Juozas Augutis

Sustainable Development and Energy Security Level After Ignalina NPP Shutdown

Abstract The paper presents the investigation of the impact of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) shutdown on Lithuanian energy security. The system of energy security indicators, covering technical, economic and socio-political aspects is presented. The integral characteristic of these indicators shows the level of energy security. The paper analyses the Lithuanian energy security level in 2007. To make a comparison, the energy security level in 2010, after the shutdown of Ignalina NPP, when Lithuanian Power Plant in Elektrėnai becomes the main electricity producer, is forecasted. Two alternatives are analysed: Lithuanian Power Plant uses either gas or heavy fuel oil for electricity production. The security level of each indicator, each indicator block and the total security level are presented as the result. Energy security indicators, which increased or decreased after the shutdown of Ignalina NPP, are analysed, including the indicators which have had the greatest impact on the change in energy securit...

Dynamic reliability and risk assessment of the accident localization system of the Ignalina NPP RBMK-1500 reactor

Abstract The paper presents reliability and risk analysis of the RBMK-1500 reactor accident localization system (ALS) (confinement), which prevents radioactive releases to the environment. Reliability of the system was estimated and compared by two methods: the conventional fault tree method and an innovative dynamic reliability model, based on stochastic differential equations. Frequency of radioactive release through ALS was also estimated. The results of the study indicate that conventional fault tree modeling techniques in this case apply high degree of conservatism in the system reliability estimates. One of the purposes of the ALS reliability study was to demonstrate advantages of the dynamic reliability analysis against the conventional fault/event tree methods. The Markovian framework to deal with dynamic aspects of system behavior is presented. Although not analyzed in detail, the framework is also capable of accounting for non-constant component failure rates. Computational methods are proposed to solve stochastic differential equations, including analytical solution, which is possible only for relatively small and simple systems. Other numerical methods, like Monte Carlo and numerical schemes of differential equations are analyzed and compared. The study is finalized with concluding remarks regarding both the studied system reliability and computational methods used.

Criticality assessment of energy infrastructure

After the last major accidents in the energy sector of the last decade (USA and Canada (2003), India (2012), Russian-Ukrainian (2009)), energy infrastructure criticality assessment has become one of the most important issues. It has become the topical subject of the economy and national security in all countries. There is no single measure unit for the assessment of critical infrastructure with respect to “interdependency” among critical infrastructure sectors. This paper proposes to use criticality of infrastructure element as a measure to assess the importance of considered element to the normal activity of all sectors of infrastructure. The pilot numerical simulation of heat and electricity infrastructure was performed to demonstrate the implementation of the application of developed method for the assessment of infrastructure functionality and criticality.

Assessment of Lithuanian power supply security depending on nuclear energy

The Lithuanian energy sector is one of the most significant and problematic branches of its economic sector. One of the main threats to the security of the power supply in Lithuania is the closure of the Ignalina nuclear power plant (NPP). The Lithuanian power supply is assessed in terms of security indicators in this paper. Indicators are the parameters of the nuclear chain. A system of 22 indicators was formed in the study. The indicators were divided into four blocks: technical, economical, socio-political, and environmental. Threshold values of some indicators, employed in simulations, were obtained using an expert assessment and functional interdependences methods. In this paper the security level of the Lithuanian power supply from a nuclear energy point of view is determined.

Ignalina NPP RBMK-1500 gas gap evaluation

This paper presents Ignalina NPP Unit 1 RBMK-1500 reactor core lifetime analysis. The closure of the gas gap between the pressure tubes and the graphite bricks is one of the criteria for the evaluation of the reactor core lifetime. The rate of closure of the approximately 1.5 mm gaps between the pressure tubes and the graphite is largely a function of accumulated fast neutron dose and graphite operating temperatures. The main task of this paper is development of strategy and methodology for gas gap closure evaluation.

Flood Forecast Model and Probabilistic Analysis

This paper presents two probabilistic methods applications for extreme floods analysis and the individual flood forecast model. Case study numerical results are presented and some compared with the similar ones published in literature.

Lithuanian energy security level assessment based on indicator dependence

The issue of energy security has recently become especially important and problematic in Lithuania. Prior to 2010, Lithuania was a nuclear power energy producing country; however the second (last) unit of Ignalina NPP was shutdown at the end of 2009. Thus, Lithuania is currently producing a part of electricity in its thermal power plants and imports the other part. The purpose of this paper is to assess Lithuanian energy security level taking into account various security indicators whose values were obtained from statistical data. The indicator system was divided into three blocks, namely: technical, economical and socio-political, and each block was divided into groups. As the indicators, ascribed to groups, are interdependent, these dependencies were invoked for the calculation of the weights of indicators. Additionally, the paper presents pilot calculations and the comparison of energy security level in Lithuania in 2007, 2010 and after the construction of a liquefied natural gas terminal.

Dynamic Model For Energy Security LevelAssessment

Effective functioning of the energy sector is very important for the economy of every modern state. Thus, energy security is an inseparable part of the total economic security of the state. Energy security indicators were constructed for the investigation of the Lithuanian energy security level. The purpose of the paper is to construct a dynamic model for energy security level assessment. Dynamic model of indicators will enable us to forecast the Lithuanian energy security level according to different factors, such as building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, power interconnections between Lithuania and Poland (LitPolLink), etc. Since technical parameters of new objects are not exactly known, these uncertainties should be reflected in the initial conditions of a differential equations system. Thus, in such conditions, the values of indicators are random variables. The paper presents a model of dynamic indicators and pilot calculations.

Lithuanian energy security: annual review 2012–2013

Online ISSN 2335-7045. Lygiagretus leidinys: Lietuvos energetinis saugumas : metinė apžvalga 2015-2016 (liet. k.). ISSN 2335-7010

Lietuvos energetinis saugumas : metinė apžvalga 2014-2015

ISSN 2335-7037 (elektroninis). Toks pat leidinys yra isleistas anglų k. Lithuanian energy security : annual review 2014-2015. ISSN 2335-7029 (Print), ISSN 2335-7045 (Online)