computer Methods

Abstract * Revision of paper presented at a joint meeting of the American Statistical Association and the Econometric Society, session on Applications of Electronic Computers to Economic Statistics, December 27, 1955, in New York, N.Y.

Reverse Trend Adjustment of Leading Indicators

Forecasters cannot yet rely on indicators alone, for the reason that (as in periods like 1952 and 1962) they may give misleading signals; in expansions the indicators often turn down too many months before the true peak; in recessions, they turn up only a month or two before the upturn -by the time the data become available for smoothing, their main (important!) purpose is to tell us we have indeed already turned the corner. Economists look forward with interest to further improvement in these techniques...