Junhong Chu

Quantifying Transaction Costs in Online/Off-line Grocery Channel Choice

Households incur transaction costs when choosing among off-line stores for grocery purchases. They may incur additional transaction costs when buying groceries online versus off-line. We integrate the various transaction costs into a channel choice framework and empirically quantify the relative transaction costs when households choose between the online and off-line channels of the same grocery chain. The key challenges in quantifying these costs are (i) the complexity of channel choice decision and (ii) that several of the costs depend on the items a household expects to buy in the store, and unobserved factors that influence channel choice also likely influence the items purchased. We use the unique features of our empirical context to address the first issue and the plausibly exogenous approach in a hierarchical Bayesian framework to account for the endogeneity of the channel choice drivers. We find that transaction costs for grocery shopping can be sizable and play an important role in the choice between online and off-line channels. We provide monetary metrics for several types of transaction costs, such as travel time and transportation costs, in-store shopping time, item-picking costs, basket-carrying costs, quality inspection costs, and inconvenience costs. We find considerable household heterogeneity in these costs and characterize their distributions. We discuss the implications of our findings for the retailers channel strategy.

Quantifying the Economic Value of Warranties in the U.S. Server Market

We quantify the economic value of hardware base warranties in the U.S. server market to manufacturers, channel intermediaries, and customers. We further decompose the value of a warranty into its insurance value and its price discrimination value, which are the two main rationales for warranty provision in the server market. We use structural modeling and counterfactual experiments to accomplish the empirical task. We derive our demand model from utility maximization, which accounts for a customers risk aversion behavior and heterogeneity. We obtain our pricing model from the profit maximization behavior of manufacturers and downstream firms in indirect channels, accounting for the institutional realities in the server market. Our empirical analysis uses quarterly data from 1999 to 2004 on server wholesale prices, retail prices, and sales for direct and indirect channels in the U.S. market. We find that manufacturers and downstream firms benefit from warranty provision and from sorting across heterogeneous customers by offering a menu of warranties. Customers also benefit from manufacturer warranty provision as well as from the menu of warranties offered. The insurance value of warranties increases and the price discrimination value of warranties decreases with warranty duration.

Quantifying Cross and Direct Network Effects in Online Consumer-to-Consumer Platforms

Consumer-to-consumer (C2C) platforms have become a major engine of growth in Internet commerce. This is especially true in countries such as China, which are experiencing a big rush toward e-commerce. The emergence of such platforms gives researchers the unique opportunity to investigate the evolution of such platforms by focusing on the growth of both buyers and sellers. In this research, we build a utility-based model to quantify both cross and direct network effects on Alibaba Group’s Taobao.com, the world’s largest online C2C platform (based in China). Specifically, we investigate the relative contributions of different factors that affect the growth of buyers and sellers on the platform. Our results suggest that the direct network effects do not play a big role in the platform’s growth (we detect a small positive direct network effect on buyer growth and no direct network effect on seller growth). More importantly, we find a significant, large and positive cross-network effect on both sides of the pl...

Quantifying Nation Equity with Sales Data: A Structural Approach

Nation equity refers to a products equity that is associated with its country of origin (COO). Generalized COO effects have previously been studied through experiments and surveys and measured by quality perception, product attitude, and purchase intention. We propose a structural equilibrium approach to assessing the additional market power COO offers, monetizing nation equity with product sales data, and computing the price premiums and discounts associated with nation equity. We apply this approach to Chinas personal computer market between 1995 and 2008 and find that COO does generate additional market power and affects firm markups. We find nation equity to be pervasive, significant, and multidimensional, and it evolves over time, but there is no simple correspondence between market share and nation equity. Large market shares do not necessarily mean positive nation equity and price premiums, negative nation equity and price discounts can evolve into positive nation equity and price premiums, and vice versa. We discuss the implications of our modeling approach and our findings for emerging markets in general, and for China in particular.

Clicks versus Bricks: The role of durability in marketing channel strategy of durable goods manufacturers

We develop a two-period dual-channel model for a durable goods manufacturer to investigate how product durability and the channel structure create strategic issues that are significantly different from those in managing a dual channel for nondurables. The manufacturer can sell directly by its own e-channel and indirectly via an independent reseller. Our game-theoretic model nests Arya et al. (2007) as a special case when product durability reduces to zero and thus generalizes it to the durable goods setting. The equilibrium solutions indicate that, when the product is durable, both parties’ profitability strongly depends on product durability and direct selling cost. In particular, we find that, compared to encroaching the reseller’s market by direct selling online, it is optimal for the manufacturer to open an inactive e-channel that serves only as an information medium. Moreover, we find that, contrary to Arya et al.’s (2007) results, if product durability is moderate, for any direct selling cost, manufacturer’s encroachment is always detrimental to the reseller, and thus its bright side disappears. We test our model’s theoretical predictions of the effects of product durability on manufacturer’s and reseller’s profitability with data from the U.S. x86 computer server market, and find strong empirical support-profitability of both parties is higher when product durability is sufficiently low or sufficiently high, and lower when durability is intermediate.

Quantifying Cross and Direct Network Effects in Online C2C Platforms

Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C) platforms have become a major engine of growth in Internet commerce. This is especially true in countries such as China, which are experiencing a big rush towards electronic commerce. The emergence of such platforms gives researchers the unique opportunity to investigate the evolution of such platforms by focusing on the growth of both buyers and sellers. In this research, we build a utility-based model to quantify both cross and direct network effects on Alibaba Group’s Taobao.com, the world’s largest online C2C platform (based in China). Specifically, we investigate the relative contributions of different factors that affect the growth of buyers and sellers on the platform. Our results suggest that the direct network effects do not play a big role in the platform’s growth (we detect a small positive direct network effect on buyer growth and no direct network effect on seller growth). More importantly, we find a significant, large and positive cross-network effect on both sides of the platform. In other words, the installed base of either side of the platform has propelled the growth of the other side (and thus the overall growth). Interestingly, this cross-network effect is asymmetric with the installed base of sellers having a much larger effect on the growth of buyers than vice versa. The growth in the number of buyers is driven primarily by the seller’s installed base and product variety with increasing importance of product variety. The growth in the number of sellers is driven by buyer’s installed base, buyer quality, and product price with increasing importance of buyer quality. We also investigate the nature of these cross-network effects over time. We find that the cross-network effect of sellers on buyers increases and then decreases to reach a stable level. In contrast, the cross-network effect of buyers on sellers is relatively stable. We discuss the policy implications of these findings for C2C platforms in general and Taobao in particular.