Justin Bahl

Origins and evolutionary genomics of the 2009 swine-origin H1N1 influenza A epidemic

In March and early April 2009, a new swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) emerged in Mexico and the United States. During the first few weeks of surveillance, the virus spread worldwide to 30 countries (as of May 11) by human-to-human transmission, causing the World Health Organization to raise its pandemic alert to level 5 of 6. This virus has the potential to develop into the first influenza pandemic of the twenty-first century. Here we use evolutionary analysis to estimate the timescale of the origins and the early development of the S-OIV epidemic. We show that it was derived from several viruses circulating in swine, and that the initial transmission to humans occurred several months before recognition of the outbreak. A phylogenetic estimate of the gaps in genetic surveillance indicates a long period of unsampled ancestry before the S-OIV outbreak, suggesting that the reassortment of swine lineages may have occurred years before emergence in humans, and that the multiple genetic ancestry of S-OIV is not indicative of an artificial origin. Furthermore, the unsampled history of the epidemic means that the nature and location of the genetically closest swine viruses reveal little about the immediate origin of the epidemic, despite the fact that we included a panel of closely related and previously unpublished swine influenza isolates. Our results highlight the need for systematic surveillance of influenza in swine, and provide evidence that the mixing of new genetic elements in swine can result in the emergence of viruses with pandemic potential in humans.

Dating the emergence of pandemic influenza viruses.

Pandemic influenza viruses cause significant mortality in humans. In the 20th century, 3 influenza viruses caused major pandemics: the 1918 H1N1 virus, the 1957 H2N2 virus, and the 1968 H3N2 virus. These pandemics were initiated by the introduction and successful adaptation of a novel hemagglutinin subtype to humans from an animal source, resulting in antigenic shift. Despite global concern regarding a new pandemic influenza, the emergence pathway of pandemic strains remains unknown. Here we estimated the evolutionary history and inferred date of introduction to humans of each of the genes for all 20th century pandemic influenza strains. Our results indicate that genetic components of the 1918 H1N1 pandemic virus circulated in mammalian hosts, i.e., swine and humans, as early as 1911 and was not likely to be a recently introduced avian virus. Phylogenetic relationships suggest that the A/Brevig Mission/1/1918 virus (BM/1918) was generated by reassortment between mammalian viruses and a previously circulating human strain, either in swine or, possibly, in humans. Furthermore, seasonal and classic swine H1N1 viruses were not derived directly from BM/1918, but their precursors co-circulated during the pandemic. Mean estimates of the time of most recent common ancestor also suggest that the H2N2 and H3N2 pandemic strains may have been generated through reassortment events in unknown mammalian hosts and involved multiple avian viruses preceding pandemic recognition. The possible generation of pandemic strains through a series of reassortment events in mammals over a period of years before pandemic recognition suggests that appropriate surveillance strategies for detection of precursor viruses may abort future pandemics.

The Genesis and Evolution of H9N2 Influenza Viruses in Poultry from Southern China, 2000 to 2005

ABSTRACT H9N2 influenza viruses have become established in terrestrial poultry in different Asian countries over the last 2 decades. Our previous study demonstrated that quail harbor increasingly diverse novel H9N2 reassortants, including both Chicken/Beijing/1/94 (Ck/Bei-like) and Quail/Hong Kong/G1/97 (G1-like) viruses. However, since 1999, the genesis and evolution of H9N2 viruses in different types of poultry have not been investigated systematically. In the present study, H9N2 viruses isolated from chickens, ducks, and other minor poultry species were characterized genetically and antigenically. Our findings demonstrate that Ck/Bei-like H9N2 viruses have been introduced into many different types of poultry in southern China, including quail, partridges, chukar, pheasant, guinea fowl, and domestic ducks, while G1-like viruses were commonly detected in quail, less frequently detected in other minor poultry species, and not detected in chickens and ducks. Genetic analysis revealed 35 genotypes of H9N2 viruses, including 14 novel genotypes that have not been recognized before. Our results also suggested that two-way interspecies transmission exists between different types of poultry. Our study demonstrates that the long-term cocirculation of multiple virus lineages (e.g., H5N1 and H9N2 viruses) in different types of poultry has facilitated the frequent reassortment events that are mostly responsible for the current great genetic diversity in H9N2 and H5N1 influenza viruses in this region. This situation favors the emergence of influenza viruses with pandemic potential.

Long-term evolution and transmission dynamics of swine influenza A virus.

Swine influenza A viruses (SwIV) cause significant economic losses in animal husbandry as well as instances of human disease and occasionally give rise to human pandemics, including that caused by the H1N1/2009 virus. The lack of systematic and longitudinal influenza surveillance in pigs has hampered attempts to reconstruct the origins of this pandemic. Most existing swine data were derived from opportunistic samples collected from diseased pigs in disparate geographical regions, not from prospective studies in defined locations, hence the evolutionary and transmission dynamics of SwIV are poorly understood. Here we quantify the epidemiological, genetic and antigenic dynamics of SwIV in Hong Kong using a data set of more than 650 SwIV isolates and more than 800 swine sera from 12 years of systematic surveillance in this region, supplemented with data stretching back 34 years. Intercontinental virus movement has led to reassortment and lineage replacement, creating an antigenically and genetically diverse virus population whose dynamics are quantitatively different from those previously observed for human influenza viruses. Our findings indicate that increased antigenic drift is associated with reassortment events and offer insights into the emergence of influenza viruses with epidemic potential in swine and humans.

Evolutionary Dynamics and Emergence of Panzootic H5N1 Influenza Viruses

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus lineage has undergone extensive genetic reassortment with viruses from different sources to produce numerous H5N1 genotypes, and also developed into multiple genetically distinct sublineages in China. From there, the virus has spread to over 60 countries. The ecological success of this virus in diverse species of both poultry and wild birds with frequent introduction to humans suggests that it is a likely source of the next human pandemic. Therefore, the evolutionary and ecological characteristics of its emergence from wild birds into poultry are of considerable interest. Here, we apply the latest analytical techniques to infer the early evolutionary dynamics of H5N1 virus in the population from which it emerged (wild birds and domestic poultry). By estimating the time of most recent common ancestors of each gene segment, we show that the H5N1 prototype virus was likely introduced from wild birds into poultry as a non-reassortant low pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus and was not generated by reassortment in poultry. In contrast, more recent H5N1 genotypes were generated locally in aquatic poultry after the prototype virus (A/goose/Guangdong/1/96) introduction occurred, i.e., they were not a result of additional emergence from wild birds. We show that the H5N1 virus was introduced into Indonesia and Vietnam 3–6 months prior to detection of the first outbreaks in those countries. Population dynamics analyses revealed a rapid increase in the genetic diversity of A/goose/Guangdong/1/96 lineage viruses from mid-1999 to early 2000. Our results suggest that the transmission of reassortant viruses through the mixed poultry population in farms and markets in China has selected HPAI H5N1 viruses that are well adapted to multiple hosts and reduced the interspecies transmission barrier of those viruses.

The development and genetic diversity of H5N1 influenza virus in China, 1996-2006.

Since it was first detected in 1996, the Goose/Guangdong/1/1996 (Gs/GD) H5N1 influenza virus and its reassortants have spread to over 60 countries, with over 20 distinct genetic reassortants previously recognized. However, systematic analysis of their interrelationship and the development of genetic diversity have not been explored. As each of those reassortants was first detected in China, here 318 full-length H5N1 virus genomes isolated from 1996 to 2006 in this region were phylogenetically analyzed. Our findings revealed two major group reassortment events in 2001 and 2002 that were responsible for the generation of the majority of the 44 distinct Gs/GD genotypes identified, excepting those 1997 variants. Genotype replacement and emergence occurred continually, with 34 transient genotypes detected while only 10 variants were persistent. Two major replacements of predominant genotypes were also observed: genotype B replaced by Z in 2002 and then genotype Z replaced by the now predominant genotype V in 2005.

Temporally structured metapopulation dynamics and persistence of influenza A H3N2 virus in humans.

Populations of seasonal influenza virus experience strong annual bottlenecks that pose a considerable extinction risk. It has been suggested that an influenza source population located in tropical Southeast or East Asia seeds annual temperate epidemics. Here we investigate the seasonal dynamics and migration patterns of influenza A H3N2 virus by analysis of virus samples obtained from 2003 to 2006 from Australia, Europe, Japan, New York, New Zealand, Southeast Asia, and newly sequenced viruses from Hong Kong. In contrast to annual temperate epidemics, relatively low levels of relative genetic diversity and no seasonal fluctuations characterized virus populations in tropical Southeast Asia and Hong Kong. Bayesian phylogeographic analysis using discrete temporal and spatial characters reveal high rates of viral migration between urban centers tested. Although the virus population that migrated between Southeast Asia and Hong Kong persisted through time, this was dependent on virus input from temperate regions and these tropical regions did not maintain a source for annual H3N2 influenza epidemics. We further show that multiple lineages may seed annual influenza epidemics, and that each region may function as a potential source population. We therefore propose that the global persistence of H3N2 influenza A virus is the result of a migrating metapopulation in which multiple different localities may seed seasonal epidemics in temperate regions in a given year. Such complex global migration dynamics may confound control efforts and contribute to the emergence and spread of antigenic variants and drug-resistant viruses.

Dengue subgenomic RNA binds TRIM25 to inhibit interferon expression for epidemiological fitness

Orchestrating a viral takeover For some pathogenic viruses, outbreaks occur when a new viral strain emerges and displaces the endemic strain. How such a takeover occurs at a molecular level, however, remains an open question. Manokaran et al. examined one example, the emergence of a new clade of dengue virus (DENV) that caused an outbreak in Puerto Rico in 1994. The epidemic strain produced elevated amounts of subgenomic flavivirus RNA (sfRNA), a viral noncoding RNA, relative to amounts of genomic viral RNA. sfRNA bound to and inhibited TRIM25, a protein important for activating the hosts antiviral response, and so by reducing host immunity was able to increase its own fitness. Science, this issue p. 217 Elevated amounts of a viral noncoding RNA that suppresses host immunity likely led to an outbreak of dengue virus. The global spread of dengue virus (DENV) infections has increased viral genetic diversity, some of which appears associated with greater epidemic potential. The mechanisms governing viral fitness in epidemiological settings, however, remain poorly defined. We identified a determinant of fitness in a foreign dominant (PR-2B) DENV serotype 2 (DENV-2) clade, which emerged during the 1994 epidemic in Puerto Rico and replaced an endemic (PR-1) DENV-2 clade. The PR-2B DENV-2 produced increased levels of subgenomic flavivirus RNA (sfRNA) relative to genomic RNA during replication. PR-2B sfRNA showed sequence-dependent binding to and prevention of tripartite motif 25 (TRIM25) deubiquitylation, which is critical for sustained and amplified retinoic acid–inducible gene 1 (RIG-I)–induced type I interferon expression. Our findings demonstrate a distinctive viral RNA–host protein interaction to evade the innate immune response for increased epidemiological fitness.

Establishment of Influenza A Virus (H6N1) in Minor Poultry Species in Southern China

ABSTRACT An H6N1 virus, A/teal/Hong Kong/W312/97 (W312), was isolated during the “bird flu” incident in Hong Kong in 1997. Genetic analysis suggested that this virus might be the progenitor of the A/Hong Kong/156/97 (HK/97) H5N1 virus, as seven of eight gene segments of those viruses had a common source. Continuing surveillance in Hong Kong showed that a W312-like virus was prevalent in quail and pheasants in 1999; however, the further development of H6N1 viruses has not been investigated since 2001. Here we report influenza virus surveillance data collected in southern China from 2000 to 2005 that show that H6N1 viruses have become established and endemic in minor poultry species and replicate mainly in the respiratory tract. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that all H6N1 isolates had W312-like hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes. However, reassortment of internal genes between different subtype virus lineages, including H5N1, H9N2, and other avian viruses, generated multiple novel H6N1 genotypes in different types of poultry. These novel H6N1/N2 viruses are double, triple, or even quadruple reassortants. Reassortment between a W312-like H6N1 virus and an A/quail/Hong Kong/G1/97 (HK/97)-like H9N2 virus simultaneously generated novel H6N2 subtype viruses that were persistent in poultry. Molecular analyses suggest that W312-like viruses may not be the precursors of HK/97 virus but reassortants from an HK/97-like virus and another unidentified H6 subtype virus. These results provide further evidence of the pivotal role of the live poultry market system of southern China in generating increased genetic diversity in influenza viruses in this region.

Characterization of avian influenza viruses A (H5N1) from wild birds, Hong Kong, 2004-2008

Repeated detection of subclade 2.3.2 viruses in nonpasserine birds from different regions suggests possible establishment of this lineage in wild bird species.