Junko Mochizuki

Technologies to Support Community Flood Disaster Risk Reduction

Abstract Floods affect more people globally than any other type of natural hazard. Great potential exists for new technologies to support flood disaster risk reduction. In addition to existing expert-based data collection and analysis, direct input from communities and citizens across the globe may also be used to monitor, validate, and reduce flood risk. New technologies have already been proven to effectively aid in humanitarian response and recovery. However, while ex-ante technologies are increasingly utilized to collect information on exposure, efforts directed towards assessing and monitoring hazards and vulnerability remain limited. Hazard model validation and social vulnerability assessment deserve particular attention. New technologies offer great potential for engaging people and facilitating the coproduction of knowledge.

A risk management tool for tackling country-wide contingent disasters

Governments are key players in managing disaster risks, and fiscal risk management has become an integral part of disaster risk management. However, the ability of governments to implement disaster risk management strategies differs significantly across countries, depending on their capacity and resource constraints. The CatSim model and its most recent version presented in this paper helps to fill part of the information gap regarding the capacity and resources of a government to deal with natural disaster risk. We provide an in-depth example how the model works for the case of managing cyclone risk in Madagascar. In doing so, we provide recommendations as to how some of the more difficult concepts from the disaster risk theory and modelling field can be most easily understood by non-technically trained stakeholders. Such understanding is beneficial in facilitating consensus-building among various risk bearers from different sectors regarding options for managing risk. Only publicly available model for natural disaster risk management on the country level.Used and extended based on high-level workshops in more than 22 countries.In-depth example of cyclone risk in Madagascar given.

Revisiting the "disaster and development" debate - Toward a broader understanding of macroeconomic risk and resilience

Debate regarding the relationship between socioeconomic development and natural disasters remains at the fore of global discussions, as the potential risk from climate extremes and uncertainty pose an increasing threat to developmental prospects. This study reviews statistical investigations of disaster and development linkages, across topics of macroeconomic growth, public governance and others to identify key challenges to the current approach to macro-level statistical investigation. Both theoretically and qualitatively, disaster is known to affect development through a number of channels: haphazard development, weak institutions, lack of social safety nets and short-termism of our decision-making practices are some of the factors that drive natural disaster risk. Developmental potentials, including the prospects for sustainable and equitable growth, are in turn threatened by such accumulation of disaster risks. However, quantitative evidence regarding these complex causality chains remains contested due to several reasons. A number of theoretical and methodological limitations have been identified, including the use of GDP as a proxy measurement of welfare, issues with natural disaster damage reporting and the adoption of ad hoc model specifications and variables, which render interpretation and cross-comparison of statistical analysis difficult. Additionally, while greater attention is paid to economic and institutional parameters such as GDP, remittance, corruption and public expenditure as opposed to hard-to-quantify yet critical factors such as environmental conditions and social vulnerabilities. These are gaps in our approach that hamper our comprehensive understanding of the disaster-development nexus. Important areas for further research are identified, including recognizing and addressing the data constraints, incorporating sustainability and equity concerns through alternatives to GDP, and finding novel approaches to examining the complex and dynamic relationships between risk, vulnerability, resilience, adaptive capacity and development.

Operationalizing Iterative Risk Management under Limited Information: Fiscal and Economic Risks Due to Natural Disasters in Cambodia

Iterative risk management and risk-sensitive public investment planning are increasingly seen as essential elements of natural disaster resilience. This article assesses the disaster risk facing the hazard-prone Southeast Asian country of Cambodia and discusses its fiscal preparedness and need for proactive disaster risk management. The study provides a bottom-up assessment of flood and cyclone risks to public and private buildings including educational structures, health facilities, and housing and estimates the total direct economic damage to range from approximately USD 304 million for a 5-year return period event to USD 2.26 billion for a 1000-year return period event. These estimates were further analyzed using the fiscal risk due to disasters, which indicates that Cambodia will likely face a resource gap whenever a hazard as large as that of a 28-year return period event strikes. Given the frequent occurrence of disasters and rapid accumulation of capital assets taking place, proactive risk reduction is highly advisable. But interviews with national policymakers also revealed that there are a number of barriers to effective risk reduction and management in Cambodia. The general lack of awareness regarding risk-based concepts and the limited availability of local risk information necessitate a continued and sustained effort to build iterative risk management in Cambodia.

Disaster resilience: What it is and how it can engender a meaningful change in development policy

Disasters pose a growing threat to sustainable development. Disaster risk management efforts have largely failed to arrest the underlying drivers of growing risk globally: uncontrolled urbanization and proliferation of assets in hazardous areas. Resilience provides an opportunity to confront the social-ecological foundations of risk and development; yet it has been vaguely conceptualized, without offering a concrete approach to operationalization. We propose a conceptualization of disaster resilience centred on wellbeing: ‘The ability of a system, community or society to pursue its social, ecological and economic development objectives, while managing its disaster risk over time in a mutually reinforcing way.’ We present a conceptual framework for understanding the interconnections between disasters and development, and outline how it is being operationalized in practice.

Disaster Risk Management and Fiscal Policy: Narratives, Tools, and Evidence Associated with Assessing Fiscal Risk and Building Resilience

This paper addresses the question whether and how co-benefits, through disaster resilience building, can be further promoted. Co-benefits are defined as positive externalities that arise deliberately as a result of a joint strategy that pursues several objectives synergistically at the same time, such as disaster risk management and development goals, or disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. Of particular interest is the question of how the economic and broader benefits of disaster risk management can be recognized and realized by those in charge of fiscal policy decisions. The paper considers the interplay between public disaster risk management investment and fiscal policy, and provides an overview of the current debate as well as assessment methods, tools, and policy options. In fiscal budgeting, it has been standard practice to focus on direct liabilities and recurrent spending. Costs of disasters are often dealt with after the fact only, rather than being considered as contingent liabilities. As a consequence, the full costs of disasters have often not been budgeted for, and, with a price signal missing, there is lack of clear incentives for investing in disaster risk management. Overall, the paper identifies four steps and three dividends to be harnessed: (i) understanding fiscal risk; (ii) protecting public finance through risk financing instruments, the first dividend; (iii) managing disaster risk comprehensively, the second dividend; and (iv) pursuing a synergistic, co-benefits strategy of concurrently managing disaster risks and promoting development, the third dividend.

An overdue alignment of risk and resilience? A conceptual contribution to community resilience

A systematic review of literature on community resilience measurement published between 2005 and 2014 revealed that the profound lack of clarity on risk and resilience is one of the main reasons why confusion about terms such as adaptive capacity, resilience, and vulnerability persists, despite the effort spared to operationalise these concepts. Resilience is measured in isolation in some cases, where a shock is perceived to arise external to the system of interest. Problematically, this contradicts the way in which the climate change and disaster communities perceive risk as manifesting itself endogenously as a function of exposure, hazard, and vulnerability. The common conceptualisation of resilience as predominantly positive is problematic as well when, in reality, many undesirable properties of a system are resilient. Consequently, this paper presents an integrative framework that highlights the interactions between risk drivers and coping, adaptive, and transformative capacities, providing an improved conceptual basis for resilience measurement.

Life cycle assessment of ethanol production from tropical banagrass (Pennisetum purpureum) using green and dry processing technologies in Hawaii

This study conducted well-to-pump and well-to wheel life-cycle assessment of fossil energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during ethanol production from tropical Banagrass (Pennisetum purpureum) using green-processing (with the use of fresh feedstocks) and dry or conventional processing (with the use of dried feedstocks) in the state of Hawaii. 10 000 MJ of energy was used as a functional unit with a systematic boundary drawn based on relative mass, energy, and economic value method using a 1% cutoff value, and the results were compared to those of conventional gasoline, and ethanol from corn and other ethanol lignocellulosic feedstocks. Detailed techno-economic model was built using the SuperPro designer. Ethanol yields were estimated at 0.27 l/kg (green processing with fungal co-product), 0.27 l/kg (green processing without co-product), and 0.29 l/kg (dry-processing) of feedstock, respectively. The well-to-pump analysis indicate that ethanol production consume 8200 MJ (green processing with co-p...

Integrated Risk Identification, Analysis, and Assessment: A Dynamic Household Economy Analysis Methodology and Example

Many methodologies identify, analyze, and assess static risks to quantify potential disaster losses based on past and current events. Static methodologies will not, however, capture how climate change and adaptation are rapidly affecting the natural and social systems in many areas. Local and global changes such as those associated with development investments, livelihood pressures, political stability, and demographic trends are also affecting many areas, especially in emerging economies. Risk identification, analysis, and assessment methodologies must integrate all changes dynamically so that risk reduction and development decisions can be based on future needs. After a theoretical explanation of how to integrate dynamic changes, a static Household Economy Analysis (HEA) completed for a rapidly changing area of East Timor was altered using current trends to make the analysis more dynamic. Some inherent difficulties exist with a more dynamic approach and recommendations for overcoming them are presented. Research, government, and non-government personnel interested in integrated approaches to risk reduction and development decision-making in areas subject to rapid change will find the study useful.

Games for Aiding Stakeholder Deliberation on Nexus Policy Issues

Games can provide an effective and replicable space in which stakeholders learn skills necessary for deliberative and pluralist policymaking. These skills are especially important for “nexus” policy issues that are typically characterised by multiple, competing problem frames involving overlapping networks of stakeholders. In this position paper, we describe three serious games that serve as a space for players (stakeholders) and researchers to jointly explore alternative solutions to complex resource management issues: the Water-Food-Energy Nexus Game (Nexus Game); the Narubu Game of Many Voices (Narubu Game); and the Forest Governance Game (Forest Game). The games contain instructive and reflexive mechanisms that prompt players to self-discover common challenges associated with complex nexus issues, including conflicting institutional mandates, social dilemmas, contending worldviews, and plural interpretations of science.