Justine D. Shaw

Biodiversity redistribution under climate change : Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being

Consequences of shifting species distributions Climate change is causing geographical redistribution of plant and animal species globally. These distributional shifts are leading to new ecosystems and ecological communities, changes that will affect human society. Pecl et al. review these current and future impacts and assess their implications for sustainable development goals. Science, this issue p. eaai9214 BACKGROUND The success of human societies depends intimately on the living components of natural and managed systems. Although the geographical range limits of species are dynamic and fluctuate over time, climate change is impelling a universal redistribution of life on Earth. For marine, freshwater, and terrestrial species alike, the first response to changing climate is often a shift in location, to stay within preferred environmental conditions. At the cooler extremes of their distributions, species are moving poleward, whereas range limits are contracting at the warmer range edge, where temperatures are no longer tolerable. On land, species are also moving to cooler, higher elevations; in the ocean, they are moving to colder water at greater depths. Because different species respond at different rates and to varying degrees, key interactions among species are often disrupted, and new interactions develop. These idiosyncrasies can result in novel biotic communities and rapid changes in ecosystem functioning, with pervasive and sometimes unexpected consequences that propagate through and affect both biological and human communities. ADVANCES At a time when the world is anticipating unprecedented increases in human population growth and demands, the ability of natural ecosystems to deliver ecosystem services is being challenged by the largest climate-driven global redistribution of species since the Last Glacial Maximum. We demonstrate the serious consequences of this species redistribution for economic development, livelihoods, food security, human health, and culture, and we document feedbacks on climate itself. As with other impacts of climate change, species range shifts will leave “winners” and “losers” in their wake, radically reshaping the pattern of human well-being between regions and different sectors and potentially leading to substantial conflict. The pervasive impacts of changes in species distribution transcend single systems or dimensions, with feedbacks and linkages between multiple interacting scales and through whole ecosystems, inclusive of humans. We argue that the negative effects of climate change cannot be adequately anticipated or prepared for unless species responses are explicitly included in decision-making and global strategic frameworks. OUTLOOK Despite mounting evidence for the pervasive and substantial impacts of a climate-driven redistribution of Earth’s species, current global goals, policies, and international agreements fail to account for these effects. With the predicted intensification of species movements and their diverse societal and environmental impacts, awareness of species “on the move” should be incorporated into local, regional, and global assessments as standard practice. This will raise hope that future targets—whether they be global sustainability goals, plans for regional biodiversity maintenance, or local fishing or forestry harvest strategies—can be achievable and that society is prepared for a world of universal ecological change. Human society has yet to appreciate the implications of unprecedented species redistribution for life on Earth, including for human lives. Even if greenhouse gas emissions stopped today, the responses required in human systems to adapt to the most serious effects of climate-driven species redistribution would be massive. Meeting these challenges requires governance that can anticipate and adapt to changing conditions, as well as minimize negative consequences. As the global climate changes, human well-being, ecosystem function, and even climate itself are increasingly affected by the shifting geography of life. Climate-driven changes in species distributions, or range shifts, affect human well-being both directly (for example, through emerging diseases and changes in food supply) and indirectly (by degrading ecosystem health). Some range shifts even create feedbacks (positive or negative) on the climate system, altering the pace of climate change. Distributions of Earth’s species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals.

Challenges to the Future Conservation of the Antarctic

Changing environments and resource demands present challenges to Antarctic conservation. The Antarctic Treaty System, acknowledged as a successful model of cooperative regulation of one of the globes largest commons (1), is under substantial pressure. Concerns have been raised about increased stress on Antarctic systems from global environmental change and growing interest in the regions resources (2, 3). Although policy-makers may recognize these challenges, failure to respond in a timely way can have substantial negative consequences. We provide a horizon scan, a systematic means for identifying emerging trends and assisting decision-makers in identifying policies that address future challenges (2, 3). Previous analyses of conservation threats in the Antarctic have been restricted to matters for which available evidence is compelling (4). We reconsider these concerns because they might escalate quickly, judging from recent rapid environmental change in parts of Antarctica and increasing human interest in the region (see the map). We then focus on a more distant time horizon.

Ontogenetic shifts in plant interactions vary with environmental severity and affect population structure

Environmental conditions and plant size may both alter the outcome of inter-specific plant-plant interactions, with seedlings generally facilitated more strongly than larger individuals in stressful habitats. However, the combined impact of plant size and environmental severity on interactions is poorly understood. Here, we tested explicitly for the first time the hypothesis that ontogenetic shifts in interactions are delayed under increasingly severe conditions by examining the interaction between a grass, Agrostis magellanica, and a cushion plant, Azorella selago, along two severity gradients. The impact of A. selago on A. magellanica abundance, but not reproductive effort, was related to A. magellanica size, with a trend for delayed shifts towards more negative interactions under greater environmental severity. Intermediate-sized individuals were most strongly facilitated, leading to differences in the size-class distribution of A. magellanica on the soil and on A. selago. The A. magellanica size-class distribution was more strongly affected by A. selago than by environmental severity, demonstrating that the plant-plant interaction impacts A. magellanica population structure more strongly than habitat conditions. As ontogenetic shifts in plant-plant interactions cannot be assumed to be constant across severity gradients and may impact species population structure, studies examining the outcome of interactions need to consider the potential for size- or age-related variation in competition and facilitation.

Antarctica's Protected Areas Are Inadequate, Unrepresentative, and at Risk

Global comparisons show that Antarcticas terrestrial biodiversity is poorly protected. Existing protected areas are inadequate, unrepresentative, and threatened by increasing human activity.

Conservation of Southern Ocean Islands: invertebrates as exemplars.

The Southern Ocean Islands (SOI) have an exceptionally high conservation status, and human activity on the islands is low by comparison with more tropical islands. In consequence, overexploitation, pollution and habitat destruction have had little influence on the invertebrate biotas of the islands, although overexploitation of pelagic species has the potential for an indirect influence via reduction of nutrient inputs to the terrestrial systems. By contrast, invasive alien species, the local effects of global climate change, and interactions between them are having large impacts on invertebrate populations and, as a consequence, on ecosystem functioning. Climate change is not only having direct impacts on indigenous invertebrates, but also seems to be promoting the ease of establishment of new alien invertebrate species. It is also contributing to population increases of invertebrate alien species already on the islands, sometimes with pronounced negative consequences for indigenous species and ecosystem functioning. Moreover, alien plants and mammals are also affecting indigenous invertebrate populations, often with climate change expected to exacerbate the impacts. Although the conservation requirements are reasonably well-understood for terrestrial systems, knowledge of freshwater and marine near-shore systems is inadequate. Nonetheless, what is known for terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems suggests that ongoing conservation of SOI invertebrates requires intervention from the highest political levels internationally, to slow climate change, to local improvements of quarantine measures to reduce the rates and impacts of biological invasions.

Polar lessons learned: Long-term management based on shared threats in Arctic and Antarctic environments

The Arctic and Antarctic polar regions are subject to multiple environmental threats, arising from both local and ex-situ human activities. We review the major threats to polar ecosystems including the principal stressor, climate change, which interacts with and exacerbates other threats such as pollution, fisheries overexploitation, and the establishment and spread of invasive species. Given the lack of progress in reducing global atmospheric greenhouse-gas emissions, we suggest that managing the threats that interact synergistically with climate change, and that are potentially more tractable, is all the more important in the short to medium term for polar conservation. We show how evidence-based lessons learned from scientific research can be shared between the poles on topics such as contaminant mitigation, biosecurity protocols to reduce species invasions, and the regulation of fisheries and marine environments. Applying these trans-polar lessons in tandem with expansion of international cooperation could substantially improve environmental management in both the Arctic and Antarctic.

Initiating dialogue between scientists and managers of biological invasions

We describe an initiative to improve the flow of information between researchers and managers as part of two international scientific symposia on biological invasions held in South Africa in 2008 and 2009. Formal workshops and information sessions for land managers were run during the symposia. At the end of each symposium, the managers ran dedicated question-and-answer sessions on the research they felt was needed to improve their work. We discuss the potential of such interventions to increase interaction and awareness between researchers and managers of biological invasions. The symposia certainly provided the managers with opportunities to think about broader issues and develop contacts, but problems with terminology use and the lack of solutions specific to their context tempered the value of their experience. Conversely, researchers at times under-estimated the managers perceived relevance of their presentations to management. The structured and facilitated attendance of managers of invasive plants at international conferences on invasion biology is one mechanism for at least narrowing “the gap” between science and management.

Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity occurs almost exclusively in ice-free areas that cover less than 1% of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, ice-free areas could expand by over 17,000 km2 by the end of the century, close to a 25% increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the effects on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesize that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.

Climate change and elevational diversity capacity: do weedy species take up the slack?

Climate change leads to species range shifts and consequently to changes in diversity. For many systems, increases in diversity capacity have been forecast, with spare capacity to be taken up by a pool of weedy species moved around by humans. Few tests of this hypothesis have been undertaken, and in many temperate systems, climate change impacts may be confounded by simultaneous increases in human-related disturbance, which also promote weedy species. Areas to which weedy species are being introduced, but with little human disturbance, are therefore ideal for testing the idea. We make predictions about how such diversity capacity increases play out across elevational gradients in non-water-limited systems. Then, using modern and historical data on the elevational range of indigenous and naturalized alien vascular plant species from the relatively undisturbed sub-Antarctic Marion Island, we show that alien species have contributed significantly to filling available diversity capacity and that increases in energy availability rather than disturbance are the probable underlying cause.

Mapping sub-Antarctic cushion plants using random forests to combine very high resolution satellite imagery and terrain modelling

Monitoring changes in the distribution and density of plant species often requires accurate and high-resolution baseline maps of those species. Detecting such change at the landscape scale is often problematic, particularly in remote areas. We examine a new technique to improve accuracy and objectivity in mapping vegetation, combining species distribution modelling and satellite image classification on a remote sub-Antarctic island. In this study, we combine spectral data from very high resolution WorldView-2 satellite imagery and terrain variables from a high resolution digital elevation model to improve mapping accuracy, in both pixel- and object-based classifications. Random forest classification was used to explore the effectiveness of these approaches on mapping the distribution of the critically endangered cushion plant Azorella macquariensis Orchard (Apiaceae) on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island. Both pixel- and object-based classifications of the distribution of Azorella achieved very high overall validation accuracies (91.6–96.3%, κ = 0.849–0.924). Both two-class and three-class classifications were able to accurately and consistently identify the areas where Azorella was absent, indicating that these maps provide a suitable baseline for monitoring expected change in the distribution of the cushion plants. Detecting such change is critical given the threats this species is currently facing under altering environmental conditions. The method presented here has applications to monitoring a range of species, particularly in remote and isolated environments.