Justin Leonard

Learning to coexist with wildfire

The impacts of escalating wildfire in many regions — the lives and homes lost, the expense of suppression and the damage to ecosystem services — necessitate a more sustainable coexistence with wildfire. Climate change and continued development on fire-prone landscapes will only compound current problems. Emerging strategies for managing ecosystems and mitigating risks to human communities provide some hope, although greater recognition of their inherent variation and links is crucial. Without a more integrated framework, fire will never operate as a natural ecosystem process, and the impact on society will continue to grow. A more coordinated approach to risk management and land-use planning in these coupled systems is needed.

Meteorological conditions and wildfire-related houseloss in Australia

Wildland fires or bushfires occurring under very severe weather conditions are likely to be destructive to infrastructure. This paper reports an analysis of the statistical relationship between house loss and the fire weather under which it occurred. A dataset was derived from 54 bushfires that occurred in Australia between 1957 and 2009, which resulted in the destruction of 8256 houses. The dataset was statistically compared with relevant local meteorological conditions, and a standardised calculation of the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) applied. The analysis highlights how house loss statistics in Australia are dominated by a few iconic events that have occurred during very intense fire weather with the majority of losses occurring on days when the FFDI exceeds 100. Virtually all of the house loss has occurred above the 99.5th percentile level in the distribution of daily FFDI for each of the regions considered. Regulatory tools will need to focus on the most appropriate fire weather potential of a local area in order to ensure that infrastructure is adequately designed. In Australia, little house loss has occurred on days where the FFDI did not exceed 50, suggesting that historic building practices may be maintained in regions where this level is not likely to be exceeded.

Incorporating vegetation attenuation in radiant heat flux modelling

Models of radiant heat flux (RHF) are critical for understanding wildfire behaviour and the effect a fire may have on homes and people. Various models have been presented in the literature for wildfire RHF, many being based on the Stephan–Boltzmann equation for radiative heat transfer. Most models simplify the fire and receiver interaction by considering a single fuel type at a given separation distance from a receiving point (e.g. on a building requiring protection). However, wildfire is an inherently spatial phenomenon, in that a fire may progress across the landscape towards a building across complex terrain and through spatially varying fuel types. This spatial variation influences the fire behaviour as well as the level of RHF incident on the building. In this study, we present methods for incorporating spatially varying topography and fuels into existing RHF modelling equations. In this way, we achieve a time-dependent profile of the RHF incident on homes, while accounting for attenuation due to fuels and topography that lie between the building and the fire front. The model is applied to the prediction of damage in a fire that occurred in South Australia in 2005. Although only coarse spatial information was available for determining the spatial distribution of fuels, modelled RHF was a significant indicator of house damage. Attenuation due to vegetation between homes and the fire was shown to reduce the modelled RHF exposure of homes. However, this was not shown to increase the significance of predicted house damage in the case of this fire event.

Mobile Field Data Collection for Post Bushfire Analysis and African Farmers

In recent years CSIRO has been trialling field data collection using mobile devices such as phones and tablets. Two recent tools that have been developed by CSIRO are the CSIRO Surveyor (Post Bushfire House Surveyor) and DroidFarmer. Challenges tackled include mapping field documents to mobile data through QR (Quick Response) codes, rapid input of survey data, accurate capture of GPS locations and offline operation. Throughout this paper we detail the design choices made for these systems. We give details of how well field data collection was performed and discuss our planned future developments in this space.

A 3 dimensional ray tracing approach to modelling bushfire radiant heat flux for houses using LiDar derived vegetation voxel data and quadratic polygonal fire fronts

This paper describes the development of vulnerability assessment methods using a new approach to estimate radiant heat flux (RHF) exposure and consequent house response at a landscape scale. The model uses a three dimensional representation of the landscape, house location, vegetation structure based on LiDar data and the landscape scale gridded fire arrival conditions as inputs. The report presents the exploratory implementation of the approach on the Pine Ridge Road region affected by the 7th of February 2009 bushfire in Victoria. The 3D RHF ray tracing model provides a more robust prediction of house loss through bushfire, provided the approach direction can be determined.