K. Grunow

Future Arctic temperature and ozone: The role of stratospheric composition changes

Using multidecadal simulations with the European Centre/Hamburg–Modular Earth Submodel System Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, the role of changing concentrations of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on Arctic springtime ozone was examined. The focus is on potential changes in the meteorological conditions relevant for Arctic ozone depletion. It is found that with rising GHG levels the lower Arctic stratosphere will cool significantly in early winter, while no significant temperature signal is identified later in winter or spring. A seasonal shift of the lowest polar minimum temperatures from late to early winter in the second part of the 21st century occurs. However, Arctic lower stratosphere temperatures do not seem to decline to new record minima. The future Arctic lower stratosphere vortex will have a longer lifetime, as a result of an earlier formation in autumn. No extended vortex persistence is found in spring due to enhanced dynamical warming by tropospheric wave forcing. Because of the dominant early winter cooling, largest accumulated polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) areas (APSC) are projected for the middle of the 21st century. A further increase of APSC toward the end of the 21st century is prevented by increased dynamical polar warming. EMAC suggests that in the near future, there is a chance of low Arctic springtime ozone in individual years; however, there is no indication of a formation of regular Arctic ozone holes. Toward the end of the 21st century, when ODSs will be close to the 1960 levels, further rising GHG levels will cause increased Arctic springtime ozone.

Quantification of source region influences on the ozone burden

Abstract A project was performed to quantify different influences on the ozone burden. It could be shown that large-scale meteorological influences determine a very large percentage of the ozone concentration. Local measures intended to reduce peak ozone concentrations in summer turn out to be not very effective as a result. The aim of this paper is to quantify regional emission influences on the ozone burden. The investigation of these influences is possible by comparison of the ozone (O3) and oxidant (Ox=O3+NO2) concentrations at high-elevation sites downwind and upwind of a source region by using back trajectories. It has been shown that a separation between large-scale influenced meteorological and regional ozone burdens at these sites is possible. This method is applied for an important emission area in Germany—the Ruhrgebiet. On average, no significant ozone contribution of this area to the regional ozone concentration could be found. A large part of the ozone concentration is highly correlated with synoptic weather systems, which exhibit a dominant influence on the local ozone concentrations. Significant contributions of related photochemical ozone formation of the source area of 13–15% have been found only during favourable meteorological situations, identified by the hourly maximum day temperature being above 25°C. This is important with respect to the EU daughter directive to EU 96/62/EC (Official Journal L296 (1996) 55) because Member States should explore the possibilities of local measures to avoid the exceedance of threshold values and, if effective local measures exist, to implement them.