Justin P. Stachnik

Cloud-precipitation-radiation-dynamics interaction in global climate models: A snow and radiation interaction sensitivity experiment

Conventional global climate models (GCMs) often consider radiation interactions only with small-particle/suspended cloud mass, ignoring large-particle/falling and convective core cloud mass. We characterize the radiation and atmospheric circulation impacts of frozen precipitating hydrometeors (i.e., snow), using the National Center for Atmospheric Research coupled GCM, by conducting sensitivity experiments that turn off the radiation interaction with snow. The changes associated with the exclusion of precipitating hydrometeors exhibit a number differences consistent with biases in CMIP3 and CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 and Phase 5), including more outgoing longwave flux at the top of atmosphere and downward shortwave flux at the surface in the heavily precipitating regions. Neglecting the radiation interaction of snow increases the net radiative cooling near the cloud top with the resulting increased instability triggering more convection in the heavily precipitating regions of the tropics. In addition, the increased differential vertical heating leads to a weakening of the low-level mean flow and an apparent low-level eastward advection from the warm pool resulting in moisture convergence south of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and north of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). This westerly bias, with effective warm and moist air transport, might be a contributing factor in the models northeastward overextension of the SPCZ and the concomitant changes in sea surface temperatures, upward motion, and precipitation. Broader dynamical impacts include a stronger local meridional overturning circulation over the middle and east Pacific and commensurate changes in low and upper level winds, large-scale ascending motion, with a notable similarity to the systematic bias in this region in CMIP5 upper level zonal winds.

Total Heating Characteristics of the ISCCP Tropical and Subtropical Cloud Regimes

AbstractComposite profiles of the apparent heat source Q1 and moisture sink Q2 are calculated for the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) cloud regimes (or “weather states”) using sounding observations from 10 field campaigns comprising both tropical and subtropical domains. Distinct heating profiles were determined for each ISCCP cloud regime, ranging from strong, upper-tropospheric heating for mesoscale convective systems (WS1) to integrated cooling for populations typically associated with marine stratus and stratocumulus clouds (WS5, WS6, and WS7). Despite being primarily associated with thin cirrus, the corresponding regime (WS4) has heating maxima in the lower and midtroposphere due to the presence of underlying clouds. Regime-averaged Q2 profiles showed similar transitions with strong drying observed for deep convection and low-level moistening for marine boundary layer clouds. The derived profiles were generally similar over land and ocean with the notable exception of the fa...

Precursor Environmental Conditions Associated with the Termination of Madden-Julian Oscillation Events

AbstractThis study presents an analysis of the precursor environmental conditions related to the termination of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) events. A simple climatology is created using a real-time MJO monitoring index, documenting the locations and frequencies of MJO decay. Lead–lag composites of several atmospheric variables including temperature, moisture, and intraseasonal wind anomalies are generated from three reanalyses. There is remarkable agreement among the datasets with long-term, lower-tropospheric moisture deficits over the local domain best identifying termination events over the Indian Ocean. MJO termination in the Indian Ocean is also linked to a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) with possible lead times as much as 20 days prior to MJO decay.Statistically significant differences in the low-level vertical velocity and specific humidity are also identified more than 10 days in advance of MJO termination events in the western Pacific, though the differences here...

Characterizing tropical Pacific water vapor and radiative biases in CMIP5 GCMs: Observation‐based analyses and a snow and radiation interaction sensitivity experiment

Significant systematic biases in the moisture fields within the tropical Pacific trade wind regions are found in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3/CMIP5) against profile and total column water vapor (TotWV) estimates from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and TotWV from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager. Positive moisture biases occur in conjunction with significant biases of eastward low-level moisture convergence north of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and south of the Intertropical Convergence Zone—the V-shaped regions. The excessive moisture there is associated with overestimates of reflected upward shortwave (RSUT), underestimates of outgoing longwave radiation (RLUT) at the top of atmosphere (TOA), and underestimates of downward shortwave flux at the surface (RSDS) compared to Clouds and the Earths Energy System, Energy Balance and Filled data. We characterize the impacts of falling snow and its radiation interaction, which are not included in most CMIP5 models, on the moisture fields using the National Center for Atmospheric Research-coupled global climate model (GCM). A number of differences in the model simulation without snow-radiation interactions are consistent with biases in the CMIP5 simulations. These include effective low-level eastward/southeastward wind and surface wind stress anomalies, and an increase in TotWV, vertical profile of moisture, and cloud amounts in the V-shaped region. The anomalous water vapor and cloud amount might be associated with the model increase of RSUT and decrease of RLUT at TOA and decreased RSDS in clear and all sky in these regions. These findings hint at the importance of water vapor-radiation interactions in the CMIPS/CMIP5 model simulations that exclude the radiative effect of snow.

Evaluating MJO Event Initiation and Decay in the Skeleton Model using an RMM‐like Index

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) skeleton model is a low-order dynamic model that is capable of simulating many of the observed features of the MJO. This study develops a model-based “MJO” index that is similar to the well-known real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index to better facilitate comparison between the skeleton model and observational data. Multivariate and univariate empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses were performed on the convective heating and zonal wind data taken from the skeleton model for simulations forced with an idealized warm pool and observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The leading EOF modes indicated a wave number 1 convectively coupled circulation anomaly with zonal asymmetries that closely resembled the observed RMM EOFs, especially when the model was forced with observed SSTs. The RMM-like index was used to compute an MJO climatology and document the occurrence of primary, continuing, and terminating MJO events in the skeleton model. The overall amount of MJO activity and event lengths compared reasonably well to observations for such a simple model. Attempts at reconciling the observed geographic distribution of individual MJO initiation and termination events were not successful for the stochastic simulations, though stochasticity is necessary in order to produce composite MJOs that initiate and decay with time scales similar to observations. Finally, analysis indicates that the existence of slow-moving, eastward traveling waves with higher wave numbers (k ≈ 12) embedded within the large-scale flow often precedes MJO termination in the skeleton model.

Giant and Ultragiant Aerosol Particle Variability over the Eastern Great Lakes Region

Abstract Numerous studies have indicated the potential for giant and ultragiant aerosol particles to expedite the warm-rain process as a result of their extreme sizes. The central question regarding their importance is, Are they present in large enough numbers to influence the microphysics of the clouds significantly? Thus, quantification of these particles and their variability is paramount. New observations collected during the second Alliance Icing Research Study (AIRS II) are presented as evidence of the presence and variability of giant and ultragiant aerosol particles over a continental region—in this case, within the eastern Great Lakes region and parts of the midwestern United States and Canada during one month in winter 2003. Sources and factors contributing to the amount of these particles observed in the lower atmosphere were difficult to identify separately; future studies incorporating high-resolution weather modeling are likely needed.