Jun Rentschler

Reforming fossil fuel subsidies: drivers, barriers and the state of progress

This article outlines the current state of affairs in fossil fuel subsidy reform, and highlights its contribution at the nexus of climate policy, fiscal stability and sustainable development. It discusses common definitions, provides quantitative estimates, and presents the evidence for key arguments in favour of subsidy reform. The main drivers and barriers for reform are also discussed, including the role of (low) oil prices and political economy challenges. Commitments to subsidy reform by the international community are reviewed, as well as the progress at the country level. Although fossil fuel subsidy reform indeed plays a critical role in climate policy, experience shows that the rationale for such reforms is determined in a complex environment of political economy challenges, macro-economic, fiscal and social factors, as well as external drivers such as energy prices. The article synthesizes the key principles for designing effective reforms and emphasizes that subsidy reforms cannot only yield fiscal relief, but should also contribute to long-term sustainable development objectives. Areas for future research are also identified. Policy relevance There is an increasingly strong international consensus that fossil fuel subsidies are detrimental in terms of economic, social and environmental sustainability. Organizations including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the International Energy Agency consider fossil fuel subsidy reform a critical measure for achieving any ambitious emissions mitigation target. The reason is that these subsidies not only incentivize overconsumption of carbon-intensive energy, but directly undermine any effort to impose a price on carbon (e.g. through carbon taxes). While subsidy reform is crucial from a climate change perspective, the wide range of externalities associated with fuel subsidies also underscores the fact that reform is a vital contribution to sustainable development objectives more generally. This article emphasizes that fossil fuel subsidy reform can make a substantial contribution to climate policy, but also discusses how strongly environmental objectives are intertwined with fiscal, macro-economic, political and social factors. Although the momentum for subsidy reform is building, reforms are often designed to deliver fiscal rather than environmental benefits.

Risk management for development--assessing obstacles and prioritizing action.

Throughout the process of economic and social development, decisionmakers from the household to the state level are confronted with a multitude of risks: from health and employment risks, to financial and political crises, as well as environmental damages and from the local to global level. The World Banks 2014 World Development Report (WDR) provides an in-depth analysis of how the management of such risks can be improved. In particular, it argues that a proactive and integrated approach to risk management can create opportunities for fighting poverty and achieving prosperity--but also acknowledges substantial obstacles to its implementation in practice. This article presents and discusses these obstacles with respect to their causes, consequences, interlinkages, and solutions. In particular, these include obstacles to individual risk management, the obstacles that are beyond the control of individuals and thus require collective action, and, finally, the obstacles that affect the ability of governments and public authorities to manage risks. From these obstacles, this article derives a policy roadmap for the development of risk management strategies that are designed not only around the risk they have to cope with, but also around the practical obstacles to policy implementation.

Oil price volatility, economic growth and the hedging role of renewable energy

This paper investigates the adverse effects of oil price volatility on economic activity and the extent to which countries can hedge against such effects by using renewable energy. By considering the Realized Volatility of oil prices, rather than following the standard approach of considering oil price shocks in levels, the effects of factor price uncertainty on economic activity are analyzed. Sample countries represent developed and developing, oil importing and exporting and service/industry-based economies (United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea, India, and Malaysia) and thus complement the standard literatures analysis of Western OECD countries. In a vector auto-regressive setting, Granger causality tests, impulse response functions, and variance decompositions show that oil price volatility has more-adverse effects in all sample countries than oil price shocks alone can explain. The paper finds that the sensitivity to oil price volatility varies widely across countries and discusses various factors which may determine the level of sensitivity (such as sectoral composition and the energy mix). This implies that the standard approach of solely considering net oil importer-exporter status is not sufficient. Simulations of volatility shocks in hypothetical energy mixes (with increased renewable shares) illustrate the potential economic benefits resulting from efforts to disconnect the macroeconomy from volatile commodity markets. It is concluded that expanding renewable energy can in principle reduce an economys vulnerability to oil price volatility, but a country-specific analysis would be necessary to identify concrete policy measures. Overall, the paper provides an additional rationale for reducing exposure and vulnerability to oil price volatility for the sake of economic growth.

Why Resilience Matters : The Poverty Impacts of Disasters

This paper presents empirical evidence of the profound and long-term damages from adverse natural events on poverty. It analyzes 30 years of macro-level damage data from disasters (including earthquakes, floods, and storms), according to income groups, and shows that low-income countries incur disproportionately large damages relative to their assets. Furthermore, the paper reviews the micro-level evidence of disaster impacts on the livelihoods of the poorest households. The evidence suggests that the poor are significantly more vulnerable and exposed to the economic and human capital losses caused by disasters. It discusses detrimental long-term consequences for the income and welfare of the poor and the presence of poverty traps that result from damages to productive assets, health, and education. The roles of migration and ex-ante behavior are also discussed. In the context of climate change, the paper underscores the importance of considering the detrimental impacts of smaller but repeated crises, for instance caused by changes in local precipitation patterns. Lastly, the paper offers a brief discussion of policy options for strengthening resilience and highlights the need for further research for understanding the complex direct and indirect effects of disasters on the poor.

Carbon price efficiency : lock-in and path dependence in urban forms and transport infrastructure

This paper investigates the effect of carbon or gasoline taxes on commuting-related CO2 emissions in an urban context. To assess the impact of public transport on the efficiency of the tax, the paper investigates two exogenous scenarios using a dynamic urban model (NEDUM-2D) calibrated for the urban area of Paris: (i) a scenario with the current dense public transport infrastructure, and (ii) a scenario without. It is shown that the price elasticity of CO2 emissions is twice as high in the short run if public transport options exist. Reducing commuting-related emissions thus requires lower (and more acceptable) tax levels in the presence of dense public transportation. If the goal of a carbon or gasoline tax is to change behaviors and reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions (not to raise revenues), then there is an incentive to increase the price elasticity through complementary policies such as public transport development. The emission elasticity also depends on the baseline scenario and is larger when population growth and income growth are high. In the longer run, elasticities are higher and similar in the scenarios with and without public transport, because of larger urban reconfiguration in the latter scenario. These results are policy relevant, especially for fast-growing cities in developing countries. Even for cities where emission reductions are not a priority today, there is an option value attached to a dense public transport network, since it makes it possible to reduce emissions at a lower cost in the future.

Investments in material efficiency: the introduction and application of a comprehensive cost–benefit framework

ABSTRACT Increasing material efficiency is considered to yield multiple economic and environmental benefits. This paper firstly introduces a comprehensive cost–benefit framework to systematically assess the viability of investments in material efficiency. The framework comprises several components by (1) comparing a business-as-usual scenario with a scenario of scaling up investments in material efficiency, (2) covering economic and environmental dimensions, and (3) considering direct and indirect effects. In a second step, we match the framework to existing evidence from the literature, followed by an application of the framework to a microeconomic investment project financed by a multilateral development bank. Our results suggest that material efficiency investments can yield positive net benefits, which typically increase when non-monetary dimensions are additionally taken into account. Overall, our analysis calls for a more comprehensive approach towards material efficiency investment appraisals, the internalisation of externalities, and further empirical research to better understand the implications of moving towards material efficient economies.

Building Back Better: Achieving Resilience through Stronger, Faster, and More Inclusive Post-Disaster Reconstruction

The 2017 Unbreakable report made the case that disaster losses disproportionately affect poor people. The Caribbean hurricane season of 2017 was a tragic illustration of this. Two category 5 hurricanes wreaked destruction on numerous small islands, causing severe damages on islands like Barbuda, Dominica, and Saint Martin. The human cost of these disasters was immense, and the impact of this devastation was felt most strongly by poorer communities in the path of the storms. And yet, amidst the destruction it is essential to look forward and to build back better. In this 2018 report the authors explore how countries can strengthen their resilience to natural shocks through a better reconstruction process. Reconstruction needs to be strong, so that assets and livelihoods become less vulnerable to future shocks; fast, so that people can get back to their normal life as early as possible; and inclusive, so that nobody is left behind in the recovery process. The benefits of building back better could be very large – up to US

The Last Mile : Delivery Mechanisms for Post-Disaster Finance

173 billion per year globally – and would be greatest among the communities and countries that are hit by disasters most intensely and frequently and that have limited coverage of social protection and financial inclusion. Small island states – because of their size, exposure, and vulnerability – are among the countries where building back better has the greatest potential. A stronger, faster, and more inclusive recovery would lead to an average reduction in disaster-related well-being losses of 59 percent in the 17 small island states covered in the report.

The Triple Dividend of Resilience—A New Narrative for Disaster Risk Management and Development

Governments now have access to a large and growing range of financing instruments for rapidlymobilizing funds in the aftermath of a disaster. Instruments like reserve funds, contingent linesof credit, and insurance programs are critical for financing relief, recovery and reconstruction efforts, and they have a demonstrated impact on the ability of governments to manage large-scale disasters. The availability of financial resources however, is only half of the story. The capacity of a government to support post-disaster recovery and reconstruction depends substantially on its ability to deliver these resources effectively to where they are needed. Doingso requires that governments are prepared before a disaster hits, with the right instruments, institutions, and capacities in place. By preparing contingency plans, defining responsibilities, adopting appropriate regulations and norms, enhancing financial inclusion and insurance regulations, and establishing flexible and gender-inclusive social protection systems, governments could improve the reconstruction process and generate over 173 billion dollars per year inbenefits. There are major synergies between the financial instruments that make the resources available and the systems that deliver these resources where they are needed. In the next few years, the design and implementation of new financial instruments will offer an unprecedented opportunity to improve the last-mile delivery of post-disaster support. This opportunity should not be missed.

Incidence and impact: The regional variation of poverty effects due to fossil fuel subsidy reform

To secure development gains and help eradicate poverty in the long run, it is critical to strengthen ex-ante disaster risk management (DRM) measures that build resilience at the household, firm and macro level. Decision-makers however often view DRM investments as a gamble that pays off only in the event of a disaster. This is despite increasing evidence that building resilience yields significant and tangible benefits, even if a disaster does not happen for many years. This chapter outlines the Triple Dividend of Resilience as a new analytical method to enhance the business case for investments in building resilience. The three benefits that are outlined are: (1) avoiding losses when disasters strike; (2) unlocking development potential by stimulating economic activity thanks to reduced disaster-related investment risks; and (3) social, environmental and economic co-benefits associated with investments. The second and third dividends in particular are typically overlooked in appraisals around investment decisions, and can accrue even in the absence of disaster events. Presenting evidence of additional dividends to policy-makers and investors can provide a stronger case for investment in DRM, helping to reconcile short- and long-term objectives. This chapter sets the conceptual basis for the more detailed assessments of the resilience streams and implications for decision-makers provided in the following chapters.