Justine Murray

The proposed release of the yellow fever mosquito, Aedes aegypti containing a naturally occurring strain of Wolbachia pipientis, a question of regulatory responsibility

In 2010 a proposal to release the yellow fever mosquito, Aedes aegypti, containing an intracellular symbiotic bacterium, Wolbachia, as a means of reducing the severity of outbreaks of dengue fever was lodged in Australia. The mosquito was infected with Wolbachia through embryonic microinjection. This proposal uncovered a gap in the regulatory process normally used to assess the release of species into Australia. Firstly, while the association between the mosquito and the bacterium was new, both species naturally occurred in Australia and so legislation governing the introduction of new species into Australia was ruled not relevant. Secondly, the infection of the mosquito with Wolbachia did not involve gene technology and so was not subject to legislation governing the approval of genetically modified organisms. The solution came through the decision to use existing legislation to regulate Wolbachia as a veterinary chemical product. This was a good outcome as it overcame the barrier that a lack of regulatory oversight may have posed to field trials taking place. Furthermore, the approach taken demonstrated a very high level of scrutiny with regard to biosafety. This case is an example of how science is leading to advances that outstrip existing regulatory frameworks. An acceptable regulatory solution has been found, but the novelty of the science is such that the appropriateness of the regulatory process now needs to be reviewed to ensure that it is no more onerous for both the proponents and the regulators than it needs to be.

Ecological aspects of biosecurity surveillance design for the detection of multiple invasive animal species

Complex surveillance problems are common in biosecurity, such as prioritizing detection among multiple invasive species, specifying risk over a heterogeneous landscape, combining multiple sources of surveillance data, designing for specified power to detect, resource management, and collateral effects on the environment. Moreover, when designing for multiple target species, inherent biological differences among species result in different ecological models underpinning the individual surveillance systems for each. Species are likely to have different habitat requirements, different introduction mechanisms and locations, require different methods of detection, have different levels of detectability, and vary in rates of movement and spread. Often there is a further challenge of a lack of knowledge, literature, or data, for any number of the above problems. Even so, governments and industry need to proceed with surveillance programs which aim to detect incursions in order to meet environmental, social and political requirements. We present an approach taken to meet these challenges in one comprehensive and statistically powerful surveillance design for non-indigenous terrestrial vertebrates on Barrow Island, a high conservation nature reserve off the Western Australian coast. Here, the possibility of incursions is increased due to construction and expanding industry on the island. The design, which includes mammals, amphibians and reptiles, provides a complete surveillance program for most potential terrestrial vertebrate invaders. Individual surveillance systems were developed for various potential invaders, and then integrated into an overall surveillance system which meets the above challenges using a statistical model and expert elicitation. We discuss the ecological basis for the design, the flexibility of the surveillance scheme, how it meets the above challenges, design limitations, and how it can be updated as data are collected as a basis for adaptive management.

Agricultural Weed Research: A Critique and Two Proposals

Abstract Two broad aims drive weed science research: improved management and improved understanding of weed biology and ecology. In recent years, agricultural weed research addressing these two aims has effectively split into separate subdisciplines despite repeated calls for greater integration. Although some excellent work is being done, agricultural weed research has developed a very high level of repetitiveness, a preponderance of purely descriptive studies, and has failed to clearly articulate novel hypotheses linked to established bodies of ecological and evolutionary theory. In contrast, invasive plant research attracts a diverse cadre of nonweed scientists using invasions to explore broader and more integrated biological questions grounded in theory. We propose that although studies focused on weed management remain vitally important, agricultural weed research would benefit from deeper theoretical justification, a broader vision, and increased collaboration across diverse disciplines. To initiate change in this direction, we call for more emphasis on interdisciplinary training for weed scientists, and for focused workshops and working groups to develop specific areas of research and promote interactions among weed scientists and with the wider scientific community.

Risk Associated with the Release of Wolbachia-Infected Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes into the Environment in an Effort to Control Dengue

Background In an effort to eliminate dengue, a successful technology was developed with the stable introduction of the obligate intracellular bacteria Wolbachia pipientis into the mosquito Aedes aegypti to reduce its ability to transmit dengue fever due to life shortening and inhibition of viral replication effects. An analysis of risk was required before considering release of the modified mosquito into the environment. Methods Expert knowledge and a risk assessment framework were used to identify risk associated with the release of the modified mosquito. Individual and group expert elicitation was performed to identify potential hazards. A Bayesian network (BN) was developed to capture the relationship between hazards and the likelihood of events occurring. Risk was calculated from the expert likelihood estimates populating the BN and the consequence estimates elicited from experts. Results The risk model for “Don’t Achieve Release” provided an estimated 46% likelihood that the release would not occur by a nominated time but generated an overall risk rating of very low. The ability to obtain compliance had the greatest influence on the likelihood of release occurring. The risk model for “Cause More Harm” provided a 12.5% likelihood that more harm would result from the release, but the overall risk was considered negligible. The efficacy of mosquito management had the most influence, with the perception that the threat of dengue fever had been eliminated, resulting in less household mosquito control, and was scored as the highest ranked individual hazard (albeit low risk). Conclusions The risk analysis was designed to incorporate the interacting complexity of hazards that may affect the release of the technology into the environment. The risk analysis was a small, but important, implementation phase in the success of this innovative research introducing a new technology to combat dengue transmission in the environment.

Elicitator: A User-Friendly, Interactive Tool to Support Scenario-Based Elicitation of Expert Knowledge

Expert elicitation is the process of determining what expert knowledge is relevant to support a quantitative analysis and then eliciting this information in a form that supports analysis or decision-making. The credibility of the overall analysis, therefore, relies on the credibility of the elicited knowledge. This, in turn, is determined by the rigor of the design and execution of the elicitation methodology, as well as by its clear communication to ensure transparency and repeatability. It is difficult to establish rigor when the elicitation methods are not documented, as often occurs in ecological research. In this chapter, we describe software that can be combined with a well-structured elicitation process to improve the rigor of expert elicitation and documentation of the results.