K. Markakis

Climate change impact assessment of air pollution levels in bulgaria

The presented work is aiming at climate change impacts and vulnerability assessment in Bulgaria Climate change may affect exposures to air pollutants by affecting weather and thereby local and regional pollution concentrations Local weather patterns influence atmospheric chemical reactions and can also affect atmospheric transport and deposition processes. US EPA Models-3 System for a region with resolution of 10 km covering Bulgaria is exploited here The meteorological background is produced by the climatic version of ALADIN weather forecast system TNO emission inventory for 2000 is used The chemical boundary conditions are extracted from 50-km resolution runs over Europe made in Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece Calculations for the period 1991-2000 are performed, results presented in a study For year 2000, some scenarios are run, results compared with measured data.

Study of the Impact of an Intense Biomass Burning Event on the Air Quality in the Eastern Mediterranean

Aim of this work is to study the impact of the intense forest fires that tookplace in Greece at the end of summer 2007 on the air quality in the Eastern Mediterranean. For this reason the meteorological model MM5 and the photochemical model CAMx are applied over the study area with 10 km spatial resolution. CAMx model is implemented for two emission scenarios; with and without biomass burning emissions. High spatial resolution wildfire emission data are used that are based on the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3). The CAMx chemical boundary conditions are taken from the TM4 global model. The nonradiative impact on the composition of the atmosphere and on environmental indices (e.g. Aggregate Risk Index) is quantified in regional scale. The impact of the atmospheric processes on the air pollution levels due to the biomass burning event is also studied giving more emphasis on the boundary layer. The intense biomass burning event in the Eastern Mediterranean at the end of August 2007 results in an enhancement of the CO, NOx and PM2.5 concentrations over almost all the study area, which can range from several times to two order of magnitude over the fire hot spots. The increases in O3 levels are less pronounced and are found mainly downwind the burnt areas. On the 25th August 2007, when fire counts in the study area are maximum, in the daytime boundary layer, the inclusion of biomass burning emissions results in a change of the chemical regime from O3 destruction to O3 production.

A system for assessment of climatic air pollution levels in Bulgaria: description and first steps towards validation

The EC FP6 project CECILIA (http://www.cecilia-eu.org) aims at climate change impacts and vulnerability assessment in targeted areas of Central and Eastern Europe. Emphasis is given to regional climate change modeling at resolution of 10 km. The respective weather patterns influence local air quality. For its assessment EPA Models-3 (MM5, CMAQ, SMOKE) is used. The meteorological input is produced by the climatic version of ALADIN weather forecast system. TNO emission inventory for 2000 is exploited. The boundary conditions are extracted from 50-km runs over Europe made in Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece. Calculations for the period 1991–2000 are performed, results presented.

Air Quality Simulations Over Europe for the Period 1996–2006 with Emphasis on Tropospheric Ozone

A modeling system based on the air quality model CAMx driven off-line by the regional climate model RegCM3 is used for assessing the impact of lateral boundary conditions and anthropogenic emissions on tropospheric ozone over Europe for the period 1996–2006. The RegCM3 and CAMx simulations were performed on a 50 km × 50 km grid over Europe with RegCM3 driven by NCEP reanalysis fields. Average monthly concentration values obtained from the global chemistry climate model ECHAM5-MOZ were used as chemical boundary conditions for the CAMx simulations. The present period (1996–2006) was simulated four times. The first run was forced with time and space invariable lateral chemical boundary conditions and EMEP emissions based on the year 1996. The second decadal simulation was based on ECHAM5-MOZ chemical boundary conditions and emissions both fixed for the year 1996. The third decadal simulation was based on ECHAM5-MOZ chemical boundary conditions with interannual variation but fixed emissions from the year 1996. Finally, the fourth decadal simulation was based on ECHAM5-MOZ chemical boundary conditions and emissions, both having interannual variation. Simulated ozone concentrations are compared against measurements from the EMEP network in order to evaluate the modeling system.

Exploiting GRID for Model Estimates of Regional Climate Changes and Its Impact on the Air Quality of Bulgaria

Intensive long‐term meteorological modeling took place over an area covering Bulgaria with resolution of 10 km. The climatic version of the operational weather forecast model ALADIN was applied for simulating 3 time slices: 1960–2000, 2020–2050 and 2070–2100, following the IPCC scenario A1B. The differences of climatic fields for the 3 periods are presented and interpreted. The created met‐data base is used to estimate the impact of climate changes on air quality, as well. A respective modeling System was created on the base of US EPA Models‐3 tool (MM5, CMAQ and SMOKE). Calculations for the last 10 years of each time slice are performed. Grid technology in the frame of SEE‐GRID‐SCI project is used to perform this enormous volume of calculations as an application abbreviated to CCIAQ (Climate Change Impact on Air Quality). The results are presented and interpreted in the study.