Jyrki Kangas

Utilizing the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in SWOT analysis — a hybrid method and its application to a forest-certification case ☆

Abstract The present study examines a new hybrid method for improving the usability of SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis. A commonly used decision analysis method, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and its eigenvalue calculation framework are integrated with SWOT analysis. AHP’s connection to SWOT yields analytically determined priorities for the factors included in SWOT analysis and makes them commensurable. The aim in applying the hybrid method is to improve the quantitative information basis of strategic planning processes. The hybrid method was tested in connection with a Finnish case study on forest certification. In the case study, the results were presented in an illustrative way by utilizing the quantitative information achieved by the hybrid method. The results indicated that certification could be a potential strategic alternative in our case study farm. In addition, the needed pairwise comparisons were found useful, because they force the decision maker to think over the weights of the factors and to analyze the situation more precisely and in more depth.

Integrating spatial multi-criteria evaluation and expert knowledge for GIS-based habitat suitability modelling

Abstract GIS data processing and spatial analysis, together with modern decision analysis techniques, were used in this study to improve habitat suitability evaluation over large areas. Both empirical evaluation models and models based on expert knowledge can be applied in this approach. The habitat requirements of species were described as map layers within GIS so that each map layer represented one criterion. GIS was used as the platform in managing, combining and displaying the criterion data and also as a tool for producing new data, especially by utilising spatial analysis functions. Criterion standardisation, weighting and combining were accomplished by means of multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) methods, the theoretical background being based on the multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT). By using continuous priority and sub-priority functions in the evaluation, no classification of continuous attributes was needed and also non-linear relationships between habitat suitability and the attributes could be considered. Sensitivity analysis was applied to consider the temporal factor in the analysis and to find out the effect of different criteria weights on the spatial pattern of the suitability index. Changing the weights of permanent and time-changeable habitat factors shifted the location of optimal habitats for the species. In the long run, permanent factors such as soil properties define the habitat potential, which is important to take into consideration; e.g. in forest management planning and species conservation. The method is illustrated by a case study in which habitat suitability maps were produced for an old-forest polypore, Skeletocutis odora .

The use of value focused thinking and the A'WOT hybrid method in tourism management.

Abstract Strategic planning which focuses on rural tourism is based fundamentally on the adjusting to changes in the operational environment. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis is a commonly used tool for analysing both the internal and external environments in order to attain a systematic approach and support for a decision situation. In this study, we show how some weaknesses of SWOT analysis can be avoided and how it can be elaborated upon in order to provide more comprehensive decision support. The approach is applied to the question of does local culture have the potential to be a success factor in rural tourism in two case areas, namely in the regions of Yla-Savo in Finland and Kassel in Germany. The research was based on expert interviews, which were structured according to the principles of value-focused thinking and A’WOT analysis. A’WOT is a hybrid method combining the well-known SWOT analysis and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). In this study, SMART techniques are applied in an A’WOT framework instead of the AHP. The objectives and the operating environment, i.e. the two major elements in any strategic management, were covered in the analysis. The results showed that local culture has the potential to be a success factor in rural tourism, in other forms of rural entrepreneurship, and also in the case study regions. Investments which enhance and strengthen local culture are recommended over those that utilise culture and traditions to make products in tourism business. Strengthening local culture opens up possibilities for future innovations and sustainable development. A strong culture and an awareness of ones own traditions form a natural foundation for innovations. Value-focused thinking used as a methodology to define the values and objectives along with A’WOT for strategic planning, provide good means of enhancing sustainable innovations.

Improving the quality of landscape ecological forest planning by utilising advanced decision-support tools

Abstract The quality of landscape ecological analyses and their integration with the multi-objective comparison of forest plans can be improved by making use of the decision-support methods, techniques, and tools produced by recent research on forest planning, as demonstrated in this study. Special attention is given to strengthening the ecological grounds of calculations through modelling expert knowledge, quantification of ecological evaluations, integration of different objectives and different phases of the planning process, and analysing the effects of uncertainty in ecological judgments on the final results. The planning process is illustrated by a case study. The landscape ecological approach is finding increasing application in practical forest planning, especially in boreal forestry. Unfortunately, gaps in the available ecological knowledge, and the inefficiency of the planning methods and tools used often lead to vague planning processes. In many cases, only methods originally developed for wood-production planning are still applied, and planning advances (e.g. multi-objective optimisation, Geographical Information Systems (GIS) tools, and modelling expert knowledge) are under-utilised. In this study, HERO heuristic multi-objective optimisation, GIS operations, pairwise comparisons techniques, and Bayesian analysis are applied in an integrated planning process. Efficient forest plan alternatives are generated for further consideration by utilising heuristic optimization and GIS. Given the multi-objective choice situation, the plans generated are holistically evaluated by means of multiple decision-support tools and techniques.

A heuristic optimization method for forest planning and decision making

The presented planning method searches for an optimal combination of treatment schedules for forest compartments by maximizing, in an iterative manner, an additive utility function. The variables o...

Probability, possibility and evidence: approaches to consider risk and uncertainty in forestry decision analysis

Abstract Uncertainty is an important issue in the support of any forestry decision. Forestry decision making today typically involves objectives and information concerning ecological, economic and social issues. The consequences of alternative forest management programmes might be hard to assess, and predictions and assessments always include uncertainty. Forestry decisions also often concern large areas, long time horizons and multiple stakeholders, which further complicates forest management planning and increases uncertainty involved in it. This paper deals with different definitions and classifications of uncertainty, sources of uncertainty, and theories and methodologies presented to deal with uncertainty. The aim is to provide readers with an overview of alternative approach for coping with uncertainty, especially from the viewpoint of forestry and natural resource management applications. Generally taken, there are two main conventional approaches, namely classical (frequentist) and Bayesian probability theory. These lead to either classical or Bayesian decision theory, respectively. In addition, uncertainty can be dealt with, for instance, using the fuzzy set theory. This theory mostly deals with uncertainty due to the ambiguity of concepts. So far, in decision support tools, probability and fuzzy set theory are the most common approaches. However, the possibility theory and the evidence theory, for instance, can also be relied upon when managing uncertainty. These theories deal with subjective beliefs and expert judgements. They are able to deal with partial information and pure ignorance. The counterparts to the classical decision rules based on these theories are presented, as well as some decision support methods designed using the approaches presented. Because of the manifold sources of uncertainty, all these approaches can have application in the support of forestry decisions.

An approach to public participation in strategic forest management planning

Abstract An application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is presented for taking public preferences into account in choosing the management strategy for a forest area. An illustrative example of the use of the approach is given, and some experiences in practical planning at Ruunaa conservation area in Eastern Finland are discussed. The approach can be applied to representative, as well as to participatory democracy approaches. The use of the approach is mainly discussed with regard to representative democracy. In the representative approach, a level of players consisting of interest groups is added into the decision hierarchy, just above the level of decision objectives. In the participatory approach, the level of players consists of citizens. By applying the approach, valuable information can be obtained about public values and their effects on the choice of management strategy as well as about possibilities to attain a compromise between conflicting interests.

Integrating biodiversity into forest management planning and decision-making

Abstract In this paper, an approach is presented for incorporating biological diversity into strategic forest management planning. Alternative management strategies are evaluated with respect to biodiversity using Santys ratio scale estimation method. Biodiversity consists of a variety of components, their importance depending on context, definition and the objectives of the decision-maker in question. In this study, biodiversity is decomposed into three characteristics: species richness, rarity and vulnerability of the species. Weights of the components of biodiversity are assessed on the grounds of pairwise comparisons between the importance of the components, made by an expert on conservation biology. Maximizing biodiversity is added as an objective to a decision hierarchy of a planning problem of multiple-use forestry. The weight of biodiversity, in relation to other objectives, is determined based on the preferences of the decision-maker. A case study is reported where biodiversity is integrated into forest management planning. The main problems in the application of the presented approach include, primarily, the lack of general agreement on operational definition of biodiversity, and, secondly, the lack of objective knowledge for evaluating decision alternatives with respect to components of biodiversity.

Internet and teledemocracy in participatory planning of natural resources management

Abstract The widespread availability of Internet connections and the everyday aspect of the use of data networks provide many opportunities also for exploiting in planning and decision-making processes. The Internet can serve as a fast two-way channel of information. The possibility to use direct democracy via data networks so that the communication is interactive is referred to as teledemocracy. Teledemocracy is one way of adding citizens’ possibilities to participate in decision making. It enables, for instance, problems resulting from geographical insularity and long distances to be reduced in participatory planning and decision making, and the rapid registering of large numbers of opinions directly to computer memory. In this paper, an application of participatory forest planning based on information networks is presented as well as experiences obtained in developing and using the application. Also the topics of teledemocracy and the possibilities to use information networks more generally in participatory planning are discussed. It is concluded that there are good chances for applying teledemocracy in participatory forest planning, and rapid on-going development in interactive telecommunication technology continuously increases its future potential. However, taking the technical and social facts of today into account, teledemocracy cannot replace other forms and channels of public participation. There are plenty of challenges to overcome before using information networks as the only communication channel in any application of democracy. Participation from afar in participatory forest planning does not need to compete or do away with direct participation, but instead it can be used to support and supplement traditional participatory and participation channels.

A multi-attribute preference model for evaluating the reforestation chain alternatives of a forest stand

Abstract This paper presents a method, based on multi-attribute utility theory, for choosing the reforestation chain in a forest stand. The method is developed mainly for analysing and supporting the decision-making of non-industrial forest landowners. By using the decision analysis model, all kinds of objectives, qualitative as well as quantitative, can be analytically dealt with, and alternative reforestation chains can be evaluated with regard both to overall utility and to each specific objective. The decision alternative which maximises overall utility is recommended as most suitable. Values of reforestation chain alternatives with regard to an objective which cannot be measured reliably enough using quantitative production functions are determined via preference functions describing the importance of making sub-choices of chains and the desirabilities of sub-choice alternatives, with regard to the objective in question. Parameters of preference functions are estimated on the grounds of pairwise comparisons between decision elements, using the eigenvalue method as presented by T.L. Saaty. Timber production values are estimated on the basis of the discounted value of net revenues. Based on the interpretation of the parameters of the preference model as marginal rates of substitution, wide-ranging sensitivity analyses can be carried out, e.g. on the effects of changing the weighting of objectives on the ranking of decision alternatives.