Justin Jager

Adolescent Risk Factors for Adult Alcohol Use and Abuse: Stability and Change of Predictive Value across Early and Middle Adulthood

AIMS To examine age-18 risk factors for alcohol use and heavy drinking during early (ages 22 and 26) and middle (age 35) adulthood, and for symptoms of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) in middle adulthood. DESIGN Nationally representative samples of US adolescents in their senior year of secondary school (age 18) were followed into middle adulthood. Structural equation models estimated the associations between age-18 characteristics and current drinking and heavy drinking at ages 22, 26 and 35 and symptoms of AUDs at age 35. PARTICIPANTS The sample consisted of 21,137 respondents from 11 senior year cohorts (1976-86) from the Monitoring the Future study. FINDINGS Many predictor variables had stable associations with alcohol use over time, although their ability to explain variance in alcohol use declined with increasing time lags. Being white predicted alcohol use, but not symptoms of AUDs. Parental drinking, risk taking and use of cigarettes and marijuana predicted heavy drinking to age 35. Planning to attend college predicted more heavy drinking at age 22 and less frequent heavy drinking by mid-life. High school theft and property damage predicted later AUD symptoms. Most associations were invariant across gender, with variations typically taking the form of stronger associations between predictors and alcohol use for men. Invariance in findings across cohorts indicates that results reflect general developmental trends rather than specific historically bounded ones. CONCLUSIONS Many adolescent individual and contextual characteristics remain important predictors of adult alcohol use and abuse, and their predictive impact varies as a function of age and type of alcohol outcome. These associations are largely equivalent across gender and cohort, thus reflecting robust developmental linkages.

Estimating and interpreting latent variable interactions: A tutorial for applying the latent moderated structural equations method

Latent variables are common in psychological research. Research questions involving the interaction of two variables are likewise quite common. Methods for estimating and interpreting interactions between latent variables within a structural equation modeling framework have recently become available. The latent moderated structural equations (LMS) method is one that is built into Mplus software. The potential utility of this method is limited by the fact that the models do not produce traditional model fit indices, standardized coefficients, or effect sizes for the latent interaction, which renders model fitting and interpretation of the latent variable interaction difficult. This article compiles state-of-the-science techniques for assessing LMS model fit, obtaining standardized coefficients, and determining the size of the latent interaction effect in order to create a tutorial for new users of LMS models. The recommended sequence of model estimation and interpretation is demonstrated via a substantive example and a Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, extensions of this method are discussed, such as estimating quadratic effects of latent factors and interactions between latent slope and intercept factors, which hold significant potential for testing and advancing developmental theories.

Changes in the Relation of Self-Efficacy Beliefs and Behaviors Across Development

Many social science theories that examine the connection between beliefs and behaviors assume that belief constructs will predict behaviors similarly across development. Converging research implies that this assumption may not be tenable across all ages or all belief constructs. Thus, to test this implication, the relation between behavior and beliefs about the self was examined in 2 independent data sets with 2 different constructs: aggression and achievement. The respondents were 6-18 years of age and predominately Caucasian. Results using quasi-simplex structural equation models suggest that self-beliefs become more strongly related to behavior as children grow older independent of the reliability of the measures used. Possible limitations in the use of self-report methodology with young children are discussed.

The Impact of Social Support Networks on Mental and Physical Health in the Transition to Older Adulthood: A Longitudinal, Pattern-Centered Approach.

Social support is a multidimensional construct that consists of the type of support, the direction of support, the sources or targets of support, and whether support is actual or potential. We used latent class analysis to uncover network types based on these dimensions and to examine the association between network types and well-being among 6,824 adults (M age = 54 at T1) in the two most recent waves (1992–1993 and 2003–2005) of the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. We found six classes of social support networks. Class membership at T1 significantly predicted changes in depressive symptomatology and self-rated health over time. Our findings are discussed in light of the utility of a pattern-centered approach for uncovering heterogeneity in the social networks of adults.

Historical variation in drug use trajectories across the transition to adulthood: the trend toward lower intercepts and steeper, ascending slopes.

This study examines historical variation in individual trajectories of heavy drinking and marijuana use from age 18 to 22. Unlike most studies that have examined cohort differences in drug use, it focuses on differences in both level of use and rates of change (growth). Nearly 39,000 youths from the high school classes of 1976-2004 were surveyed at biennial intervals between the ages of 18 and 22 as part of the national Monitoring the Future study. Between 1976 and 2004, adolescent heavy drinking decreased substantially. However, because the age 18-22 heavy drinking growth rate increased threefold for males and sixfold for females during this period, heavy drinking among 21- to 22-year-olds remained largely stable. The growth rate for marijuana use was more stable across cohorts, and historical declines in use were sizable across the entire 18-22 age band. Generally, historical variation in use was unrelated to college status and living arrangements as well as to historical changes in the distribution of young adult social roles. Findings suggest that historical fluctuations in use were less the result of proximal young adult factors and more the result of historical variation in distal adolescent factors, the effect of which diminished with age, especially for heavy drinking.

Trajectories of Achievement Within Race/Ethnicity: "Catching Up" in Achievement Across Time

ABSTRACT The achievement gap has long been the focus of educational research, policy, and intervention. The authors took a new approach to examining the achievement gap by examining achievement trajectories within each racial group. To identify these trajectories they used the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study–Kindergarten Cohort, which is a nationally representative sample of students in kindergarten through Grade 5. In the analyses, the authors found heterogeneity within each racial group in mathematics and reading achievement, suggesting that there are in fact achievement gaps within each race/ethnicity group. The authors also found that there are groups that catch up to the highest achieving groups by Grade 5, suggesting a positive impact of schooling on particular subgroups of children. The authors discuss the various trajectories that have been found in each racial group and the implications this has for future research on the achievement gap.

A Developmental Shift in Black-White Differences in Depressive Affect across Adolescence and Early Adulthood: The Influence of Early Adult Social Roles and Socio-Economic Status.

This study examined Black—White differences in growth of depressive affect using a longitudinal sample of middle-class, suburban U.S. subjects (n = 956) that spanned from adolescence to early adulthood. Specifically, this study examined whether Black—White differences in growth of depressive affect shift over time, and the extent to which that shift, if any, was associated with racial differences in the rate and mental health consequences of early adult social roles (e.g., living arrangements, work/college status, and single parenthood) and socioeconomic status (SES). As expected, growth in depressive affect pivoted around the onset of early adulthood, with the trajectory pivoting upward for Black Americans and downward for White Americans. Due to deficits in SES, the relation between challenging early adult social roles—under/unemployment in particular—and growth in depressive affect was more positive for Black Americans. This differential ‘‘vulnerability’’ appears to underlie racial differences in early adult growth (and by connection contribute to racial differences in growth pivot). The extent to which Black Americans were at a greater risk (relative to White Americans) for an upward pivot increased as the number of challenging roles increased. Black Americans facing only optimal early adult social roles were not at a greater risk, while those facing only challenging social roles were at the greatest risk.

Convergence and nonconvergence in the quality of adolescent relationships and its association with adolescent adjustment and young-adult relationship quality

With the aim of identifying and examining both convergence (matched relationship quality across one’s set of relationships) and nonconvergence (mixed relationship quality across one’s set of relationships), the present study used a pattern-centered approach to examine the different ways adolescent relationships pattern together among a large, national sample of U.S. adolescents (aged 13–19). The study also examined how adolescent adjustment and young-adult relationship quality varied across the different relationship patterns or constellations. The current study used latent class analysis and data from Add Health (n = 4,233), a national U.S. longitudinal study that spans adolescence and young adulthood, to uncover heterogeneity in adolescent relations with parents, friends, romantic partners, peers, and teachers. As predicted, patterns of both convergence and nonconvergence were found, though patterns of nonconvergence were more common than expected. Some patterns of nonconvergence appear more stable (i.e., similar pattern found during both adolescence and young adulthood) than others. Also, no “high” converging pattern was found, indicating that few adolescents have “first-rate” relations in every relational domain.

Historical variation in young adult binge drinking trajectories and its link to historical variation in social roles and minimum legal drinking age

This study examines historical variation in age 18 to 26 binge drinking trajectories, focusing on differences in both levels of use and rates of change (growth) across cohorts of young adults over 3 decades. As part of the national Monitoring the Future Study, over 64,000 youths from the high school classes of 1976 to 2004 were surveyed at biennial intervals between ages 18 and 26. We found that, relative to past cohorts, recent cohorts both enter the 18 to 26 age band engaging in lower levels and exit the 18 to 26 age band engaging in higher levels of binge drinking. The reason for this reversal is that, relative to past cohorts, binge drinking among recent cohorts accelerates more quickly across ages 18 to 22 and decelerates more slowly across ages 22 to 26. Moreover, we found that historical increases in minimum legal drinking age account for a portion of the historical decline in age 18 level, whereas historical variation in social role acquisition (e.g., marriage, parenthood, and employment) accounts for a portion of the historical acceleration in age 18 to 22 growth. We also found that historical variation in the age 18 to 22 and age 22 to 26 growth rates was strongly and positively connected, suggesting common mechanism(s) underlie historical variation of both growth rates. Findings were generally consistent across gender and indicate that historical time is an important source of individual differences in young adult binge drinking trajectories. Beyond binge drinking, historical time may also inform the developmental course of other young adult risk behaviors, highlighting the interplay of epidemiology and etiology.

II. MORE THAN JUST CONVENIENT: THE SCIENTIFIC MERITS OF HOMOGENEOUS CONVENIENCE SAMPLES

Despite their disadvantaged generalizability relative to probability samples, nonprobability convenience samples are the standard within developmental science, and likely will remain so because probability samples are cost-prohibitive and most available probability samples are ill-suited to examine developmental questions. In lieu of focusing on how to eliminate or sharply reduce reliance on convenience samples within developmental science, here we propose how to augment their advantages when it comes to understanding population effects as well as subpopulation differences. Although all convenience samples have less clear generalizability than probability samples, we argue that homogeneous convenience samples have clearer generalizability relative to conventional convenience samples. Therefore, when researchers are limited to convenience samples, they should consider homogeneous convenience samples as a positive alternative to conventional (or heterogeneous) convenience samples. We discuss future directions as well as potential obstacles to expanding the use of homogeneous convenience samples in developmental science.