Jun Uno

The behavior of prices in the Nikkei spot and futures market

Abstract We examine the relation between the prices of Japanese stocks traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) as reflected in the Nikkei Stock Average (NSA) stock index and the prices of the NSA futures contract traded on the Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX). Since the inception of trading in September 1986, the NSA futures contract has generally sold at a discount relative to its theoretical value. Trading restrictions and transaction costs may explain some of this mispricing, which has been declining over time, as in the U.S. markets.

Sovereign credit risk, liquidity, and ECB intervention: Deus ex machina?

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between credit risk and liquidity in the sovereign bond market in the context of the European Central Bank (ECB) interventions. Using a comprehensive set of liquidity measures obtained from a detailed, quote-level dataset of the largest interdealer market for Italian government bonds, we show that changes in credit risk, as measured by the Italian sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spread, generally drive the liquidity of the market: a 10% change in the CDS spread leads a 11% change in the bid-ask spread. This relationship is stronger, and the transmission is faster, when the CDS spread is above the 500 basis point threshold, estimated endogenously, and can be ascribed to changes in margins and collateral, as well as clientele effects. Moreover, we show that the Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO) intervention by the ECB weakened the sensitivity of the liquidity provision by the market makers to changes in the Italian governments credit risk. We also document the importance of market-wide and dealer-specific funding liquidity measures in determining the market liquidity for Italian government bonds.

Stock index futures arbitrage in the Japanese markets

Abstract This study examines the behavior of the prices of the first two futures contracts on Japanese stock price indices to be traded, the Nikkei Stock Average (NSA) contract on the Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX), and the Osaka Stock Futures 50 (OSF50) contract on the Osaka Securities Exchange (OSE). We find significant departures between the actual prices of the contracts and their ‘fair’ prices in the early months of trading from June 1987 to June 1988. The NSA contract was dominated by discounts of the actual prices in relation to the ‘fair’ price while the OSF50 contract was characterized by both premiums and discounts during this period. This suggests the viability of ‘cross-spreading’ strategies which were analyzed and found to be profitable during much of the period under study.

Central Bank-Driven Mispricing

We show that bond purchases undertaken in the context of quantitative easing efforts by the European Central Bank created a large mispricing between the market for German and Italian government bonds and their respective futures contracts. On top of the direct effect the buying pressure exerted on bond prices, we show three indirect channels through which the scarcity of bonds, resulting from the asset purchases, drove a wedge between the futures contracts and the underlying bonds: the deterioration of bond market liquidity, the increased bond specialness on the repurchase agreement market, and the greater uncertainty about bond availability as collateral.

Scarcity and Spotlight Effects on Term Structure: Quantitative Easing in Japan

We investigate the determinants of the term structures of bond yield and market liquidity in the context of the Quantitative Easing (QE) programs implemented by the Bank of Japan. Between 2011 and 2016, we find that Japanese government bonds (JGBs) show an improvement in liquidity through the spotlight effect but also experience a deterioration in liquidity through the scarcity effect. As for the yield, both the spotlight and scarcity effects work in the same direction (i.e., they raise bond prices). Overall, the prices of JGBs rise by reflecting only the strong demand from the QE, despite the deterioration in liquidity.

The International Linkage of Interest Rate Swap Spreads: The Yen-Dollar Markets

One of the important innovations in financial markets in recent years has been the development of the interest rate swap markets. Recent estimates indicate that the notional outstanding amount of privately negotiated (over-the-counter) derivatives at the end of 1998 was over

Number of Shareholders and Stock Prices: Evidence from Japan

80 trillion, of which interest rate swaps accounted for over

Credit Risk and the Yen Interest Rate Swap Market

50 trillion. Given the importance of the yen in international trade and finance, it is not surprising that yen interest rate swaps form a substantial proportion of this amount (about

Coupon Effects and the Pricing of Japanese Government Bonds: An Empirical Analysis

10 trillion), second only to dollar-denominated swaps (about

The Microstructure of the European Sovereign Bond Market: A Study of the Euro-zone Crisis

14 trillion). 1