Junji Xiao

Market Equilibrium and the Environmental Effects of Tax Adjustments in China's Automobile Industry

This paper explores the effects of consumption-tax and fuel-tax adjustments in the Chinese automobile industry. Applying the model and simulation method of Berry, Levinson, and Pakes (1995), we conduct a comparative static analysis of equilibrium prices and sales, fuel consumption, and social welfare before and after tax adjustments. For the first time, we compare the progressivity of both taxes. Our empirical findings suggest that the fuel tax is effective in decreasing fuel consumption at the expense of social welfare, while the consumption tax does not significantly affect either fuel consumption or social welfare.

The Price Evolution in China's Automobile Market: China's Automobile Market

The automobile market in China has seen unprecedented expansion during the past decade with rapid model turnover and dramatic price decline. This paper aims to document the evolution of price and investigate the sources of price decline, paying attention to both market structure and cost factors. We estimate a market equilibrium model with differentiated multiproduct oligopoly using market�?level sales data in China together with information from household surveys. Our counterfactual simulations show that (quality�?adjusted) vehicle prices have dropped by 33% from 2004 to 2009. The decrease in markup from intensified competition accounts for about one third of this change and the rest comes from cost reductions through learning by doing and other channels. In addition, our simulations show that the price decline would have been larger had it not been for the growth of household income during this period.

Factors affecting the take-off of innovative technologies: evidence from digital cameras

While technological innovations are important for many industries, take-off sales for innovative products can have long lead times due to a variety of factors. This article identifies the main parameters affecting digital camera take-off sales in the US between 2001 and 2004. The study constructs an empirical model for film and digital camera shipments and finds that digital cameras primarily served as a substitute for low-end film compacts rather than high-end film Single-Lens Reflex (SLR) cameras. Also, growth in household PC ownership and Windows XP market share were the main contributing factors to the decline of film cameras, with PC penetration rate as the most important factor for digital camera diffusion.

Vehicle Quota System and Its Impact on the Chinese Auto Markets: A Tale of Two Cities

This paper investigates the impact of the unique vehicle quota system of Shanghai, China, on two Chinese markets of passenger vehicles. The empirical findings suggest that conditional on purchase of the license quota, consumers intend to purchase high-end vehicles with high price since the customers who can afford the license quota are less price sensitive. Hence, this system puts the manufacturers producing low end cars at a disadvantage.