Jun Ono

Interannual variations of Kuroshio transport in the East China Sea and its relation to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and mesoscale eddies

Results of a data-assimilative ocean model (JCOPE2) from 1993 to 2012 were used to examine the correlation between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index and interannual variations of the Kuroshio transport in the East China Sea (ECS) and the influences of mesoscale eddies on this correlation. In a period from 1993 to 2002, the Kuroshio transport estimated from the JCOPE2 reanalysis has a positive correlation with the PDO index. This well-known correlation became weak or even disappeared when the analysis period was extended from 1993–2002 to 1993–2012. This occurs because the variation range of the PDO index became small during enhanced mesoscale eddy activity southeast of Taiwan in years after 2002. The eddies caused a larger variation in the Kuroshio transport in the years after 2002 than before 2002, and therefore, changed the correlation between the PDO index and Kuroshio transport in the ECS. The influence of mesoscale eddies on the Kuroshio transport has strong regional dependence: the Kuroshio transport from the area east of Taiwan to the midway along the shelf break in the East China Sea depends mainly on eddies arriving from southeast of Taiwan, while transport from the midway along the shelf break to the Tokara Strait depends mainly on the eddies arriving from northeast of Okinawa Island. The combination of PDO-related signals and eddy-related signals determines the interannual variations of the Kuroshio transport in the ECS and sufficient attention must be paid to the spatial dependence of the Kuroshio transport in the ECS on eddies.

Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route.

During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could make ship navigation along the NSR difficult. Accurate forecasts of weather and sea ice are desirable for safe navigation, but large uncertainties exist in current forecasts, partly owing to the sparse observational network over the Arctic Ocean. Here, we show that the incorporation of additional Arctic observations improves the initial analysis and enhances the skill of weather and sea-ice forecasts, the application of which has socioeconomic benefits. Comparison of 63-member ensemble atmospheric forecasts, using different initial data sets, revealed that additional Arctic radiosonde observations were useful for predicting a persistent strong wind event. The sea-ice forecast, initialised by the wind fields that included the effects of the observations, skilfully predicted rapid wind-driven sea-ice advection along the NSR.

The impact of radiosonde data on forecasting sea-ice distribution along the Northern Sea Route during an extremely developed cyclone

To investigate the impact of radiosonde data on the sea-ice forecast in the Northern Sea Route during an extremely developed cyclone on 6 August 2012, a series of numerical experiments were conducted using an ice-ocean coupled model with fine horizontal resolution (approximately 2.5 km). The atmospheric forcing data used for the model were forecast data with (CTL) and without (OSE) initialization by radiosonde data over the Fram Strait, obtained by the German R/V Polarstern, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis data. All numerical experiments were run from 06:00 UTC on 3 August 2012 to 00:00 UTC on 8 August 2012 with an initial sea-ice concentration and thickness derived from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 satellite data. The root-mean-square error and correlation coefficient for the sea-ice distribution showed that the CTL simulation predicted better the sea-ice distribution in the Northern Sea Route than the OSE simulation. This occurred in particular from 6 to 7 August when the cyclone became strong. The thermodynamic processes resulted in the difference in the sea-ice thickness due to changes in the vertical energy fluxes. However, the differences in the sea-ice concentration and velocity were caused mainly by the dynamics, particularly the difference in wind fields, rather than the thermodynamics. These results suggest that radiosonde data are effective in improving the forecast accuracy of the sea-ice distribution. Therefore, errors in the weather forecast data would have a substantial impact on the safety of ship navigation and the sea-ice distribution.

Ice–ocean coupled computations for sea-ice prediction to support ice navigation in Arctic sea routes

With the recent rapid decrease in summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean extending the navigation period in the Arctic sea routes (ASR), the precise prediction of ice distribution is crucial for safe and efficient navigation in the Arctic Ocean. In general, however, most of the available numerical models have exhibited significant uncertainties in short-term and narrow-area predictions, especially in marginal ice zones such as the ASR. In this study, we predict short-term sea-ice conditions in the ASR by using a mesoscale eddy-resolving ice–ocean coupled model that explicitly treats ice floe collisions in marginal ice zones. First, numerical issues associated with collision rheology in the ice–ocean coupled model (ice–Princeton Ocean Model [POM]) are discussed and resolved. A model for the whole of the Arctic Ocean with a coarser resolution (about 25 km) was developed to investigate the performance of the ice–POM model by examining the reproducibility of seasonal and interannual sea-ice variability. It was found that this coarser resolution model can reproduce seasonal and interannual sea-ice variations compared to observations, but it cannot be used to predict variations over the short-term, such as one to two weeks. Therefore, second, high-resolution (about 2.5 km) regional models were set up along the ASR to investigate the accuracy of short-term sea-ice predictions. High-resolution computations were able to reasonably reproduce the sea-ice extent compared to Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observing System satellite observations because of the improved expression of the ice–albedo feedback process and the ice–eddy interaction process.

A numerical study on the seasonal variability of polychlorinated biphenyls from the atmosphere in the East China Sea.

A three-dimensional/high-resolution transport model for persistent organic pollutants (POPs) has been developed for the East China Sea (ECS). The POPs model has four compartments (gaseous, dissolved, phytoplankton-bound, and detritus-bound phases) and includes processes for diffusive air-water exchange, phytoplankton uptake/depuration to POPs, decomposition of dissolved phase, vertical sinking of phytoplankton, detritus production by phytoplankton mortality, and vertical sinking and decomposition of detritus. The POPs model is coupled with an ocean circulation model that can reproduce the seasonal variation in physical variables to represent the advection and diffusion of POPs. We applied the POPs model to the polychlorinated biphenyl congener 153 (PCB 153) from the atmosphere and examined the behavior of PCB 153 in the ocean. The model showed a remarkable seasonal variability of PCB 153. Concentrations in the dissolved and particulate phases are high in winter (January-March) and low in summer (July-September). In coastal regions, where chlorophyll a concentration is high, horizontal and vertical distributions in the dissolved and particulate PCB 153 concentrations are strongly affected by phytoplankton uptake. The sensitivity experiments on the dynamics of PCB 153 suggested that a change of Henrys law constant associated with water temperature is the major factor controlling the seasonal variability of PCB 153. The model-based yearly mass balance of PCB 153 in the ECS indicated that most of the atmospheric input (35.5 kg year(-1)) is removed by the horizontal advection outside the ECS (19.0 kg year(-1)) and accumulates to the sea bottom by vertical sinking (15.7 kg year(-1)). For comparison with PCB 153, we also conducted simulations for PCB 52, 101, and 180. The seasonal variations are similar to that of PCB 153. The mass balance of PCB 52 that has short half-life time and less hydrophobic property shows the different results compared with PCB 101, 153, and 180.