Jutta Kapfer

Resurveying historical vegetation data – opportunities and challenges

Background Resurveying historical vegetation plots has become more and more popular in recent years as it provides a unique opportunity to estimate vegetation and environmental changes over the past decades. Most historical plots, however, are not permanently marked and uncertainty in plot location, in addition to observer bias and seasonal bias, may add significant error to temporal change. These errors may have major implications for the reliability of studies on long-term environmental change and deserve closer attention of vegetation ecologists. Material & Methods Vegetation data obtained from the resurveying of non-permanently marked plots are assessed for their potential to study environmental-change effects on plant communities and the challenges the use of such data have to meet. We describe the properties of vegetation resurveys distinguishing basic types of plots according to relocation error, and we highlight the potential of such data types for studying vegetation dynamics and their drivers. Finally, we summarise the challenges and limitations of resurveying non-permanently marked vegetation plots for different purposes in environmental change research. Results and Conclusions Resampling error is caused by three main independent sources of error: error caused by plot relocation, observer bias, and seasonality bias. For relocation error, vegetation plots can be divided into permanent and non-permanent plots, while the latter are further divided into quasi-permanent (with approximate relocation) and non-traceable (with random relocation within a sampled area) plots. To reduce the inherent sources of error in resurvey data, the following precautions should be followed: (i) resurvey historical vegetation plots whose approximate plot location within a study area is known; (ii) consider all information available from historical studies in order to keep plot relocation errors low; (iii) resurvey at times of the year when vegetation development is comparable to the historical survey to control for seasonal variability in vegetation; (iv) keep a high level of experience of the observers to keep observer bias low; and (v) edit and standardise datasets before analyses.

Long-term vegetation stability in northern Europe as assessed by changes in species co-occurrences

Background: The effect of the anticipated climate change on the stability of vegetation and the factors underlying this stability are not well understood. Aims: Our objective was to quantify long-term vegetation changes in a range of habitats in northern Europe by exploring species co-occurrences and their links to diversity and productivity gradients. Methods: We re-sampled vegetation in 16 arctic, mountain and mire sites 20 to 90 years after the original inventories. A site-specific change in species assemblages (stability) was quantified using species co-occurrences. Using a randomisation test we tested whether the changes observed were significantly greater than those expected by chance. Relationships between patterns in vegetation stability and time between surveys, numbers of plots, or species diversity and proxies for productivity, were tested using regression analysis. Results: At most sites the changes in species co-occurrences of vascular plants and bryophytes were greater than those expected by chance. The changes observed were found to be unrelated to gradients in productivity or diversity. Conclusions: Changes in species co-occurrences are not strongly linked to diversity or productivity gradients in vegetation, suggesting that other gradients or site-specific factors (e.g. land use or species interactions) may be more important in controlling recent compositional shifts in vegetation in northern Europe.

Stability of alpine vegetation over 50 years in central Norway

Alpine vegetation is considered to be particularly sensitive to climate changes. Here we document changes in species richness, distribution and composition over the past 50 years by resurveying vegetation in Rondane, a well-studied alpine area in central Norway. We estimated changes in species occurrences, species richness and species’ realized optima to study relationships between vegetational and environmental change. We used a weighted average approach with elevation and indicator values for light, temperature, pH, moisture, nutrients and tolerance to snow-cover duration. Permutation tests, allowing for unequal sampling in the original survey and the resurvey, indicated whether vegetation changes were statistically significant. We found no significant change in the average number of species per plot since 1950. Of 21 species analysed for changes in frequency and realized optimum, ten showed statistically significant changes in frequency (six decreased, four increased), and six exhibited statistically significant changes in their optimum along the soil-pH gradient. Statistically significant optimum changes were found along the nutrient and light gradients (three species) and the elevation and snow-cover gradients (two species). No statistically significant changes were found along the temperature or moisture gradients. In comparison with other studies, our results suggest that recent climate changes have had a relatively low impact on alpine vegetation in the Rondane mountains. This is indicated by our species optimum analysis, which revealed few changes along gradients that can be directly linked to the climate (temperature and soil moisture) whereas most detected changes appear to be responses to factors related to soil pH. The relative constancy of species’ optima and hence species composition may be explained most parsimoniously by the species pool in the Rondane area, which consists largely of common and widespread species with wide ecological amplitudes and hence broad tolerances to environmental change.

Plant species composition shifts in the Tatra Mts as a response to environmental change: a resurvey study after 90 years

Mountain vegetation is often considered highly sensitive to climate and land-use changes due to steep environmental gradients determining local plant species composition. In this study we present plant species compositional shifts in the Tatra Mts over the past 90 years and discuss the potential drivers of the changes observed. Using historical vegetation studies of the region from 1927, we resurveyed 76 vegetation plots, recording the vascular flora of each plot using the same methodology as in the original survey. We used an indirect method to quantify plant species compositional shifts and to indicate which environmental gradients could be responsible for these shifts: by calculating shifts in estimated species optima as reflected in shifts in the ecological indicator values of co-occurring species. To find shifts in species composition, focusing on each vegetation type separately, we used ordination (DCA). The species optimum changed significantly for at least one of the tested environmental gradients for 26 of the 95 plant species tested; most of these species changed in terms of the moisture indicator value. We found that the strongest shifts in species composition were in mylonite grassland, snowbed and hygrophilous tall herb communities. Changes in precipitation and increase in temperature were found to most likely drive compositional shifts in vegetation resurveyed. It is likely that the combined effect of climate change and cessation of sheep grazing has driven a species composition shift in granite grasslands communities.

Long-term vegetation changes of treeless heath communities in northern Fennoscandia: Links to climate change trends and reindeer grazing

1Department of Ecology and Genetics, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland 2Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Tromsø, Norway 3Centre for Polar Ecology, University of South Bohemia, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic 4Department of Physiological Diversity, Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany 5German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany